2024 NFL Week 16 Betting: New Orleans Saints-Green Bay Packers Odds, Picks, Lines

On By Littum

In the final game of Week 16, the Green Bay Packers look to keep pace in the NFC playoffs when they host the New Orleans Saints from frigid Lambeau Field on “Monday Night Football.” The Packers have won eight of their last 10 games and enter Monday’s contest as a two-touchdown favorite over a Saints team starting a backup quarterback. Jordan love has been playing at an elite level recently and hasn’t thrown an interception over his last four games. The Packers’ offense has also received a huge boost Josh Jacobswho ranks third in the league in rushing yards. Jacobs has scored a rushing touchdown in each of his past five games and faces a weak New Orleans run defense. Jacobs is -350 to score a touchdown Monday night.

Meanwhile, the Saints look set to pull off a huge upset without their best player on the field. Alvin Kamara was ruled out until Monday with a groin injury. Know Miller will get the start to the New Orleans backfield with Spencer Rattler below the middle. Last week, Rattler replaced Jake Henner and led a nearly 17-point comeback in the second half against the Washington Commanders. After leading the Saints to four scoring drives in Week 15, Rattler will look to help New Orleans cover for the second straight game on Monday night.

Here’s everything you need to know to bet on the Saints-Packers and Eric Moody’s favorite “Monday Night Football” bet.

Odds current as of time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Packers -14.5
Moneyline: Packers (-1200), Saints (+700)
Over/Under: 42.5

Notice in the first half: Packers -9.5 (-120), Saints +9.5 (-110)
Money line in the first half: Packers (-600), Saints (+380)
Packers’ total points: 28.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Saints Total Points: 13.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Matchup Predictor (per ESPN Analytics): Packers by 14.5 points (82.7% chance to win)

The props

Passed

Jordan love total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Love Total Passed TDs: 1.5 (Over -145/Under +110)
Spencer Rattler total passing yards: 174.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Hating

Josh Jacobs total rushing yards: 89.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Know Miller total rushing yards: 49.5 (Over -135/Under +105)

Receiver

Christian Watson total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over Par/Under -130)
Romeo Doubs total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over Par/Under -130)
Jayden Reed total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Tucker Kraft total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over Par/Under -130)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Juwan Johnson total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Jacob’s total receiving yards: 14.5 (Over -135/Under +105)

Eric Moody’s chooses

Packers -14.5

This is a big number, but this is a must-win game for the Packers to keep their playoff hopes alive. Lambeau Field is one of the toughest places to play, especially in December, and Green Bay hosts a Saints team that has been hit hard by injuries. The Saints defense is also giving up the third most yards per game to opponents, while the Packers defense is fourth in takeaways. With Spencer Rattler stepping in at QB for New Orleans, things are not looking good for them. Expect Green Bay’s run game to dominate behind an offensive line that ranks seventh in run-block win rate.

Josh Jacobs over 21.5 rushing attempts.

That line is high, and Jacobs has only hit it twice in his last five games, but the Packers rely heavily on the cold-weather running game, especially in December. I’d be surprised if Green Bay doesn’t give Jacobs 22 or more carries. Plus, the Saints’ defense ranks 30th in run stop win rate, making it a definite weakness. The Packers would be smart to take advantage of this as it could open up the passing game. If Green Bay stays committed to the race, Jacobs should easily hit that mark.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

  • The Packers haven’t been double-digit favorites since 2022. Their biggest favorite roll under Matt LaFleur is 13.5 (done three times, last in 2020). Jordan Love has never been more than a 6.5 point favorite. The Packers have covered four straight as double-digit favorites.

  • The Saints have been double-digit underdogs once in the last 19 seasons (+11.5 at Buccaneers in 2021, won 9-0). They haven’t been at least 13 point underdogs since 2005.

  • The Saints are 3-14 ATS in primetime games over the last five seasons, the worst record in the NFL. The Packers are 21-11 ATS in primetime games under Matt LaFleur, most covers in the NFL during that span (3rd best ATS percentage).

  • The Packers have covered four straight games, the second-longest active streak (Broncos: 5).

  • Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

  • The Saints are 1-6 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • The Saints are 0-3 ATS on extra rest this season.

  • Three consecutive Saints games have gone below the total.

More from ESPN