Zay Flowers’ prop bet against the Steelers

Big, wide weekend here in NFL Week 16. We have two Saturday games this week. I mean – seriously. How amazing is this? The Baltimore Ravens against Pittsburgh Steelers. Harbaugh vs. Tomlin. Lamar Jackson vs. TJ Watt. Zay Flowers vs. George Pickens. How can this not be an absolutely perfect football game in December?

I already covered my favorite Lamar Jackson Prop and my favorite Mark Andrews prop to this game and I think there is a sneaky good value in one of Zay Flowers’ markets. Let’s have a Saturday.

Zay Flowers o61.5 receiving yards (-110)

The reason I like this line has to do with the whole flower market. His longest reception streak is set at 24.5 yards and his receptions are at 5.5. Which is to say, if Flowers even came close to his longest reception, he would be about 33% of the way to his total receiving line against the Steelers on just one catch.

Of the top-twenty pass catchers who lead the NFL in receiving yardage, Zay Flowers has far and away the best separation score at NFL Next Generation Stats (4.1). Second closest is Trey McBride at 3.7. No other receiver comes close to Flowers’ ability to create separation at the catch point in this Todd Monken offense.

This can be an RPO heavy game. Lamar Jackson might be looking for receivers who can get open quickly (read: Flowers) on a run/pass option play in the red zone or backed up in their own territory. Flowers’ Anytime TD market (+125) just doesn’t represent enough value for me.

Somehow, Flowers has only caught about 60% of his targets. A lot of them aren’t his fault (he only has a 68.1% projected catch rate). So the relationship between him and Lamar Jackson has been, season-long, something of a work in progress. Doesn’t matter. This passing game is firing on all cylinders.

Bottom line

With news of Rashod Bateman’s injury and the disastrous personnel situation that is Diontae Johnson as a Baltimore Raven, the Ravens will rely on Flowers and Mark Andrews (and potentially Isaiah Likely) through the air. Flowers’ specialty is at or around the line of scrimmage or in simple zone reads.

Flowers is ninth in the league in yards after the catch with 408. And that’s actually 95 yards less than his expected yards after the catch. There’s a streak of positive regression we can expect from Flowers throughout the rest of the regular season, and that should help push him over that 61.5-yard threshold against the Steelers.

Saturday night lights, baby!

Best offer: Zay Flowers o61.5 receiving yards (-110)

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