Trump wins and defeats Kamala Harris in rejection of the far left flank of the Democrats

In a contest against high-minded ideals, conservative culture floundered, and former President Donald Trump returns to power on a wave of discontent with America’s political left.

Many find themselves stunned and wondering how this could have happened, but no one should be surprised. The signs were there for months.

Donald Trump returns to power on a wave of discontent with the political left in America.

While the polls showed the race to be a dead race, something else was going on just below the surface: For the first time in decades, more Americans identify as Republicans than as Democrats. Just as the leader of the Republican Party was convicted of 34 felonies, was found responsible for sexual abuse and often fell down in apparent incoherence on the stump, The Americans were consistentand in record numbersself-identifying more with his party. In places like Pennsylvania, long-standing Democratic voter registration gains eroded significantly.

Follow MSNBC’s live blog for the latest updates and expert analysis on the 2024 elections.

It’s hard to argue that the GOP has suddenly become more appealing. Actually favorable levels for both parties remain relatively low. And Trump didn’t offer the country a convincing or serious plan to fix his party’s problems. Instead, he offered them an opportunity to reject the perceived left turn of progressivism and to bet on a conservative culture.

In this way, it is perhaps the most asymmetric campaign of our lifetime.

The defeated Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, ran a traditional political playbook: shore up the base, then appeal to swing voters. There were few glaring errors. Her debut provided a jolt of energy. The campaign orchestrated a flawless convention. She killed her opponent in their only debate. And she hit the center, which Trump had long abandoned. It wasn’t good enough.

Of course, any loss falls to some extent on the candidate. Though much improved since her short-lived 2019 presidential run, Harris is still not an extraordinary political talent, and her interviews and unscripted moments left something to be desired. And maybe voters didn’t buy her appeal to the political middle after years of standing as an unapologetic progressive. It wasn’t a natural fit.

On the other hand, there was no question of who Trump is and where he stands. He once again rejected our conventions of how to assemble a majority coalition and created a new one by selecting new voters, often young and male, who find him entertaining and the Democrats an exasperating bore. His campaign was a rejection of the traditional playbook, running instead on grievance and cultural appeals. A man full of lies, he stayed true to who he is throughout.

Still, it’s important to understand that Trump’s victory should not be seen as a broad endorsement of him or his platform. Millions of people who voted for Trump don’t particularly like him. It is no secret to many Trump supporters that he lacks the character and discipline to be president. Trump certainly has his adoring fans, but a vote for Trump was as much a message rejecting the perceived leftward shift across American institutions — not just our politics, but media, entertainment and universities.

Millions of people who voted for Trump don’t particularly like him.

A vote for Trump was not only a vote for border security, but also a vote against borderless multiculturalism. It was a vote against journalists outraged that their paper did not endorse Harris. It was a vote against camps on college campuses. It was a vote against what they see as boys in girls’ sports, no matter how bloated the question. It was a vote against anti-Trump Republicans, who they see as enabling the left.

In response, Democrats accused Trump of being a fascist. To little surprise, after nearly a decade of similar accusations, this rhetoric failed to move persuasive voters. Warnings against authoritarianism and speaking out in defense of democracy are noble, but they were not a winning message. Voters care more about how your plans will concretely improve their lives.

They also care about their lifestyle, as Trump understood. The late conservative firebrand Andrew Breitbart famously said politics is downstream of culture. It’s an ethos embodied in Trump’s campaign. I hate culture war politics. But especially in times of national division and turmoil, it’s a formula that works — and Trump has proven it once again.

With an election so close and a nation so evenly divided, it is foolish to declare the war won. Democrats can easily overlook the lessons of this loss, choosing to lash out at Trump voters instead of seriously reflecting on the party’s damaged brand. But that would be to miss where their weakness lies.

Trump or no Trump, the Democratic Party suffers from a problem that transcends any candidate. Culture matters as much as politics, and they would do well to recognize that now if they hope to stem the rush of people who call the Republican Party — even this one — home.