Ravens Clinch Spot, Eagles Falter

On By Littum

The NFL regular season is almost down to its final two weeks.

Looking across the playoff landscape, five spots are already locked up in the AFC, including three division crowns. Then there’s the NFC, where three teams are in it, and the Green Bay Packers can make it a fourth with a win Monday night football.

As the season draws to a close, let’s take a look at where the AFC and NFC playoff pictures sit, along with information on what needs to happen down the stretch before the teams can make it.

Additionally all playoff probabilities courtesy of The Athletic’s model.

AFC: WHO’S IN

Record: 14–1, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff Probability: 100%

By beating the Houston Texans on Saturday, the Chiefs moved within one win or loss of the Buffalo Bills as they clinched the AFC’s top seed for the fourth time in Patrick Mahomes’ career.

Record: 12–3, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff Probability: 100%

Buffalo held on to beat the New England Patriots, keeping hopes alive for the top seed. But in the worst-case scenario, at least the Bills have earned the second seed.

Record: 10–5, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff Probability: 100%

By virtue of a conference-record tiebreaker, the Steelers are still ahead of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North race despite losing to them on Saturday. But the Steelers now play the Chiefs while Baltimore visits Houston for Christmas.

Record: 9–6, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff Probability: 100%

Houston has won the AFC South title and can’t move up higher than the third seed.

Record: 10–5, runner-up, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff Probability: 100%

The Ravens have an opportunity to move into the third seed next week if they beat the Texans and the Steelers lose at home on Christmas to the Chiefs.

Record: 9–6, runner-up, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff Probability: 94%

If the Chargers beat the Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders over the last two weeks, they will be either the fifth or sixth seed.

Record: 9–6, third place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff Probability: 75%

Denver needs to win one of its last two games to make the playoffs. The Broncos play Saturday on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals before returning home to host the Chiefs in Week 18.

IN THE HUNT

Indianapolis Colts (7-8): The Colts need to win and get help, but they close out the season with games against the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Miami Dolphins (7-8): Miami also needs to win and get favorable results elsewhere. The Dolphins have road games against the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets.

Cincinnati Bengals (7-8): Cincinnati must win over the Broncos and Steelers, then have at least one additional loss from the Broncos, Dolphins and Colts.

NFC: WHO’S IN

Record: 13–2, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff Probability: 100%

The Lions handled the Chicago Bears with ease after losing to the Bills last weekend. Next up is the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night at Levi’s Stadium before hosting the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18.

Record: 12–3, first place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 0

Playoff Probability: 100%

Philadelphia lost to the Washington Commanders and saw quarterback Jalen Hurts suffer a concussion, potentially jeopardizing the next few weeks. Still, one more win or loss by Washington and the Eagles win the NFC East.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford and the Rams scored 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter during Sunday’s 19-9 win over the Jets. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn images

Record: 9–6, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff Probability: 83%

Los Angeles has put themselves in a great position by beating the Jets. The Rams are a game up in the NFC West with the Arizona Cardinals next Saturday night at SoFi Stadium.

No. 4: Atlanta Falcons

Record: 8–7, first place, NFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff Probability: 48%

Atlanta now controls its own destiny. If the Falcons can win their final two games, starting with Washington on Sunday night, they will clinch the NFC South and host at least one playoff game.

Record: 13–2, runner-up, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff Probability: 100%

Minnesota continued to move toward the No. 1 seed in the NFC, despite currently being a wild-card team. With two more wins, however, against the Green Bay Packers and Lions, the Vikings will gain home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs.

Record: 10–4, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff Probability: 99%

Green Bay plays Monday night at home against the New Orleans Saints. If the Packers win, they remain the No. 6 seeds. With a loss, they would fall behind in Washington.

Record: 10–5, runner-up, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff Probability: 94%

By beating the Eagles, Washington has reduced its magic number to one. If the Commanders win one of their last two games, starting with next Sunday night at home against the Atlanta Falcons, they are in the playoffs.

IN THE HUNT

Seattle Seahawks (8-7): Seattle losing at home to the Vikings doesn’t end its postseason dream, but now the Seahawks need to win and get help.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8–7): The Buccaneers were upset by the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. To win the division, Tampa Bay must win at least one more game than the Falcons over the last two weeks.