Will Hurricane Rafael Reach Texas? Storm forecast in the middle of a path change

Hurricane Rafael’s path has shifted slightly to the west, with the storm now targeting southern Texas after it enters the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

Rafael became a hurricane Tuesday night, and National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologists predict the storm will continue to strengthen to major hurricane status before making landfall in Cuba later Wednesday. As of the latest NHC update issued Wednesday morning, Rafael had maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane. It will weaken as it moves over Cuba, but will emerge in the Gulf and maintain hurricane status.

The storm has triggered a number of hurricane and tropical storm warnings, including in the Florida Keys, as it passes nearby.

Initially, NHC forecasts showed Rafael taking aim at Louisiana, although forecasts were unclear as to whether it would maintain tropical storm strength or major upon its arrival.

Now the path has shifted and is directing the storm towards Texas after moving on over the Gulf of Mexico. Experts expect Rafael to maintain hurricane strength through Saturday morning. After Saturday, its forecast is unclear, although meteorologists expect it to weaken to a tropical storm.

Although a new potential destination is on the storm’s horizon, Rafael’s extended journey across the Gulf could contribute to its weakening.

Obstacles in Hurricane Rafael’s path

NHC spokesperson Erica Grow Cei told Newsweek that Gulf of Mexico waters cool below the 80-degree threshold for hurricane strengthening, adding that Rafael will not undergo rapid intensification as it travels across the Gulf, as Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton did, contributing to the storm’s devastation across Florida and USA South.

Wind shear in the area is also expected to be strong, which may contribute to dissolving the storm.

Possibility of historic landfall

If Rafael stays organized long enough to make landfall on the US Gulf Coast, it would be the first. A tropical storm or hurricane has never made landfall in November in Louisiana, where Rafael initially appeared to be heading, or Texas, given that strong winds and cool waters tend to dissolve any storm before it hits this time of year.

The NHC cautioned that it’s too early to know if Rafael will have a U.S. impact beyond the Florida Keys, though experts urged people living on the Gulf Coast to remain vigilant.

Expected Rafael influences

Hurricane Rafael will bring “life-threatening” consequences to Cuba. Storm surge as high as 14 feet in southern Cuba is expected with heavy rainfall as high as 12 inches across higher terrain in Cuba.

The storm is also expected to spawn some tornadoes, which could hit the Florida Keys and the extreme southwestern parts of the Florida peninsula by Wednesday evening.