Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin will win re-election in Wisconsin, CNN projects

CNN
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Sen. Tammy Baldwin will win re-election in Wisconsin, CNN projects, in a victory for Senate Democrats trying to defend the so-called blue wall states despite losing them at the presidential level and already losing their majority in the chamber.

Baldwin is expected to defeat Republican Eric Hovde in a race that drew a late flurry of attention after he initially appeared less competitive than a few other states where Democrats were on defense.

Baldwin returns for a third term to a dramatically changed Senate. Republicans are currently expected to control 52 seats next year, after flipping West Virginia, Ohio and Montana. CNN has not yet projected the other “blue wall” Senate races — in Pennsylvania and Michigan — as of Wednesday afternoon.

Republicans came home late to Hovde, but Democrats had worked to define him early, seizing on some of his controversial comments to paint him as a California banker who didn’t have Wisconsin voters’ best interests at heart. (The CEO of Sunwest Bank owns a home in Laguna Beach, Calif., but was born and raised in the Badger State.) Democrats also leaned into the abortion issue to bring in nontraditional Democratic voters.

Hovde, who is also the CEO of a prominent Madison-based development company that bears his name, poured millions of dollars into his campaign and had significant outside firepower from GOP groups. But Baldwin — a well-known incumbent who was first elected to the Senate in 2012 after seven terms in the House — raised significant money that also allowed her to reserve advertising time at the more favorable candidate rate.

Her campaign attacked Hovde, for example, for saying that most nursing home patients are unable to votewhile touting her work in the Senate, including efforts to pass the PACT Actwhich expands health care services for veterans exposed to burn holes.

The two-term incumbent had experience courting ticket splitters — she won her previous re-election in 2018 after former President Donald Trump carried Wisconsin two years earlier. But Hovde posed a tougher challenge than his opponent from six years ago. Baldwin made an effort to travel to rural and conservative parts of the state to try to narrow Hovde’s margins, even in places where Democrats were likely to lose. She also garnered the endorsement of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation, a notable gain for a Democrat running statewide.

For most of the race, Hovde took a defensive stance on the air, responding to Democratic attacks — trying to play up his Wisconsin roots or calling Baldwin’s spots to be “ugly.” But the GOP nominee — whose campaign underwent an early fall shake-up — also sought to nationalize the race, trying to tie Baldwin to President Joe Biden and then Vice President Kamala Harris on inflation and the border.

And on the last piece, Hovde and his GOP allies Baldwin accusedthe first gay senator, of a conflict of interest because her partner of six years is a financial advisor to high-end clients. The accusation, which Baldwin vehemently denies, lacks evidence. Republicans also attacked her on transgender issues and tried to paint the senator as too liberal for the state. Baldwin went on the air to say that Hovde “lied” and that he was “not for us.”

While these GOP attack lines may have helped Hovde consolidate the base with which he lagged for much of the race, it wasn’t enough to win over the general electorate.