CBS News poll finds Democrat Casey narrowly leading Pennsylvania Senate race

In an important US Senate race in PennsylvaniaDemocratic incumbent Bob Casey is still ahead. His lead over Republican Dave McCormick currently stands at six points, which is within the margin of error.

More of the state’s voters describe Casey’s views as generally “reasonable” than “extreme” — and in this way he has an advantage over McCormick, who draws more mixed views.

Casey has led the race both times CBS News has previously polled it April and September.

The competitiveness of the race comes as no surprise because many previously undecided voters looked like they were closer to the GOP. While Republicans back McCormick in large numbers, there is room for improvement. But at 84%, his support among Republicans still falls short of Casey’s 92% among Democrats.

Although Casey’s lead is not secure, he has run noticeably ahead of Kamala Harris, that is deadlocked with Donald Trump in the state’s presidential election. Compared to Harris’ margins, Casey does especially well with white men out of college—he loses them, but by half the margin Harris is.

And Trump’s support for McCormick may not help much. Most likely, voters say it makes no difference whether they want to support McCormick. And a third of independents — which McCormick has to deal with — say it does to them less probably back him up. Overall, 7% of Pennsylvania likely voters say they are unsure of their Senate vote.

This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1,273 registered voters in Pennsylvania who were interviewed between October 22 and 28, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education and geographic region based on US Census data and voter records, as well as for past voting. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.6 points.

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