Corbin Burnes agrees to $210 million contract with Diamondbacks

Corbin Burnes is headed to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and it didn’t come cheap.

The 2021 Cy Young Award winner agreed to a six-year, $210 million deal with the Diamondbacks early Saturday morning. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the deal, which has an opt-out for Burnes after two seasons.

Because Burnes, Yahoo Sports’ no. 3 ranked free agent, rejected a qualifying offer from Baltimore, the Orioles will receive selection compensation from his new team.

The contract is the largest in Diamondback history. Burnes, who lives in Scottsdale, Arizona, will now pitch for the local team after reportedly turning down offers from the San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays.

The D-backs make their big move with Corbin Burnes

While the move makes sense from a commuting perspective, it’s a surprise from Arizona.

A year after reaching their first World Series since 2001, the 89-win D-backs narrowly missed the 2024 playoffs and remain firmly in the NL West, arguably the most competitive division in baseball. However, the team is still set up to win, so it spent big on a new weapon after similar big moves by the Los Angeles Dodgers (signing Blake Snell, re-signing Teoscar Hernández) and Giants (signing Willy Adames) with San. The Diego Padres are also lurking.

However, the rotation already proved to be a strength for the D-backs, or at least relatively speaking in light of their high number of free agents and a bullpen that ranked 25th in ERA last season. They still decided to spend big to add another headliner along with Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt. Jordan Montgomery is also still under contract after a disastrous 2024 — so bad D-backs owner Ken Kendrick called his contract a “terrible decision” — but he’s now a clear trade candidate if a team wants to try to buy low.

It’s also encouraging that the D-backs are spending despite being one of the teams to have their RSN implode with the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy. Local cable revenue is a fundamental part of the economy for teams like Arizona, but they’re still going after it.

Beating the Giants’ bid for Burnes stood out given how competitive some teams in the NL West have been in free agency. However, Arizona benefited from a more favorable income tax situation compared to Burnes’ more significant suitors.

Meanwhile, the deal ends Burnes’ tenure with the Orioles after one season. The AL East contenders made a splashy trade last winter by acquiring the right-hander from the Milwaukee Brewers, but it ended up being a one-year rental.

It’s not like Burnes didn’t deliver for Baltimore. From his opening day start (6 innings, 1 hit, 1 run, 11 strikeouts) to his only postseason start (8 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 3 strikeouts), Burnes was the bona fide ace the Orioles sought when they traded for him, but his free agent market was likely out of Baltimore’s price range.

Corbin Burnes has been one of MLB’s best pitchers for 5 years, but could he be about to decline?

Looking over the last half-decade, there’s no doubt that Burnes has been one of MLB’s best aces.

Since the 2020 season, Burnes ranks third in MLB in innings pitched with 816 2/3, fourth in ERA at 2.88, sixth in FIP at 3.01, second in strikeouts with 946, and fourth in bWAR at 18.6. There’s nothing you can look for in a pitcher that Burnes isn’t good at.

It remains an impressive success story for a player who was justifiably one of the worst pitchers in MLB in 2019. In 49 innings, Burnes posted a blistering 8.82 ERA. That remains the worst ERA of any pitcher in Brewers history with at least 40 innings. Only 23 pitchers in MLB history has received a worse grade in so many rounds.

Then Burnes turned his career around by introducing a cutter that is now his signature pitch. That said, he actually reduced his cutter usage from 55.4% to 45% this past season while still having a great season.

However, there are some reasons to worry that Burnes may be in decline, starting with the fact that he is already north of 30 years old. After posting whiff rates above 35% from 2019 to 2022, he dropped below 29% in 2023 and 2024. This past season, Burnes both swung and made contact with batters in the zone at the highest rate since his miserable 2019 season.

Burnes’ velocity has held steady in his career, but in 2024 he was striking out batters at an average rate by MLB standards and at an abysmal rate by his own standards. Quite a few ERA predictors haven’t been fans of his peripherals over the last two seasons either.

But what matters are results, and Burnes has delivered. Even a pitcher performing at 90% of Burnes’ prime is one of the most valuable pitchers in the game, and there are pitchers older than Burnes who are still being paid tens of millions a year.

It’s fine to give Burnes that much money and he would be a great addition to any team. It’s just important to pay attention to what trends he needs to stay among MLB’s elite.