Fox News projects that Democrat Tammy Baldwin will survive a close race for the Wisconsin Senate seat

The Fox News Decision Desk reckons Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., managed to survive a tough re-election battle and defeat her Republican opponent in the swing state.

She defeated challenger Eric Hovde, a Republican businessman who tried to unseat her. He was notably supported by former President Trump.

Baldwin will now serve a third term in the upper chamber after first being elected in 2012.

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Hovde and Baldwin faced off for a competitive Wisconsin Senate seat. (Reuters)

The race in Wisconsin was considered particularly competitive given the expectation that the state would also be pivotal in the presidential election. With the steep decline in split-ticket voting, a Senate candidate would have a much better chance of winning if the presidential candidate also carried the state.

Fox News Power Rankings rated Wisconsin as a push in the mid-October presidential election. In late September, the Senate race was rated “Leans Democrat”.

Top political handicapper, Cook’s Political Report, had similarly long maintained that the Wisconsin Senate race was in the “Lean Democrat” category, but last month it changed its rating to a “Toss up,” citing a closing polling gap between the candidates.

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Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde arrives to speak at a rally hosted by President Trump on April 2, 2024 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

A source familiar with the matter confirmed to Fox News Digital in October that Baldwin’s internal polling had shown the candidates within the margin of error.

Baldwin ran unopposed in the Democratic Senate primary, and Hovde avoided a competitive primary without prominent opponents in the Republican race.

During the campaign, Baldwin attacked the Republican for his business ventures, highlighting his history as a banker with one of his financial institutions originating in California.

Hovde emphasized Baldwin’s long career in Washington, DC so far and the little daylight between her voting record and the politics of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. He also stressed that Baldwin and her partner Maria Brisbane, a private wealth adviser, are not married, and that because of this the senator avoids having to disclose her financial information and any potential conflicts of interest.

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Late. Tammy Baldwin speaks during the WisDems state convention on June 8, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for The Democratic Party of Wisconsin)

Baldwin earned approval from the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation Board of Directors in early October, a remarkable achievement in rural areas. The group also cited its endorsements of two Republican congressmen, Reps. Derrick Van Orden and Tom Tiffany.

“Senator Baldwin, Representative Van Orden and Representative Tiffany support agriculture in Wisconsin by engaging directly with the agricultural community in their districts,” WFBF President Brad Olson said in a statement.

A woman dons a cheese hat with an American flag on it in Wisconsin. (Reuters)

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“Wisconsin Farm Bureau looks forward to working with Senator Baldwin, Representative Van Orden and Representative Tiffany as they work on behalf of Wisconsin farmers,” he said. “Each has shown strong support for policies that address the critical challenges facing farmers and the agriculture industry, including securing crop insurance, expanding policies that open markets for American agricultural products, and promoting agricultural research and innovation.”

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