Top picks from the NFL betting divisions for Chiefs-Steelers and Ravens-Texans on Christmas Day

Merry Christmas! Today we have an NFL doubleheader on tap as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans host the Baltimore Ravens. Let’s examine how smart money leans on both games with our VSiN NFL betting split, updated every 5 minutes and coming straight from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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The Chiefs (14-1) have won five straight and just held off the Texans 27-19, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Steelers (10-5) have lost two straight and just got rolled by the Ravens 34-17, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs.

The early lookahead opening for this game was Steelers -1.5 at home. However, we quickly saw a significant adjustment in favor of the Chiefs, turning Kansas City into a 1.5-point road favorite. The public thinks that line is far too short, with 64% of spread bets at DraftKings and 72% of spread bets at Circa putting points in favor of Kansas City. This lopsided support pushed the Chiefs up from -1.5 to -3. However, once the key number 3 was available, we saw a sharp buyback at Steelers +3, dropping the line back to 2.5. Several shops juice the Steelers +2.5 (-115), while others drop to +2. In other words, the game day movement is breaking back against Pittsburgh plus the points.

Pittsburgh has notable contrarian value, receiving only about a third of the tickets in a high-stakes, nationally televised game. The Steelers have buy-low value as an unpopular underdog on a losing streak against a sell-high favorite on a winning streak. This is also a wiseguy system matchup with “Mike Tomlin as a dog” who has covered almost 65% of the time in his career when he got points. Pittsburgh will also welcome back star WR George Pickens, who is expected to play after missing the last three games. Those looking to go against the Steelers but also missed the key +3 could instead target Pittsburgh in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Steelers up from +2.5 to +8.5 (or +2 to +8), players can strategically pass through the top 3 and 7 key numbers.

The early opening total was as low as 41. Due to Pickens’ return, we saw a sharp adjustment on the overflow, pushing the total up from 41 to 45. The Pros and Joes both seem to be leaning over. At DraftKings, over 63% of bets and 65% of dollars receive. At Circa, the overflow takes 59% of bets and 66% of dollars. The weather looks ideal in Pittsburgh as the forecast calls for high 30s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.

Player prop to consider

Noah Gray Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110): Gray has gone over this number in 5 of his last 6 games and 9 of his last 12 games. He has also surpassed this number in 6 straight road games. This is also a buy-low play on Gray as he only caught one pass for 10 yards last week against the Texans. Gray ranks 4th on the team in receptions and targets. He is also tied with DeAndre Hopkins for the third-most receiving yards (430).

The Ravens (10-5) have won two in a row and just outscored the Steelers 34-17, covering as 7-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Texans (9-6) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end as they fell to the Chiefs 27-19 and failed to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public rushes to the window to put points on the Ravens, who receive 80% of spread bets at DraftKings and 79% of spread bets at Circa. This lopsided support drove Baltimore up from -3 to -6, with some stores like Circa even reaching -6.5. All the movement and responsibility has been on Baltimore’s lay chalk with no apparent buyback on the Texans. The Ravens will likely be popular public teaser (-6 down to a pick’em), which means Baltimore just needs to win the game straight up and not cover the spread. Houston is the best “bet against the public,” as the Texans receive less than a quarter of spread bets across the market. The Texans also have buy-low value as a bloated line contrarian dog, as they opened at +3 and are now as high as +6.5.

In terms of the total, it opened at 47.5 and most of the market is down a bit to 47. This half point dip is notable because the public is banking up (73% of bets at DraftKings and 68% of bets at Circa), however, the total fell. This indicates a sharp reverse line move on a lower scoring play. Baltimore is 12-3 over, the best over teams in the NFL. However, Houston is 10-5 under, tied for the best team in the NFL.

Player prop to consider

Joe Mixon over 22.5 receiving yards (-110): Mixon has surpassed this number in five straight home games. This is also a buy-low over play as Mixon only caught one pass for 14 yards last week against the Chiefs. The Texans are a dog in a high total game, which means they will likely need to focus on the passing game if they fall behind and need to catch up. This game will also be played indoors, which bodes well for offensive output on a fast track.