The battle for House control intensifies as Democrats fight Trump’s agenda and Republicans see full power

WASHINGTON – Republicans have regained control of the White House and the Senate. Now all eyes are on the House of Representatives, which Democrats see as their last line of defense to stop President-elect Donald Trump and his agenda.

The battle for the majority comes with huge stakes.

Will Trump wield a Republican trifecta expected to support his agenda and his demands? Or will he face a House controlled by Democrats that will serve as checks on his legislative agenda and exercise subpoena power to investigate his administration?

With many competitive races still to be held, NBC News has yet to project which party will control the House in 2025. But given Trump’s decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, Republicans are feeling bullish about their chances of retaining their slim majority.

In a statement from West Palm Beach, Fla., where he spent time with Trump and his team, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., predicted he and his party would hold on to power in the lower chamber.

“House Republicans have been successful in securing critical swing states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, while our battle-tested incumbents have secured re-election from coast to coast,” Johnson said in the statement. “Recent data and trends indicate that when all votes are tallied, Republicans will have had our majority, even if we faced a map with 18 Biden-won seats.”

Congressional Democrats have been relatively quiet as they process Trump’s stunning victory, but are not throwing in the towel. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y., sounded an optimistic note Wednesday afternoon, pointing to several bright spots. He said Democrats had held open seats in Virginia and Michigan, scored victories in Alabama and Louisiana due to redistricting and were targeting four GOP seats in New York.

“The house remains very much in play,” Jeffries said in a statement. “The path to take back the majority is now too close to pick up calls in Arizona, Oregon and Iowa — along with several Democratic districts in Southern California and the Central Valley. The party that will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2025, is not yet determined. We have to count every vote.”

House Democrats plan to hold a members-only virtual meeting on Thursday to discuss the election results and next steps forward, according to an invitation shared with NBC News.

A different kind of battlefield

Which party controls the House will have major implications for Trump’s second administration.

“That’s the difference between a GOP rubber stamp and some level of oversight of the Trump administration and control of his legislative agenda,” said Ezra Levin, a co-founder of the progressive activist group Indivisible.

Rep. Brendan Boyle, D-Pa., said it’s a case of “deja vu all over again.”

“I was in Parliament the first time Trump was president. So I know what it’s like,” Boyle said. “Trump equals crazy chaos. Every day Trump worries from one thing to the next. In the morning he fires one of his staffers on a tweet, in the afternoon he tries to buy Greenland. So it is incumbent upon House Democrats, regardless whether they are in the majority or the minority, are as strong and united as ever.”

The House battleground differs from the terrain that decided the presidency and Senate control for the GOP, as it runs largely through the suburbs, where Democrats have held their own in an otherwise disastrous election for the party in 2024. Harris was bleeding Latino voters and younger men , but she gained ground with white women, college graduates and older voters.

Because of the GOP’s paper-thin 220-212 majority, Democrats needed a net gain of just four seats to regain control of the House they lost two years ago. But so far, both parties have picked up key wins — either through redistricting or by upsetting incumbents — maintaining GOP control for now.

In New York, Democrats picked up a seat by defeating freshman GOP Rep. Brandon Williams, who represents a Syracuse-area district. And another first-time Empire State lawmaker, GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro, trailed Democrat Josh Riley with 94% of the vote counted, though NBC News has yet to call it a race.

In Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state won by Trump, Republicans knocked off two vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Republican businessman Rob Bresnahan unseated six-seat Rep. Matt Cartwright in northeastern Pennsylvania’s 8th District, which Trump carried in 2020. Next door, in the 7th District, GOP state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie defeated Democratic Rep. Susan Wild, who had flipped a GOP seat in a 2018 special election.

“There’s no sugarcoating it: this is a bitterly disappointing result,” Wild said in a statement conceding the race and congratulating her opponent.

Republicans also flipped an open seat in Michigan’s 7th District after Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin decided to run for the Senate.

Other races were too close to call. Republican Nick Begich III led Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola by several percentage points in Alaska’s large district with about 70% of the vote. In Arizona, vulnerable GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani was narrowly trailing Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel by about 60%. of the votes counted, while GOP Rep. David Schweikert held a slight lead over Democrat Amish Shah with more than 60% of the vote counted.

In Nebraska, moderate GOP Rep. Don Bacon appeared on track to win re-election despite being a top Democratic target.

Because California is notoriously slow at counting ballots, some of the half-dozen hyper-competitive races there — crucial to which party wins the majority in the House — are likely to take days. But early Wednesday afternoon, the five Republican incumbents whose races the Cook Political Report had rated as “toss-ups” were leading all of their Democratic challengers.

In the Golden State’s 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte was leading Democrat Adam Gray, with about half of the votes cast. In the Central Valley’s 22nd District, GOP Rep. David Valadao had a 10-point lead over Democrat Rudy Salas, with a little more than half the votes counted. In the 27th District, GOP Rep. Mike Garcia narrowly beat Democrat George Whitesides with 65% of the vote. In the 45th District, GOP Rep. Michelle Steel held a 5-point lead over Democrat Derek Tran with more than 60 percent of the vote. And in the 41st District, longtime GOP Rep. Ken Calvert was edging out Democrat Will Rollins, with 60% of the vote counted.

In another California battleground race, NBC News predicted Wednesday that GOP Rep. Kevin Kiley has defeated Democrat Jessica Morse.