Uncalled House, Senate election trailing as vote counting continues

On By Littum

Former President Donald Trump has been given a second term in the White House and his Republican Party has won control of the Senate. But control of the House of Representatives is still up for grabs, as is the size of the incoming Senate majority.

While votes are still being counted, here’s a look at the top races that haven’t been called by the NBC News Decision Desk (read more about how these races are called). While some of the battleground states can be expected relatively quickly, it can take days or even weeks to resolve control of the house.

Presidential battlegrounds

Only one state in the so-called blue wall — Michigan — is too close to call, even though Trump has a narrow lead in the state over Vice President Kamala Harris.

In the Sun Belt, Trump also leads in Arizona and Nevada, but Arizona is still too early to call, while Nevada is too close to call.

Alaska, where Trump is leading, is also too early to call.

Senate races left to call

Arizona Senate: Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake in the vote count, but the race is still too early to call. Lake is trailing by Trump’s margin in the state, while Gallego is doing better than Harris. Gallego, a Marine veteran, touted his military service in his race against Lake, a former local television news anchor. Lake ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2022, making false claims that her 2022 race was affected by voter fraud.

Michigan Senate: GOP former Rep. Mike Rogers is locked in a close race against Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in a contest too close to call. Rogers and Slotkin are competing to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow.

Nevada Senate: Republican Sam Brown, an Army veteran who was wounded in combat, is in a very close race against Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, who is seeking his second term in the Senate. Nevada has been narrowly divided in recent elections, with Republican Joe Lombardo flipping the governor’s mansion in 2022 even as Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won re-election. But while Democrats had hoped the state’s abortion ballot could help boost turnout for Democratic candidates, the margin in the race remains extremely tight.

Pennsylvania Senate: Although Trump is expected to win Pennsylvania, the Senate race there is still too close. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is running for a third term against Republican Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive who unsuccessfully ran for the GOP Senate nomination in 2022.

Wisconsin Senate: The race between Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and GOP businessman Eric Hovde is still too close to call. While Democrats have touted Baldwin as a senator who appeals in rural parts of the state, Republicans also flooded the airwaves, painting her as a creature of Washington and drawing attention to the sexual orientation of the first openly gay senator.

House control on the line

Control of the house is still unclear, in part because dozens of competitive races remain uncalled, including a number of key races in California alone. There are also other races that are not expected to be competitive but have not yet been projected because few votes have been counted.

Alaska At-Large District: Republicans are seeking to pick up this statewide seat. Republican Nick Begich leads Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, but he is floating around the 50% threshold required to win the race outright. If he gets below that threshold, the race will go to a ranked-choice vote, but Republicans are confident they’ll still carry the seat in that scenario.

Arizona’s 1st District: GOP Rep. David Schweikert is in a competitive race in the Phoenix suburbs against Democrat Amish Shah, a former state lawmaker.

Arizona 6th District: GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani trails his Democratic opponent, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel, in this competitive district in the Tucson suburbs.

California’s 3rd District: Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley leads Democrat Jessica Morse, a top official at the California Natural Resources Agency, in this suburban Sacramento district.

California’s 9th District: Democratic Rep. Josh Harder narrowly leads his Republican opponent, Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln.

California’s 13th District: GOP Rep. John Duarte is locked in a close race against Democrat Adam Gray, a former state lawmaker, in this Central Valley district.

California’s 22nd District: GOP Rep. David Valadao, one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, is leading his Democratic opponent, former state Assemblyman Rudy Salas.

California’s 27th District: GOP Rep. Mike Garcia is in a close race against Democrat George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff and Virgin Galactic CEO, in this Southern California district.

California’s 40th District: GOP Rep. Young Kim leads his Democratic opponent, retired fire captain Joe Kerr.

California’s 41st District: Democrats have targeted this Riverside County-based district, and GOP Rep. Ken Calvert is in a competitive race with Democrat Will Rollins, a former prosecutor.

California’s 45th District: GOP Rep. Michelle Steel is leading Democratic Army veteran Derek Tran in one of the most expensive races in the country.

House Representative Mike Johnson strikes the gavel before the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol on Thursday, March 7, 2024.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is seeking to lead the House majority for a full term.Bill Clark / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images file

California’s 47th District: Republicans are seeking to flip this open seat in Southern California, and Republican Scott Baugh, a former state legislator, is in a competitive race against former state Sen. Dave Min.

California’s 49th District: Also in Southern California, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin is in a tight race against car dealer Matt Gunderson, a self-described “pro-choice” Republican.

Colorado’s 3rd District: GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert’s decision to run in the adjacent 4th District, which is more Republican, opened up this seat on the Western Slope. Democrat Adam Frisch, who came close to defeating Boebert in 2022, is in a competitive race against Republican Jeff Hurd.

Colorado’s 8th District: Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo is locked in a close race in the Denver suburbs against Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans.

Indiana’s 1st District: Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan is leading in his race against Republican Randell Niemeyer in this Gary-based district.

Iowa’s 1st District: Just a few hundred votes separate Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state representative. It’s familiar territory for Miller-Meeks, who won her 2020 race by just six votes.

Maine’s 2nd District: The Democratic Rep. Jared Golden has been a top GOP target, hovering just above the 50% threshold that would allow him to win outright over Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver (the state holds ranked-choice elections) .

Maryland’s 6th District: Democratic Rep. David Trone’s failed Senate run opened up this Frederick-based district. Democrat April McClain Delaney, a former Commerce Department official and wife of former Rep. John Delaney, is locked in a close race against Republican Neil Parrott, a former state lawmaker.

Montana 1st District: Democratic attorney Monica Tranel is in a tight race against Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, who was Trump’s first secretary of the interior in the meantime in the House of Representatives.

Nebraska’s 2nd District: Harris carried this Omaha-based district and clinched one of the state’s electoral votes, but GOP Rep. Don Bacon is in a close race against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas.

North Carolina’s 1st District: Democratic Rep. Don Davis is in a competitive race against Republican Laurie Buckhout, a military veteran and businesswoman.

New Mexico’s 2nd District: Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez has a narrow lead against former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell, whom he narrowly defeated in 2022.

Nevada’s 3rd District: Democratic Rep. Susie Lee is in a race against Republican marketing consultant Drew Johnson in the Las Vegas suburbs.

Nevada’s 4th District: Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford leads former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, the Republican candidate.

New York’s 4th District: GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is locked in a close race against Democrat Laura Gillen, a former city manager, in this Long Island-based district that was a top Democratic target.

New York’s 19th District: Democratic attorney Josh Riley and GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro are neck and neck in a rematch of their close 2022 race.

Ohio’s 9th District: Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur is locked in an extremely close race with GOP state Rep. Derek Merrin.

Oregon’s 5th District: Democrat Janelle Bynum narrowly leads Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

Oregon’s 6th District: Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas is leading GOP businessman Mike Erickson in another rematch. Salinas beat Erickson by 3 percentage points in 2022.

Pennsylvania’s 7th District: GOP state Rep. Ryan McKenzie narrowly leads Democratic Rep. Susan Wild. NBC News has yet to call the run, but the Wild conceded Wednesday morning.

Pennsylvania’s 10th District: GOP Rep. Scott Perry, a former chairman of the Freedom Caucus, has a slight lead former local news anchor Janelle Stelson, a Democrat.

Texas’ 34th District: Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez faces a rematch against former GOP Rep. Mayra Flores, with Gonzalez slightly ahead.

Virginia’s 7th District: Democrat Eugene Vindman has a slight lead over Republican Derrick Anderson. Both candidates are veterans, and Vindman came into the public spotlight in 2019 when his brother, Alexander Vindman, testified in Trump’s impeachment trial about a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Washington’s 3rd District: Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads Republican Joe Kent, whom she defeated by less than 1 point in 2022.

Washington’s 4th District: The Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse narrowly leads Republican former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler. (Washington’s primaries advance the top two vote-getters to the general election, regardless of party.)

Sessler has Trump’s endorsement of Newhouse, who is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021.

Washington’s 8th District: Democratic Representative Kim Schrier is leading Republican banker Carmen Goers.