How Detroit Can Win the NFC’s No. 1 seed

On By Littum

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The Detroit Lions has sat atop the NFC for most of the 2024 NFL season. However, one of their biggest challengers has finally caught up with them.

The Minnesota Vikings has been within striking distance of Detroit since Lions beat them in week 7 but after defeating Green Bay Packers 27-25 in Week 17, the Vikings have moved up in the standings, although it may only be temporary.

It will create a critical Week 18 matchup between the division rivals to determine the winner of the NFC North and the conference’s No. 1 seed.

How can the Lions win the No. 1 the seed? They won’t be able to do that in their “Monday Night Football” matchup with San Francisco 49ersbut they should still be highly motivated to win that competition. Here’s why.

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Lions playoff scenarios

The Lions have already clinched a spot in the playoffs and will either be the No. 1 seed in the NFC or no. The 5 seed. It all depends on whether they can fend off competition from the Vikings in the race for the NFC North.

Detroit will be the NFC’s No. 1 seed if one of the following scenarios occurs:

  • The Lions beat the Vikings in Week 18;
  • The Lions beat the 49ers in Week 17 and tied the Vikings in Week 18.

Detroit will be the NFC’s No. 5 seeds in one of the scenarios below:

  • Lions lose to Vikings in Week 18;
  • Lions lose to 49ers in Week 17 and tie Vikings in Week 18;
  • The Lions tie the 49ers in Week 17 and tie the Vikings in Week 18.

As is The Lions’ Week 18 game against the Vikings will serve as a winner-take-all matchup for the NFC’s top seed. Still, Detroit will be focused on its Week 17 matchup against San Francisco, as a loss to the 49ers could narrow the Lions’ path to the No. 1.

Lions vs. Vikings tiebreakers, explained

There are only two ways the Lions and Vikings can end up tied for the postseason standings. They are as follows:

  • Lions lose to 49ers in Week 17 AND beat Vikings in Week 18;
  • The Lions beat the 49ers in Week 17 AND tied the Vikings in Week 18.

The Lions would have the tiebreaker advantage if either situation plays out. Detroit beat Minnesota 31-29 in Week 7, where Jahmyr Gibbs totaled 160 yards and a touchdown on 19 touches, so if the Lions win or tie the Vikings in Week 18, they will have a superior head-to-head record.

Had the Packers defeated the Vikings in Week 17, the tiebreaker scenarios could have been more complex. Detroit and Minnesota could have finished tied for the standings with a Vikings win. That would have forced the NFL to go further down the tiebreaker list, as both teams would have identical head-to-head, division and conference records.

However, the Vikings handled the Packers in a 27–25 victory to nullify that opportunity. As a result, the NFL does not need to go beyond the first tiebreaker (head-to-head results) to find the winner of the NFC North – if the tiebreaker is to be used.

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Lions potential playoff opponents

If the Lions are the NFC’s no. 1 seed, they would get a much-needed first-round bye, after which they would play the lowest remaining seed in the NFC bracket.

If Detroit finishes as No. 5 seed, it will go on the road to face one of the following three teams:

The Buccaneers are currently projected to be the NFC’s No. 4 seed and they only need to win or draw against New Orleans Saints in Week 18 to clinch a playoff spot. If the Rams win or tie vs Seattle Seahawksthat would lock Tampa Bay into the no. the 4 seed.

If the Rams lose to the Seahawks and the Buccaneers beat the Saints, Tampa Bay would become the No. 3 seed, and Sean McVay’s Los Angeles team would become the no. 4.

The Falcons can only be No. 4 seed if they make the playoffs. They come in with just one win to spare Carolina Panthers and a Buccaneers loss.

The Lions beat the Rams 26-20 in Week 1, lost to the Buccaneers 20-16 in Week 2 and did not play the Falcons in the regular season.

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NFL playoff picture

Below is a look at how the NFL playoff picture looks ahead of Detroit’s “Monday Night Football” game against San Francisco:

AFC

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
  2. Buffalo Bills (13-3, AFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*
  3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
  4. Houston Texas (9-7, AFC South winners)*
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
  6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card no. 2)*
  7. Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8), Cincinnati Bengals (8-8).

NFC

  1. Minnesota Vikings (14-2, NFC North leaders)*
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, NFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*
  3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West winners)*
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7, NFC South leaders)
  5. Detroit Lions (13-2, wild card no. 1)*
  6. Washington’s commanders (11-5, wild card no. 2)*
  7. Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card no. 3)*

In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8).

A star

denotes team that has earned a playoff spot. Teams that have won division titles are noted accordingly.