Here’s what’s at stake for Trump’s criminal cases on Election Day

UPDATE (November 6, 2024, 6 a.m. ET): This piece has been updated to reflect NBC News’ projection of it Donald Trump has defeated Kamala Harris to reclaim the White House.

What’s the best advice Donald Trump’s criminal defense attorneys could give him at this point?

Win the election.

Electoral College results could determine whether the Republican presidential nominee spends the next several years in the White House or in courtrooms fighting to stave off prison terms. In fact, if Trump wins, his criminal caseload will almost certainly be cut in half.

Here’s where his four prosecutions stand, starting with the federal cases actually on the ballot.

Classified documents and obstruction case

In July, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the case in which the former president was accused of illegally withholding national defense information after he left office and obstructing the investigation of his actions. The Trump-appointed judge ruled that special counsel Jack Smith was illegally appointed, and Smith is appealing the case’s dismissal. Whoever loses at the 11th US Circuit Court of Appeals can appeal to the Supreme Court.

But the case could be gone by February if Trump, who has pleaded not guilty in all his criminal cases, takes office in January. The GOP presidential hopeful said he would fire Smith in “two seconds” if he wins. The former president, who pardoned various cronies while in office, could also attempt a legally untested self-pardon. And the Justice Department has a policy against targeting and prosecuting sitting presidents, which could also come into play.

Even if Trump loses the election and Cannon’s dismissal is overturned on appeal, the case’s fate is in jeopardy as long as she presides over it. While there’s a good chance the Court of Appeals will overturn the dismissal and the Supreme Court will allow the reversal to stand, it’s less likely (but still possible) that the Court of Appeals will appoint a new judge to handle it. That’s despite the Florida judge’s pro-Trump actions to date and the possibility that a President Trump could seek to promote her to higher office.

Case of interference in the federal election

Trump’s second federal case is being heard by a judge who is arguably Cannon’s opposite: Obama appointee Tanya Chutkan. The biggest wrinkle in it—if Trump loses and can’t overturn it—is the July Supreme Court ruling that granted the former president broad criminal immunity. That not only narrowed the case, in which he accuses Trump of illegally trying to undermine the 2020 election he lost to Joe Biden, but also leaves unclear how much of Smith’s case might go to trial.

That’s because the high court’s Republican-appointed majority laid out a vague test that eliminated some aspects of Smith’s case, but left it up to Chutkan to decide how much of the rest of the case survives. Whatever the District of Columbia judge decides can ultimately be appealed back to the courts before a trial goes forward. So while Cannon is the murky factor in the docket case, the Roberts Court hovers over this one.

On that note, another case handed down by the justices last term narrowing the obstruction charges for defendants on Jan. 6 could also help Trump, who is accused of obstruction in two of the four counts of his DC indictment.

Case of election interference in Georgia

The Supreme Court’s immunity ruling could also narrow Trump’s state election meddling case — but we’re not even there yet. One has been tied up on a pretrial appeal in the defense’s effort to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. If Willis and her office are fired on the case, then it’s an open question when and even if it will be assigned to a new office or a new prosecutor.

And even if Willis wins the pretrial appeal and Trump wins the election, don’t expect a sitting president to stand trial either. That issue has not been addressed, but Trump’s Georgia attorney, Steve Sadow, has signalled that he is prepared to argue the case on constitutional grounds.

Even if Trump loses and Willis stays on the case, don’t expect a lawsuit in Georgia to proceed against Trump anytime soon. In addition to immunity and other issues still to be resolved, several co-defendants remain on the racketeering charge, which raises its own complications.

Adding another wrinkle is that one of those co-defendants, Trump’s former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, has a pending Supreme Court petition trying to move his charges to federal court. That issue extends beyond Meadows because other co-defendants are seeking the same relief, including Trump-era environmental lawyer Jeffrey Clark. (Meadows and Clark have pleaded not guilty.)

Meadows’ petition will be heard during the judges’ private conference on Fridayso we could soon find out if the court takes it up. It takes four judges to give a review.

New York quiet money case

Finally, there is Manhattan. In May, Trump was convicted of falsifying business records to cover up the repayment of hush money paid to Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The adult film star claimed she had sex with Trump years earlier, which he denied.

Sentencing in that state case has been delayed, until November 26 at the latest. But first, on November 12, Judge Juan Merchan must decide whether the guilty verdicts can stand in light of the Supreme Court’s immunity decision. Although Trump was not convicted in New York for official acts performed as president, his lawyers argue that evidence used by prosecutors to convict him nonetheless contradicts that ruling.

Trump’s lawyers have also signaled that they will immediately appeal a negative immunity ruling, potentially all the way to the Supreme Court. So regardless of whether Trump wins the election, his sentencing in New York could be further delayed by the possible appeal. In any case, jail time is not mandatory in this case, which involves the lowest charges at law among Trump’s four impeachments.

But the fact is that his best defense across all his cases is an election victory.

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