Tammy Baldwin declares victory over Eric Hovde in the Senate

On By Littum

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

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It looks like Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s streak lives on.

On a night when Republicans were sweeping races across the country, Baldwin declared victory early Wednesday morning, saying she had avoided the red tide by narrowly edging GOP challenger Eric Hovde to secure a third term in the U.S. Senate .

“It’s clear that the voters have spoken and our campaign has won,” Baldwin said in a statement. “The people of Wisconsin have elected someone who always puts Wisconsin first, someone who shows up, listens and works with everyone to get the job done.”

With 98.6% of the vote counted, Baldwin led Hovde 49.3% to 48.6%—a margin of 25,614 votes—in a race that drew attention and big money from across the country. Absentee ballots had not yet been counted in Racine and Oshkosh, and votes had not all been counted in different precincts in Oshkosh.

Baldwin officials said the numbers were not final, but that she has taken the lead and the margin is too large for Hovde to make up. The Democratic incumbent trailed his Republican challenger all evening until Milwaukee released its absentee ballots shortly before 4:30 a.m. Wednesday.

Just two hours earlier, Hovde sent his supporters home, but not before blaming the close race on America First candidate Thomas Leager, who was recruited to run by a small group of Democrats posing as conservatives. Leager — a far-right advocate for gun rights — received more than 28,000 votes.

“It’s a shame if the Democrats wouldn’t have planted a plant, it probably would have been called some time ago,” Hovde said. “But you know what? It is what it is.”

In Wisconsin, a candidate can request a recount if the official tally shows the candidate losing by 1 percentage point or less. If a candidate was behind by less than a quarter of a point, the state would pay for the recount. If the candidate is behind by a quarter of a point to 1 point, the campaign would have to pay a few million dollars to cover the cost of the recount.

Baldwin outperformed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, who lost to former President Donald Trump by more than 41,000 votes.

The bruising victory means Baldwin still hasn’t lost a race in her 38 years in politics, as she has steadily risen from Dane County supervisor to federal legislator.

In his statement, Baldwin said Wisconsin voters had rejected the wealthy individuals and special interests who “want to come to our state, spread hatred and division and buy themselves into power.”

“I am proud to return to the Senate as we embrace our state motto, Forward, and continue to fight for the workers, farmers and families who make our state great,” Baldwin said. “From the bottom of my heart, it is an honor to serve the people of Wisconsin.”

Baldwin will serve in the minority in the U.S. Senate after Republicans flipped control of the upper house Tuesday night.

Hovde, 60, made his second bid for the US Senate. He lost in a four-way Republican primary in 2012, finishing second to former Gov. Tommy Thompson.

Some Republicans already suggested that Hovde should consider running for another office.

“He’s automatically the GOP front-runner for governor if he wants to run,” one prominent Republican said, pointing ahead to 2026.

The race, which did not feature a competitive primary, began as a low-key affair. But that changed in the past two months, when Baldwin accused Hovde of unfairly invading her personal life, and Hovde claimed Baldwin spread lies about him in his ads. The two had heated exchanges in their only debate last month.

In the summer, the democratic was in power ahead with 7.8 points over the GOP challenger in the Real Clear Politics average of all poll numbers. But that lead had shrunk to just 1 point in the latest Marquette Law School poll last week.

Analysts have pointed to a number of factors that helped Hovde cut into Baldwin’s once-large lead. Among other things, voters from both parties have lined up behind their party’s candidate as election day approached. In the past, Baldwin has been able to garner much of the Republican support. Hovde also took every chance he could to appear on TV and radio, especially on conservative stations, leading up to Tuesday.

Both candidates spent big during the race

Baldwin raised a record $52.3 million during her six-year Senate term — a 40% jump from what she raised and spent in 2018. By comparison, Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, could spent $43.3 million in his 2022 re-election bid.

Baldwin, currently ranked as the 76th richest senator, put no money into his race. She has a maximum net worth of just over $1 million, according to her annual financial reports.

In contrast, Hovde, a banking and real estate mogul, largely covered the costs of his campaign. Of the $29.5 million he raised for the contest, at least 20 million dollars came from his own pocket. Baldwin spent nothing on his run.

According to his financial disclosure form, Hovde has assets worth between $195.4 million and $564.5 million, much of it in Madison and Milwaukee real estate holdings, corporate securities and shares in Sunwest Bank, the Utah-based financial institution , of which he is chairman of the board and managing director. .

On top of all that, outside groups spent more than $100 million blasting the two candidates.

The deluge of attack ads lowered Baldwin and Hovde’s favorability ratings

Many of these TV ads have attacked Baldwin and her partner Maria Brisbane, a private wealth adviser in New York. Hovde presented the relationship as a potential conflict of interest, with an ad proclaiming “Baldwin is in bed with Wall Street.”

Baldwin and other Democrats said the TV spots were a crude attempt to highlight the fact that she is a lesbian. Baldwin is the nation’s first openly gay senator.

Hovde and Republican groups also cut several ads after Baldwin on transgender issues, something Republicans have done across the country and in presidential elections.

Baldwin and Democrats, meanwhile, have persistently cast Hovde as out of touch with Wisconsinites because of his ties to California, where he owns a $7 million house in Laguna Beach. They also used many of Hovde’s previous statements against him, including remarks that obese people should pay more for health care, that nursing home residents should not vote, and that he understands black culture because his foundation has worked in Africa.

Several of Baldwin’s ads ended with the question, “What’s wrong with this guy?”

The ads had an impact, with both candidates sinking in their favorability ratings, according to the latest Marquette poll.

The survey showed that Baldwin is seen positively by 45% and negatively by 50%, with 5% expressing no opinion. Hovde is seen positively by 36%, and negatively by 48%. About 15% of voters had no opinion of him.

Contact Daniel Bice at (414) 313-6684 or [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @DanielBice or on Facebook at fb.me/daniel.bice.