Why the initial Trump-Harris vote count results may be misleading

On November 6, 2024By Littum

Upper line

Votes cast on Election Day tend to favor Republicans, while Democrats are historically favored in early voting, causing blue and red “mirages” depending on which types of votes each state counts first — a major factor in the 2020 race that could appear again on Tuesday, although perhaps less prominently this time.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, … (+) Georgia, October 28, 2024. (Photo by CHRISTIAN MONTERROSA/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Key facts

The “red mirage” refers to early vote totals favoring Republicans as ballots cast in person on Election Day are counted, while a “blue shift” occurs when absentee and provisional ballots are counted together (as Democrats traditionally vote by mail more frequently than Republicans).

Conversely, some states now count their mail-in ballots first, potentially leading to a “blue mirage” in states like Georgia early in the night, followed by a “red shift” when GOP-leaning in-person votes are added to the total.

The “red mirage” phenomenon was identified in a study by the data firm Hawkfish, funded by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, in 2020, correctly predicting then-President Donald Trump could appear to win the race by the end of Election Day, but Joe Biden could ultimately pull ahead.

Ohio State University election law expert Edward Foley coined the term “blue shift” after the 2012 election and reported in a 2019 paper that the Democratic nominee in the previous four presidential elections received at least 22,000 votes after Election Day.

In addition to more Democrats voting absentee, the blue shift is also driven by election reforms after 2000 that made it easier for voters who experienced problems with their registration to cast provisional ballots, a scenario that more often affects people who lean Democratic , which e.g. -income voters and college students, The New York Times reported.

Vote totals typically take longer to calculate in more densely populated urban areas that favor Democrats, as opposed to smaller rural areas that lean Republican, which can also skew early results.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton ended up winning the popular vote, but at the time she conceded (after Trump had reached the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the election) Trump was also up in the raw vote nationally.

The 2020 “blue shift” was similar to 2016, according to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology election lab analysiswhich found counties Biden won counted ballots at a slower rate than counties Trump won, leaning Biden to a point in votes counted after the Thursday after the election, nearly identical to Clinton’s 2016 net gain.

Contra

This year’s blue and red mirages may be less prominent as fewer voters cast absentee ballots compared to 2020 and more Republicans vote early. Several states have also updated their vote-processing rules since the pandemic-affected 2020, which may have led to faster counts.

Which swing states could have red mirages (and blue shifts)?

Wisconsin: Local election officials are not allowed to begin processing submitted ballots until Election Day, a policy that has caused some delays in prior electionsespecially in larger cities like Milwaukee. If smaller, redder rural districts count quickly while deep blue Milwaukee takes a while to find its numbers, we could see a first red mirage.

Michigan: Unlike in 2020, local officials now have more time to process mail ballots, possibly leading to fewer delays and less severe red tape. Advocacy group Protect democracy however, believe a small red mirage is possible if smaller, redder counties report results before big blue counties like Wayne.

Nevada: Most of the state’s population lives in Democratic-leaning Clark County, which may take longer to count its mail-in ballots than the rest of the state, leading to a possible red mirage and blue switch, Protect democracy notes. The state also allows absentee ballots to arrive after Election Day as long as they are postmarked on Tuesday, meaning more mail-in ballots can be added to the total each day.

Which Swing States can have Blue Mirages (followed by Red Shifts)?

Georgia: The state allowed counties to start processing mail-in ballots weeks ago, requiring them to report most mail-in and early counts an hour after polls close — potentially giving Democrats an early lead before GOP-leaning Election Day votes are cast firm. Georgia is counting fast, though, so any mirage will be short-lived.

North Carolina: This state is also counting votes quickly and is expected to start reporting ballots submitted, potentially causing a short blue mirage.

Arizona: The state will start reporting many of its earliest polls before tallying Election Day votes, creating a possible mirage. Officials will then circle back to verify and count “late early” or mail ballots that arrived on or just before Election Day, which could take days.

Will Pennsylvania have a blue or red Mirage?

This must-win state could have an early blue mirage as one preliminary round of ballots submitted are reported, but a red mirage may appear the next time the election day votes are counted. Since county officials can’t begin processing mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day, it could take a while to count all the final mail-in ballots, meaning a blue shift could occur in the days after Tuesday. The state had a very pronounced blue shift in 2020, but the count is expected to be faster this year, notes Protect Democracy.

What we don’t know

How long will it take to print the election. In an election so close, with polls showing Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris polling within less than two points of each other in all seven battleground states, the race may not be called on Election Day. Federal law requires states to complete recounts and resolve any disagreements over the results by Dec. 11. There are some reasons to believe the results will be counted sooner this year than in 2020, including record in-person voting in several states, and fewer absentee ballots than the previous election, which took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to , that more voters cast a postal vote. Some states, such as Michigan, have also changed their laws since 2020 to allow absentee ballots to be counted before Election Day, while others have tightened restrictions, including North Carolina, which passed a new law last year requiring officials to wait until 7: 30 pm – after polls close – to start tabulating results as opposed to doing it in real time.

Key background

Trump used the “red mirage” to allege voter fraud in the 2020 election, insisting that only votes cast on Election Day were valid. He too early claimed the victory in 2020 at 2 a.m. on election night, when at least half a dozen battleground states had yet to be called, declaring “we want all voting to stop . . . we don’t want them finding any ballots at 4 in the morning and adding them to the list.” The election was called for Biden on November 7, after his victory in Pennsylvania put him over the 270 electoral votes needed to secure victory, but Georgia and North Carolina were not called until November 19 and 13, respectively trying to preempt a loss, Trump claimed without evidence during his 2020 campaign that mail-in ballots were susceptible to fraud, a narrative he has largely dropped during his recent campaign, encouraging his supporters to vote any way possible.

Key

Trump also claimed, without evidence, during the 2018 midterms that declining leads for Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and Gov. Ron DeSantis — both of whom ended up winning their elections but by smaller margins than initial Election Day tallies — were a result of “large numbers of new ballots” have “appeared out of nowhere,” he tweetedand adds “Must go with election night!”

What to look for

Trump has repeatedly suggested he won’t accept the results if he loses, insisting Democrats can’t win unless they “cheat.” Trump is laying the groundwork to challenge the results by falsely claiming that Democrats are allowing undocumented migrants to vote and that his lawsuits, Harris’ replacement of Biden at the top of the ticket and negative media coverage of his campaign all constitute election fraud. On Tuesday, he also promoted claims on his Truth Social account that Lancaster County has received “THOUSANDS of potentially FRAUDULENT voter registration forms and submitted ballots from a third-party group . . . on top of Lancaster County being caught with 2,600 fraudulent ballots and forms, all written by the same person.” Officials of Lancaster County said they examined about 2,500 applications from voter collection centers around the county and reported that about 60% appeared to be fraudulent, citing inaccurate addresses, false names and personal identification information, and addresses that did not match Social Security information. Officials said two other counties were also investigating irregularities in applications.

big number

More than 15.2 million That’s how many Democrats have cast early ballots this year per Nov. 4, compared with about 14.5 million Republicans, according to Florida Election Lab data for states that track partisan affiliation among early voters. The numbers show that a greater share of Republicans appear to be voting early this year compared to 2020.