Donald TRUMP! Iran’s “worst nightmare” is back in power! Why should Tehran be worried?

Donald Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021 marked one of the most tumultuous periods for US-Iran relations in recent history. With Trump’s return to the White House, Tehran faces the terrifying possibility of renewed confrontations, sanctions and military fringes.

To understand why Iran should be concerned, it is important to examine past policies, geopolitical dynamics, and military strategies that defined Trump’s tenure and could resurface if he regains the presidency.

Trump’s legacy on Iran: A background check

Trump’s foreign policy towards Iran was marked by a sharp departure from the multilateral diplomacy of the Obama administration.

The cornerstone of this divergence was the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018. The JCPOA, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, provided Iran with sanctions in return for curbing its nuclear activities.

Trump, however, blasted the deal as “the worst deal ever,” arguing that it did not sufficiently prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and overlooked its ballistic missile program and regional activities.

The withdrawal led to the reimposition of severe economic sanctions under the “maximum pressure” campaign. This strategy aimed to cripple Iran’s economy, cut its oil exports and isolate it diplomatically.

While these sanctions had a severe impact on Iran’s economy, they also fueled Tehran’s retaliatory measures, including resuming uranium enrichment and bolstering support for proxy forces throughout the Middle East.

Potential Scenarios: Military and Strategic Implications

From a military perspective, Trump’s presidency contained several critical flashpoints that provide clues to his potential future actions. Notable among these was the January 2020 targeted killing of Major General Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran’s elite Quds Force.

The attack was significant not only for its audacity, but also for its message: Trump was willing to cross unprecedented lines to confront Iran’s influence. This event escalated tensions in the region, prompting Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Iraq and raising the specter of total war.

Given Trump’s record, his presidency could reignite similar high-stakes confrontations. The US military’s posture in the region is likely to shift to a more aggressive one, possibly involving increased naval deployments in the Persian Gulf, more frequent freedom operations and joint exercises with regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

It seems clear that the potential for proxy confrontations in places like Yemen, Iraq, and Syria will increase, involving direct and indirect engagements akin to the shadow wars of the Cold War era.

Sanctions game: Economic and diplomatic isolation

Under the Trump administration, economic sanctions were not just a tool, but a weapon used with strategic intent.

The consequences for Iran were dire: oil exports plummeted, the value of the rial fell dramatically, and the economy shrank. When Trump regains power, it is likely that a similar or even tougher sanctions regime would be reinstated. This scenario would lead to profound domestic challenges for Iran, from economic stagnation and inflation to social unrest.

Iran’s regional influence, from its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon to its support for the Houthis in Yemen, has always been a central point of contention. The reimposition of tough sanctions could severely limit Iran’s ability to finance these groups, thereby changing the strategic calculus in the region.

Moreover, Trump’s policies are likely to encourage allies in the region to take a tougher stance against Iran, leading to a diplomatic isolation reminiscent of the pre-JCPOA era.

Ballistic Missiles and Proxy Networks: A Renewed Focus

Trump’s criticism of the JCPOA focused not only on its nuclear provisions, but also on its failure to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional activities. The likelihood that the Trump administration will double down on these aspects is high.

Ballistic missile tests have long been a source of concern for both the United States and its regional allies. Under renewed pressure, Iran could face tougher sanctions targeting its defense and missile development sectors.

This would undoubtedly lead to an arms race-like scenario, with Tehran seeking alternative methods of projecting power and maintaining deterrent capabilities.

A Trump administration is likely to pose serious funding and operational challenges to Iran’s proxy network, which includes Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and Houthi rebels.

Trump’s previous administration, with significant support from then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, launched sweeping measures to target Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its support mechanisms. Similar measures could re-emerge and affect Iran’s strategic depth in places critical to its power projection.

Military Lessons: A Fighter Pilot’s Perspective

From the point of view of military experience and strategic analysis, Trump’s policies have demonstrated the use of unpredictable tactics with high impact, reminiscent of asymmetric warfare strategies often used by middle power states.

This unpredictability can lead to significant shifts in military doctrine and force posture, especially when dealing with a formidable regional power like Iran.

For example, in the context of air superiority and multi-domain operations, the US military, under Trump’s leadership, is likely to integrate advanced capabilities such as stealth bombers, cyber operations and space assets to deter and, if necessary, disable Iranian military infrastructure.

The potential for joint operations involving the Fifth Fleet, stationed in Bahrain, and CENTCOM’s forward air assets could further underscore Iran’s air defense capabilities.

Potential responses by Iran: A military and political perspective

Iran’s military doctrine has historically emphasized asymmetric warfare, focusing on ballistic missiles, fast attack craft, drones and proxy forces.

After Trump’s victory, Iran may double down on fortifying its defense systems, investing in more resilient missile batteries like the Bavar-373 (an indigenous counterpart to the Russian S-300) and expanding its fleet of drones capable of swarm tactics — a growing concern in modern military engagements.

Politically, Iran could pursue a multi-pronged strategy involving closer alliances with other global powers such as China and Russia to offset US pressure. These partnerships can lead to more sophisticated technology transfers and joint military exercises that challenge US and allied strategies in the region.

The Nuclear Dimension: Revisiting Old Concerns

Trump’s previous administration was clear about its stance on Iran’s nuclear program: zero tolerance for any move toward weapons. This approach is unlikely to change.

A revived Trump presidency would see a firm line drawn with red lines that could trigger pre-emptive strikes or covert operations similar to the cyberattacks attributed to the US and Israel, such as the Stuxnet virus that disrupted Iran’s nuclear centrifuges.

The risk of such operations will increase the stakes for Iran, which will necessitate anti-cyber capabilities and fortification of nuclear facilities. Iran’s leaders may also be forced to increase the visibility of their nuclear program as a bargaining chip akin to the Cold War era — a strategy fraught with risks of miscalculation and escalation.

Stakes for Tehran

In sum, Donald Trump’s return to power represents a potential geopolitical reset, one that could destabilize the delicate balance in the Middle East and beyond.

For Iran, this means a recalibration of its military strategies, economic policies and diplomatic maneuvers. The specter of Trump’s hardline policies would undoubtedly reignite debates within Tehran’s corridors of power, pitting pragmatists who might seek limited engagement against hardliners who favor confrontation.

For military strategists, policymakers and global observers, the potential for a renewed Trump administration highlights a high-stakes scenario in which any misstep could escalate into conflict.

• Group Capt MJ Augustine Vinod VSM (R) is COO, AutoMicroUAS. The views expressed in the above paragraph are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of EurAsian Times.
• He tweets at @mjavinod