Hurricane Rafael will make landfall in Cuba as a major hurricane

On By Littum

Hurricane Rafael’s path is now expected to steer away from the southeastern Gulf Coast and is expected to become a major hurricane as it seems to do landing in western Cuba later Wednesday.

Sustained wind speeds are around 110 mph, making Rafael a Category 2 hurricane, just a hair shy of becoming a Category 3 (111-129 mph).

Rafael is still expected to have some influence in the Florida Keys and the southwesternmost tip of the peninsula as it moves through Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Here’s what’s happening with Hurricane Rafael and the latest path.

Where is Hurricane Rafael?

Hurricane Rafael is still moving northwest at about 14 mph. It will move just east of the Isle of Youth over the next few hours and make landfall as a major hurricane in western Cuba later today. From there, Hurricane Rafael will make its way into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to swing almost due west toward Mexico and the southeastern tip of Texas.

  • Tropical Storm Rafael location: 21.4N 81.9W
    • About 60 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth
    • About 130 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba
  • Maximum sustained wind: 110 mph
  • Current movement: Northwest (320 degrees) at 14 mph
  • Minimum central pressure: 994 MB, 29.36 inches

Will Hurricane Rafael Affect Florida?

The Lower and Middle Florida Keys, from Key West to west of the Channel 5 bridge, and the Dry Tortugas are already under a tropical storm warning. These areas are expected to receive between 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.

Tropical storm force winds, especially gusty, are expected to hit these areas later Wednesday and Wednesday evening. A few tornadoes are also possible through Wednesday night over the Florida Keys and the southwest Florida peninsula.

Another tropical disturbance is brewing in the southwest Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a low-pressure area several hundred kilometers east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. It is expected to move west over the next few days, while an area of ​​low pressure may form near the northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday evening or Thursday.

Some gradual development is possible towards the end of the week as it moves north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The system has a low chance of forming over the next seven days.

What dangers can be expected from Hurricane Rafael

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the Lower and Middle Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba today.

RAIN: Heavy rainfall will affect areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, especially across the Cayman Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across parts of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals of up to 12 inches expected across areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands, additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge may raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas with onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the hurricane warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising water moving inland from the coastline. The water may reach the following heights above the ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak load occurs at the time of high water:

  • Dry tortugas…1-3 feet
  • Lower Florida Keys…1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight over the Florida Keys and mainland southwest Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean over the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please contact products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Rafael Warnings, Watches and Alerts

Overview of current watches and warnings for Hurricane Rafael:

A hurricane warning is in effect for:

  • The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

  • The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila
  • Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
  • Dry Tortugas

When will the 2024 hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30.