Thursday Night Football: Ravens vs. Bengals fantasy football collapse

On By Littum

You can watch Thursday Night Football: Ravens vs. Bengals at 8:20 PM ET/5:20 PM PT on Amazon Prime Video.

An AFC North showdown is on the line tonight when the division-leading 6-3 Baltimore Ravens take on the 4-5 Cincinnati Bengals — a rematch of an OT thriller from Week 5 (Baltimore won, 41-38). Both teams are coming off Ws – or rather, both teams are coming off a complete shellacking of inferior opponents in Week 9. Suffice it to say, the TNF gods are blessing us tonight.

Let’s go to the story of the tape.

The excitement surrounding a Diontae Johnson trade with fantasy managers seems to have dissipated as soon as it became a reality. On one hand, you had a clearly outstanding wide receiver moving to probably the best situation of his career, getting targets from a reigning MVP who has been playing some of his best football ever. On the other hand, Johnson joined a crowded room of weapons containing, in no apparent order:

  • Derrick Henry

  • Justice Hill

  • Zay flowers

  • Rashod Bateman

  • Nelson Agholor

  • Mark Andrews

  • Isaiah Probably

Each of these players has received significant work from Lamar Jackson this season. So while Johnson is clearly expected to be a part of the game plan most weeks, it was hard to expect immediate production from him. Such was the case in Johnson’s first game as a Raven: 17 snaps, no targets.

But maybe the Ravens will call his number this week.

Ravens-Bengals has become must-see TV lately; the past three regular season games have all scored over 50 total points. It might be easy to expect Henry to be saddled with a lot of carries and Baltimore to run Cincinnati into the ground. But the way Joe Burrow has been slinging it lately, even without Tee Higgins, who is questionable for the game, it’s hard to see this game not closing in or surpassing it’s current 52.5-point projected total.

The Ravens have a weak secondary and have been vulnerable to the pass all season — the bread and butter of Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase (more on him soon). Both offenses need to have all hands on deck in this game. And with Isaiah Likely already ruled out, Johnson has one less obstacle in the way of increased targets. And Johnson has now had a few days to delve further into the Ravens playbook.

Now, don’t expect Johnson to suddenly turn in a monster game, but a few catches and some looks in the red zone — perhaps a trademark quick-separation touchdown — seems like a safe bet for him tonight.

Speaking of monster games, but…

Remember that barn burner in Week 5 between the Bengals and Ravens? Ja’Marr Chase went nuclear for a 12-10-193-2 stat line. And there’s a chance he could beat it this week. Or at least meet that output.

Sure, the Week 5 clash was a back-and-forth affair that featured six lead changes, but there’s one factor from that matchup that won’t be present in this TNF game: Tee Higgins.

Higgins is listed as questionable, but it would be a shock to see him on the field for the Bengals tonight. Higgins also had himself a day in Week 5, going 14-9-83-2. Higgins undoubtedly played a factor in Chase’s output as Baltimore had to account for trying to stop both elite wideouts. So while the Ravens defense may focus more on Chase on his own tonight, he also won’t have as much competition for targets. Not to mention, Mike Gesicki (more on him below) has proven to be a potent weapon in the passing game in Higgins’ place.

These are the games where Chase and Burrow shine the brightest. As Chase himself likes to say, he is “always” open. Expect a big double digit scoring and receiving night from him.

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The default Yahoo Fantasy trade deadline is Saturday, November 16th. Now is the time to measure the strengths and weaknesses of your lists and decide whether it is time to make a move or stand pat. Should you trade an underperforming star to bolster the rest of your lineup? Or do you want to see what you can get from an unexpected high-end performer?

And interesting case study for this is Chase Brown.

It’s hard to find an arrow pointing down for Brown right now. He entered the season with a significant amount of hype as a late-round upside pick. He is coming off his best game of the season, a masterful performance in which he tore the Raiders apart on the ground (27 carries, 120 yards) and through the air (5-5-37-1). This is the kind of cheat production fantasy dreams are made of. He is also free from having to share the load with Zack Moss, who is out indefinitely with a neck injury.

And then the trade window has opened.

As mentioned, this is likely to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair between two bitter rivals. If the Bengals control this game, will Brown be the engine to salt away the clock? If they fall behind, will Brown be in the passing game? Will the addition of Khalil Herbert — who has flashed brief moments throughout his career — make any kind of impact tonight?

If Brown has another good game, should you try to sell high and try to get a true fantasy scholar (and that doesn’t mean Brown isn’t one in his own right)? If he stumbles tonight after his week 9 monster, should you try to see if you could catch him from a league mate?

The choice is yours, fantasy manager. As far as I’m concerned, this is a tough game on the ground for Brown, but if he stays involved in the passing game and is able to score again, I’ll sell as high as I can. The Bengals will live and die by Joe Burrow’s arm — not Chase Brown’s leg.

Sometimes fantasy football is easy. One guy gets hurt, another guy steps in and produces. That’s Mike Gesicki in a nutshell.

When Tee Higgins has missed time this season, Gesicki has been next man up, even though they play different positions. But in the same way that the 6-foot-4 Higgins is a matchup nightmare, so is the 6-foot-6 Gesicki.

I’ll keep this short: You want pieces of both of these offenses in your fantasy lineup for tonight’s game. Gesicki is available in most leagues and plays a position where we are pretty much starved for consistent production. Fire him up again this week.