Fantasy basketball picks and bets for Sunday

On By Littum

  • Jim McCormick, Special to ESPN.com22 December 2024 at 12:00 PM ET

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      Jim McCormick is a fantasy football and fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com.

Sunday’s slate offers three matchups to focus on to formulate fantasy and betting strategies. If Saturday’s 12 games felt a bit overwhelming to dissect details, Sunday offers a more accessible pool of players and props to consider.

The games begin early in the evening with the Toronto Raptors hosting the Houston Rockets in a matchup of two young teams going in opposite directions. The Rockets’ elite defense is a driving factor in this contest’s relatively modest point total (224.5). That said, there is a certain second-year floor-spacer for the Raptors worth streaming, which you can read below.

The Sacramento Kings host the Indiana Pacers in a matchup with a robust point total of 236.5, 12 more than the game in Toronto. The Kings lost to the Lakers on Saturday largely due to a lackluster offensive performance. With these franchises intertwined ever since the epic trade between Domantas Sabonis and Tyrese Haliburton, Sunday offers a fun matchup between teams with offensive upside.

The finals feature the New Orleans Pelicans hosting the Denver Nuggets in another game with a total north of 230 points (232.5). The Pelicans lost to the New York Knicks on Saturday, though we saw more production from the team’s duo of two-way swings. Given the Pelicans’ lack of size, Nikola Jokic might break some (more) records.

Let’s take a closer look at the players and matchups for Sunday’s action and find some angles of interest.

Sunday’s fantasy stream team

Trey Murphy III, SF/SG, New Orleans Pelicans (listed in 53.2% of ESPN leagues)

With Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram both sidelined with respective injuries, Murphy has become the team’s top scoring threat in recent games. Even with the team’s tandem of gifted backcourt creators, it’s Murphy’s volume shooting and growing skills from the wing that have led to positive results for the Pelicans’ offense. Even on the second night of a back-to-back, Murphy is an ideal plug-and-play option against the Nuggets. Herbert Jones also deserves attention for those in need of defense.

Gradey Dick, SG/SF, Toronto Raptors (39.8%)

Gradey Dick is enjoying a hot stretch from beyond the arc, though the Raptors’ overall play has remained inconsistent. The Rockets are missing Tari Eason, which could mean a little more freedom for the Raptors’ shooting guard to find his shot. After all, it only takes a sliver of space and time for him to get going from the deep.

Obi Toppin, PF (15.7%) and Andrew Nembhard, PG/SG (7.4%), Indiana Pacers

With a limited slate, it makes sense to give Toppin a chance in your lineup. After all, he has been very productive despite his specialized role; flirting with double-double results with stellar defensive performances in most outings over the past two weeks. As for Nembhard, he has been a productive combo guard over the past week and could be busy against a fast and sharp Sacramento backcourt.

Best bet on Sunday

Odds know ESPN BET

Tyrese Haliburton over 8.5 assists (-140)

Who doesn’t love a good revenge tale? Although, honestly, this trade worked out so well for each side that it might just be a cozy reunion. Either way, Haliburton will pick up the pace. His assists tally speaks to a somewhat normal matchup, though the total continues to creep up as tip-off approaches. That suggests banking on offense could pay off on Sunday night.

Obi Toppin over 4.5 rebounds (-125)

One over on a player who doesn’t normally get a ton of game time can be an annoying experience, but Toppin has a low enough floor to make this game palatable. He has surpassed that number in seven of his last eight games and faces a Kings with just one elite rebounder (Sabonis). Expect Toppin to crash the boards from all angles in what could be an ideal setup for his skill set.

Herbert Jones over 1.5 steals and Trey Murphy III over 0.5 steals (+165)

This rowdy duo claims to steal the elite, with Jones among the best in the league. Both should play well north of 30 minutes in a game against Denver wings, who are not proven slashers.

Alperen Sengun over 10.5 rebounds (-130)

Sengun ranks ninth in the NBA with 18.9 rebound chances per game. game as his role as a fixture on this rising Rockets team has proven productive. He’s in a great spot to score this goal against a Toronto team thin on the frontcourt past Jakob Poeltl.

Projections and damage reports

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Damage Consolidation by Rotowire.com. Odds know ESPN BET

Players in italics are available in most ESPN leagues

Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors
6 p.m. ET

Line: Rockets -8.5 (-105) | Raptors 8.5 (-115)
Money line: Rockets -360 | Raptors +280
Total: 224.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI projection: Rockets with 5.6, straight up 68%, 224.3 total points.

Damage report:
Rockets: Tari Eason, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, (OUT – Elbow); Davion Mitchell, (GTD – Shoulder); Bruce Brown, (OUT – Knee); Jakob Poeltl, (OUT – groin)

Rocket Projections:

  • Alperen Sengun, C: 39.2 FPTS (19.4 pts, 9.7 reb, 5.4 ast)

  • Fred VanVleet, PG: 34.7 FPTS (15.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 5.9 ast, 2.6 3PM)

  • Jalen Green, SG: 31.4 FPTS (20.1 pts, 4.2 reb, 2.9 ast, 2.4 3PM)

  • Dillon Brooks, SG/SF: 24.3 FPTS (13.9 pts, 3.8 reb, 2.1 ast, 2.2 3PM)

  • Jabari Smith Jr., PF/C: 23.9 FPTS (13.0 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.7 ast)

  • Amen Thompson, SG/SF/PF: 21.5 FPTS (11.2 pts, 5.7 reb, 2.3 ast)

  • Cam Whitmore, SF: 16.5 FPTS (10.5 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.3 ast)

Raptors projections:

  • Scottie Barnes, SG/SF/PF: 40.4 FPTS (20.2 pts, 7.5 reb, 6.7 ast, 1.8 3PM)

  • RJ Barrett, SG/SF/PF: 38.1 FPTS (22.7 pts, 6.2 reb, 6.0 ast, 1.9 3PM)

  • Gradey Dick, SG/SF: 24.7 FPTS (15.4 pts, 3.0 reb, 2.2 ast, 2.4 3PM)

  • Ochai Agbaji, SG/SF: 19.9 FPTS (10.2 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.8 ast)

  • Jonathan Mogbo, PF: 18.1 FPTS (7.2 pts, 5.6 reb, 2.2 ast)

  • Ja’Kobe Walter, SG: 16.1 FPTS (8.1 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.7 ast)

  • Davion Mitchell, PG: 15.1 FPTS (6.8 pts, 1.5 reb, 3.4 ast)

Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings
6 p.m. ET

Line: Pacers 2.5 (-115) | Kings -2.5 (-105)
Money line: Pacers +110 | Kings -130
Total: 236.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI projection: Kings by 2.4, straight up 58%, 237.9 total points.

Damage report:
Pacers: Isaiah Jackson, (OUT – Achilles); James Wiseman, (OUT – Achilles); Ben Sheppard, (GTD – Oblique); Aaron Nesmith, (OUT – Ankle)
Kings: Devin Carter, (OUT – Shoulder)

Pacers projections:

  • Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG: 40.8 FPTS (19.4 pts, 3.3 reb, 7.6 ast, 3.1 3PM)

  • Pascal Siakam, PF: 38.5 FPTS (22.0 pts, 7.4 reb, 3.6 ast)

  • Bennedict Mathurin, SG/SF: 27.2 FPTS (17.2 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.2 ast)

  • Myles Turner, C: 26.2 FPTS (15.0 pts, 6.4 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.7 blk)

  • Andrew Nembhard, PG/SG: 23.7 FPTS (11.8 pts, 2.7 reb, 4.6 ast)

  • TJ McConnell, PG: 20.9 FPTS (10.4 pts, 2.1 reb, 3.4 ast)

  • Obi Toppin, PF: 19.2 FPTS (9.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 2.1 ast)

King’s Projections:

  • De’Aaron Fox, PG: 44.7 FPTS (26.5 pts, 4.5 reb, 6.5 ast, 2.2 3PM)

  • Domantas Sabonis, PF/C: 43.7 FPTS (21.1 pts, 12.8 reb, 6.4 ast)

  • DeMar DeRozan, SF/PF: 34.7 FPTS (20.5 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.2 ast)

  • Malik Monk, SG/SF: 32.8 FPTS (17.1 pts, 3.7 reb, 5.2 ast, 2.2 3PM)

  • Keegan Murray, SF/PF: 24.5 FPTS (12.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.8 3PM)

  • Kevin Huerter, SG/SF: 16.5 FPTS (7.8 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.7 ast)

  • Keon Ellis, SG: 12.1 FPTS (5.3 pts, 1.7 reb, 1.3 ast)

Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
7 p.m. ET

Line: Nuggets -9.5 (-120) | Pelicans 9.5 (EVEN)
Money line: Nuggets -450 | Pelicans +340
Total: 232.5 (-105 O, -115 U)
BPI projection: Nuggets by 6.5, straight up 71%, 227.5 total points.

Damage report:
Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee); DaRon Holmes II, (OUT – Achilles); Christian Braun, (GTD – Back); Dario Saric, (GTD – Ankle)
Pelicans: Brandon Ingram, (OUT – Ankle); Daniel Theis, (GTD – not injury related); Jose Alvarado, (GTD – Hamstring); Karlo Matkovic, (GTD – Back); Zion Williamson, (OUT – Hamstring)

Nuggets projections:

  • Nikola Jokic, C: 58.4 FPTS (30.6 pts, 11.4 reb, 8.5 ast, 1.9 3PM)

  • Jamal Murray, PG: 42.2 FPTS (22.5 pts, 3.7 reb, 6.6 ast, 2.1 3PM)

  • Michael Porter Jr., SF: 30.3 FPTS (16.6 pts, 5.9 reb, 3.1 ast, 2.2 3PM)

  • Russell Westbrook, PG: 30.1 FPTS (14.2 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.2 ast)

  • Aaron Gordon, PF: 24.8 FPTS (13.3 pts, 5.5 reb, 3.1 ast)

  • Christian Braun, SG: 22.7 FPTS (12.8 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.8 ast)

  • Julian Strawther, SF: 16.2 FPTS (8.9 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.8 ast)

Pelicans projections:

  • Dejounte Murray, PG/SG: 37.1 FPTS (17.9 pts, 5.9 reb, 6.0 ast)

  • CJ McCollum, PG/SG: 32.7 FPTS (19.2 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.9 ast, 2.6 3PM)

  • Trey Murphy III, SG/SF: 29.3 FPTS (16.7 pts, 4.4 reb, 2.9 ast, 3.0 3PM)

  • Herbert Jones, SF/PF: 23.8 FPTS (11.5 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.9 ast)

  • Brandon Boston Jr., SG/SF: 19.2 FPTS (9.3 pts, 2.3 reb, 2.6 ast)

  • Yves Missi, C: 18.4 FPTS (8.6 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.3 ast)

  • Antonio Reeves, SG: 14.6 FPTS (7.8 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.5 ast)