How Ravens, Steelers Can Win AFC North

On By Littum

  • Jamison Hensley, ESPN staff writer25 December 2024 at 6:00 a.m. ET

    Close

      Jamison Hensley is a reporter covering the Baltimore Ravens for ESPN. Jamison joined ESPN in 2011 and covered the AFC North before focusing exclusively on the Ravens beginning in 2013. Jamison won the National Sports Media Association Maryland Sportswriter of the Year award in 2018 and authored a book titled: Flying High: Stories of the Baltimore Ravens. He was the Ravens beat writer for the Baltimore Sun from 2000-2011.

HOUSTON – The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers won’t be able to win the AFC North this Christmas. But their matches on Wednesday will be factors in crowning the champion of this closely contested division.

With two weeks left in the regular season, the AFC North is essentially a coin flip. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Ravens have a 53.2% chance to win, while the Steelers have a 46.8% chance.

All eyes will be on Wednesday’s games when Pittsburgh hosts the Kansas City Chiefs (1 p.m. ET, Netflix) and Baltimore plays at the Houston Texans (4:30 p.m. ET, Netflix).

“I pretty much know the scenarios to a certain extent — the ones that matter,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. “I think you have to know that as a head coach going into a tie game. What do you want to play for if it comes down to it? How does a tie versus a loss versus a win benefit us if it ever comes to ?”

Not much separates the Ravens and Steelers, who have the same overall record (10-5) as well as the same mark in the division (3-2).

Despite losing 34-17 at Baltimore on Saturday, the Steelers control their destiny in the AFC North because they have the advantage among common opponents, which is the third tiebreaker. Pittsburgh is 7-3 among common opponents and Baltimore is 7-4. Pittsburgh also has the edge in the conference record, which is the fourth tiebreaker. Pittsburgh is 7-3 in the AFC, while Baltimore is 6-4.

So the Steelers would win the division if Pittsburgh and Baltimore both win their remaining two games. But Pittsburgh has a tougher schedule, playing the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (14-1) and the Cincinnati Bengals (6-8). Baltimore plays at the Texans (9-6) and returns home to face the Cleveland Browns (3-11).

“We’re singularly focused on our next opportunity,” Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. “We get a next goal; we focus our energy there. The big picture takes care of itself.”

The Ravens are slightly favored to win the division because of Wednesday’s games. Baltimore is a 5.5-point favorite at Houston and Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point home underdog against Kansas City, according to ESPN BET.

Excluding ties, there are eight possibilities that could arise for the Steelers and Ravens in Weeks 17 and 18. Pittsburgh wins the AFC North in five of them and Baltimore repeats as division champion in the other three.

Here are the scenarios:

— If the Steelers win, the Steelers win the division with a better record among common opponents.

— If the Ravens win AND the Steelers lose at least one game, the Ravens win the division with a better overall record.

— If the Ravens beat the Texans and lose to the Browns AND the Steelers lose to the Chiefs and beat the Bengals, the Steelers win the division with a better division record.

— If the Ravens lose to the Texans and beat the Browns AND the Steelers beat the Chiefs and lose to the Bengals, the Ravens win the division with a better division record.

— If the Ravens lose to the Texans and beat the Browns AND the Steelers lose to the Chiefs and beat the Bengals, the Steelers win the division with a better conference record.

— If the Ravens beat the Texans and lose to the Browns AND the Steelers beat the Chiefs and lose to the Bengals, the Steelers win the division with a better record among common opponents.

— If the Ravens win one of their last two games AND the Steelers lose, the Ravens win the division with a better overall record.

— If the Ravens and Steelers lose, the Steelers win the division with a better conference record.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson isn’t worried about those scenarios.

“We’re trying to win regardless,” Jackson said. “I really don’t care what another team is up to. I don’t. I’m trying to win.”

The Steelers and Ravens have both earned playoff spots, but there’s a big difference between entering the postseason as a division winner and a wild card. The AFC North champion hosts at least one home game in the playoffs, and a wild-card team will most likely need to win three road games to reach the Super Bowl.

There have only been five instances where a team has won three road playoff games to reach the Super Bowl. The only team to do this in the last 13 years was the Super Bowl LV-winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who accomplished the feat during the 2020 COVID-19 season when fan attendance was limited.

On Saturday, the Steelers could have clinched the AFC North title with a win. Now, after two straight losses, Pittsburgh is in contention for its first division title since 2020.

“The best thing we can do is keep our heads up,” Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson said. “I think the best thing we can do is just look forward to playing in front of our fans and come home and fight for what we came here to do and I think that opportunity is still there in front of us.”