Sam Darnold’s career season means the Minnesota Vikings face a tough decision | Minnesota Vikings

Before this season, Sam Darnold’s strongest contribution to the NFL canon was “to see ghosts”.

Darnold was one of several quarterbacks selected early in the first round to wash out with the New York Jets. After leaving Florham Park, he bounced between backup and bridge starter roles in Carolina and San Francisco before ending up in Minnesota. Now he leads one of the hottest teams in the NFL. As injuries and attrition continue to hamstring the Lions, the Vikings are making a late surge for the No. 1 in the NFC – and potential home field advantage through the playoffs.

It’s easy to look at Minnesota’s success and point in any direction other than Darnold. You can rattle off a list of Brian Flores’ wackadoo defense, Justin Jefferson, a solid offensive line and Kevin O’Connell’s offensive system before you hit on the quarterback that makes it all sing. But the reality is that Darnold has played like a top-10 quarterback this season. Despite his breakout year, however, it is unclear where he will play next season.

Darnold was brought to Minnesota to be a bridge to the next generation. The Vikings signed the veteran on a one-year, $10 million deal before selecting JJ McCarthy No. 10 in the latest draft. But McCarthy’s preseason injury gave Darnold a chance to make the team his own, and through 15 weeks he’s produced at a historic pace. Darnold is just that third quarterback in NFL history to reach 3,500 passing yards, 29 TD passes and a 100-plus passer rating in his first 14 games with a team.

Dig beneath the bloopers, and the promise of what Darnold could stay was there in New York, Carolina and San Francisco: A strong-armed quarterback who could spray the ball all over the field. But could anyone have imagined thisa franchise-caliber quarterback who lifts everyone around him?

Given his environment, it’s easy to overlook Darnold’s individual development. He works with one of the sport’s best offensive minds, a star-studded receiving corps, a blue-collar running game and a reliable tight end. Early in the season, Darnold was aided by the Vikings’ scheme and a set of the best bookend tackles in the league. In recent weeks, however, Darnold has come under fire, with the Vikings routinely conceding pressures of up to 40%. But outside of a couple of mistakes Monday night against the Bears, Darnold’s play has increased as his offensive line has slipped.

The Darnold of 2024 is not the same player he was with the Jets. He has evolved. Darnold’s accuracy has improved. He plays on the go. He hits close window throws at a league-leading clip. Where he was once the most panic-stricken quarterback in the league, he has a newfound sense of calm with the Vikings. In New York, Darnold folded against pressure and turtled when blown. These days, Darnold is one of the league’s best quarterbacks when the pocket gives way. He is fifth in the league in “plus accuracy” this season when under pressure, a measure of how often he throws his target open. That’s behind only CJ Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, according to Pro Football Focus.

When he saw ghosts, defenses attacked Darnold by tagging an extra player into the pass rush and blurring their coverage in the back end. Pairing extra heat with a lopsided defensive rotation muddled the quarterback’s decision-making. During his three ill-fated seasons with the Jets, Darnold threw 39 interceptions, including 23 against blitzes. He struggled to see the field and made frantic throws into congested areas.

The same what-is-he-thinks decisions have characterized this season as well. He’s up to 11 interceptions and 18 turnovers in 14 starts. But much of the nastiness has been removed from his game. He has navigated pressure as well as any quarterback in the league, getting rid of the ball in rhythm and showing a knack for creating plays on the fly. And against the blitz, Darnold has been money this year. When defenses send five or more pass rushers this season, Darnold has completed 73% of his passes, averaging 12.2 yards per carry. attempt and threw 12 touchdowns to zero interceptions. This season, his turnovers have largely come on erratic decisions outside the pocket or relying on his receivers to come down with 50-50 balls.

The idea that Darnold has to be the one to gag a game away is also a thing of the past. When the games are close, he is improving. If you check off the attributes of a franchise starter, he rips through the list.

What we’ve seen this season is not a quarterback finally delivering on his potential, but a player who has redefined his game.

His growth makes Darnold the most intriguing free agent this offseason. Is the rest of the league buying into his transformation from a ho-hum, error-strewn backup to a legitimate starter? Is he Ryan Fitzpatrick or Geno Smith? We’ll find out soon enough.

The success of Darnold combined with McCarthy’s injury has left the Vikings with a fascinating dilemma: Do they re-sign Darnold to a bumper contract or begin the McCarthy transition and let Darnold go?

When Darnold hits the open market, the benchmark for his next contract will likely be Baker Mayfield’s deal with the Bucs. Like Darnold, Mayfield was a former first-round pick who flamed out at his original spot before reviving his career elsewhere. In Tampa, Mayfield showed his credentials as a starter on a one-year, prove-it deal and was rewarded with a three-year, $100 million contract. from the Bucs. But Mayfield didn’t join an organization that had already selected their heir apparent.

If Mayfield’s contract is Darnold’s starting point in negotiations, can the Vikings afford to commit that much money to him with McCarthy already on the books? If not, how long will Darnold’s list of other suitors be?

That’s where things get murky. A sneaky story for this upcoming offseason is that plenty of quarterback-needy teams have little wiggle room to acquire an established veteran or even to take a chance on a reclamation project. Most teams in the league have either a long-term starter locked in or a young quarterback they believe in. Even a team like Carolina that looked like a possible quarterback destination midway through the season has seen enough from Bryce Young this season to roll into next year with the former no. 1 overall pick as the team’s guaranteed starter.

Three teams with a pressing quarterback need (Saints, Browns and Jets) either have veterans in place or are stuck in salary cap hell. While the Jets may clear the cap to create enough cap space to make an offer to Darnold, it’s unlikely he’ll return to the franchise that ran him out of town.

That leaves a small list of potential destinations: Raiders, Giants and Titans. Maybe the Colts will be interested if they pounce on Anthony Richardson (again). Matthew Stafford can retire at the end of the season, clearing up a clean landing spot for Darnold with the Rams. But if Stafford returns and the Colts choose to trust the process, Darnold will be down to three plausible suitors outside of Minnesota.

These three franchises will also look to the draft to find their quarterback of the future. Like the Vikings last season, they will likely try to pair this draftee with a veteran on a cheap deal to guide the rookie through their first season. Will Darnold be interested in putting himself in the same situation two seasons in a row? If he chooses to leave Minnesota, it will almost certainly be for a place where he is the guaranteed starter. If not, why leave Minnesota at all? In that scenario, it would make more sense for Darnold to return, even if it means taking a discount. McCarthy will still essentially be a rookie next year, returning from a knee injury. Darnold could retain his starting role until the Vikings feel McCarthy is the better option.

That presents another possibility: what if Darnold is just as good going forward as long as he plays in O’Connell’s system? Would the Vikings be open to trading McCarthy a year later, without seeing him play for a second, if Darnold continues to produce at a top-10 level? Or would they try to emulate the Packers model and see McCarthy as the Jordan Love to Darnold’s (don’t cry) Aaron Rodgers?

The answers to these questions will begin to come in the offseason. But Darnold has proven he’s an entry-level quarterback who can thrive in the right ecosystem. He has shown new threads to his game, which should encourage a franchise other than his game will translate elsewhere.

Whether he moves or not may depend on how the Vikings close the season. If Darnold rules out a playoff game, the Vikings may decide it’s time for McCarthy. But there’s a real, real chance Darnold and the Vikings hold Lombardi in February. Whether they win a championship or fall short, what follows will be one of the most fascinating quarterback dilemmas in recent league history.