Race to no. 1: Giants, Raiders have commanding lead for top pick in NFL Draft

As we head through Week 16, the race for the No. 1 overall pick continues. 1 with thinning out. Only six teams have three wins or fewer this season, and only four have a realistic chance to secure the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

An upset overtime win by the Carolina Panthers nearly puts them out of contention for the first pick. And while the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars remain three-win teams, the fact that they’ll be playing each other in Week 17 combined with the added help needed gives both a less than one percent chance of securing the top pick.

The odds continue to stack up around the two two-loss teams: the New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders. Athletics‘s model now gives these two teams a combined 88 percent chance of securing the pick.

New York Giants (2-13)

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New York’s odds continue to rise and have a better than 50 percent chance to secure the No. 1 pick for the first time this season. The way the Giants are currently playing, it’s no surprise that the team remains in first place in our projections. This Sunday’s game saw Drew Lock throw two pick sixes to the Falcons defense and Atlanta had its highest scoring game since October. The Giants’ consistently poor quarterback play teaches the possibility that New York could potentially win the next two weeks. The Giants are averaging just 11.8 points per game. game and 257.4 yards per game since the release of Daniel Jones in Week 10, both the lowest marks in the league in that span.

Remaining schedule: Indianapolis Colts, at Philadelphia Eagles

Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

The Raiders saw their odds increase from 31 percent last week to 35 percent this week due to the thinning of their competition and the increased likelihood of a two-win team holding onto the top spot. That said, the Raiders could be a team to watch later in the day. Las Vegas went into halftime leading the Jaguars 13-7 in their afternoon game.

Remaining schedule: at New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers

New England Patriots (3-11)

The Patriots’ odds continue to drop – down from 10 percent last week. New England needs help if it hopes to secure a top pick, and the window to get it continues to close. Help might not be enough if the Pats hold on to their 14-7 halftime lead over the Buffalo Bills. Another win on their resume would all but remove them from racing.

Remaining schedule: Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills

Cleveland Browns (3-12)

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Cleveland remains the only other team with odds above one percent. The Browns also remain one of the more volatile teams in this conversation. Myles Garrett became the youngest player ever to hit 100 career rushing yards this Sunday, Jerry Jeudy is a 1,000-yard receiver and David Njoku returned from injury. Even if they got the help they needed to level the playing field, there’s a decent chance Cleveland finds a way to win a game over the next two weeks to take themselves out of contention.

Remaining schedule: Miami Dolphins, at Baltimore Ravens

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(Photo: Sarah Stier/Getty Images)