Key House and Senate race to see which party will control Congress

The 2024 election hangs on a knife’s edge, and polls are predicting one of the closest elections in modern American history.

An early wave of polls will close at 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. on the East Coast, giving viewers valuable insight into whether the national environment is trending red or blue — including which messages in contested areas are winning out, which way the suburbs are leaning and whether black voters are delivering for Democrats.

The answers will give Americans an early look at key races for control of Congress and other down-ballot contests, along with insight into how Vice President Kamala Harris fares against former President Donald Trump.

Some of the first polling stations close at 6:00 PM ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The only potentially competitive congressional race to watch in those states is Indiana’s 1st District, where Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan is running for re-election. Neither party’s outside groups have entered the race, but if GOP underdog Randy Niemeyer sparks a revolt, it could herald a red wave.

Both parties believe a wave is unlikely, so other districts will provide better clues as to which way the wind is blowing in competitive congressional races and the marquee presidential contest between Harris and Trump.

Here are some early beams to see:

Two Virginia districts provide a glimpse

Two congressional districts in Virginia where polls close at 7 p.m. ET, could tell tonight’s story: the 2nd District, centered around Virginia Beach, and the 7th District, which includes Fredericksburg. Both districts could be valuable early indicators of how the election plays out in the suburbs, which are key to Democratic victories up and down the ballot.

The Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans is favored in swingy 2. District. If she loses to Democratic rival Missy Cotter Smasal, GOP operatives will worry they’re in for a bad night. It could also mean that Democrats’ messages about protecting abortion rights, preserving democracy and rejecting extremism — big themes in Cotter Smasal’s underdog campaign, as well as Harris’s — resonate.

Kiggans is one of 16 House Republicans running for re-election in districts that President Joe Biden won in 2020. Biden won this seat by just 2 points in 2020, according to an analysis by the NBC News Decision Desk. So this race could also provide some early clues about the presidential election.

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Virginia’s closely divided 7th District pits two political newcomers and Army veterans against each other: Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson, with Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., who is leaving the seat to run for governor. Democrats are slight favorites in the district, a mix of urban and rural northern Virginia, which Biden carried by 6 points four years ago. Vindman played a role in the reporting of the Ukraine phone calls that led to Trump’s first impeachment trial, and his brother, Alexander, testified in those impeachment hearings. Anderson has been stubborn by his use of a fake family photo, posing with his friend’s wife and three children to create the impression that he is a family man in campaign shoots.

“If Jen Kiggans lost in Virginia Beach, it would be an upset. If (Eugene) Vindman lost in Northern Virginia, Virginia-7, it would be an upset. And if these races go to chalk, it reflects, what we expected, which is a really close House race,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan pollster at the University of Virginia.

If one party wins both of those races, they could have a strong night across the country.

North Carolina’s 1st District: Test of Black vote

This district in North Carolina, where the polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET, will provide a valuable early measure of the black vote, one of the most important issues in the 2024 election cycle. The closely divided 1st District is 39% Black, according to Census dataand both parties have aggressively courted voters there.

The rural district has become a tougher climb for Democrats since Republicans redrawn the state’s congressional map late last year. Biden would have won this redrawn district by just 1 point in 2020. And national Republicans got their preferred candidate, GOP veteran Laurie Buckhout, through the primary to take on first-time Democratic Rep. Don Davis.

Important to carrying the district, and to a possible victory for Harris, is strong black turnout and avoiding significant defections to Trump as he seeks to chip away at some young black men. If she fails one of the tasks, it quickly complicates her path to victory, as well as the hopes of Democrats in a number of races down the ballot.

Are Trump’s tactics working? Or is Harris sticking with black voters? Are they highly motivated to vote? Or appear in lower numbers than usual? The results in this district could help answer those questions.

And the answers will have profound implications across the country, including in North Carolina, which is one of seven battleground states expected to decide the presidential election.

Ohio’s 9th District: Trump Country Test

Republicans looking to make gains among the blue-collar voters who are key to the Trump coalition may get some early leads in Ohio’s 9th District, where polls also close at 6 p.m. 7:30 p.m. ET.

Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, first elected in 1982, faces Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin in the Toledo-based district, which Trump won by 3 points in 2020. Kaptur cruised to re-election in 2022 against a deeply flawed opponent, but Republicans are optimistic that Merrin can defeat her this year.

Kaptur is one of five Democrats running for re-election in districts Trump won in 2020, and her race could provide an early indication of whether Democrats in similar districts can hang on. And Kaptur’s ability to outperform Harris will test voters’ appetite to “split” their tickets between the two parties, a dynamic that also has ramifications in many Senate races.