Warriors vs Timberwolves Prediction, picks and odds for tonight’s NBA game

The Golden State Warriors have lost three straight and nine of their last 11, and travel Saturday night to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves — winners of six of their last eight.

But one of those two losses was to the Warriors, and now with these teams playing for the third time in the last two weeks, Golden State should be familiar with playing within the +3 spread.

Continue reading my Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, December 21.

Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction

My best bet
Warriors +3 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis
Things have been bleak for the Golden State Warriors ever since their surprising 12-3 start, now losing nine of their last 11 and falling to 14-12.

During that stretch, they have been the fourth-worst team by net rating, which includes the fourth-worst offensive rating and eighth-worst defensive rating during that time.

And while the NBA is a game of stretches, both within a given game but also across a given time frame of the long season, there is sometimes a nuance that allows for opportunity.

Take, for example, the Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves, who in a strange scheduling quirk will play their third game against each other in just over two weeks.

That level of frequency and familiarity creates a strange void where players and coaches play an almost faux playoff series, trading blows as such despite The Warriors have been one of the league’s worst in that time.

In the first matchup, Golden State fell 107-90, as many would have expected given their form at the time. But strangely, they responded with a 114-106 victory two nights later.

And the weirder thing about the second game is that Minnesota shot better from three (45% vs. 33%), shot more free throws (20 vs. 14), and turned the ball over less (17 vs. 14) in the second game, yet had a very different (losing) result.

If +3 on the Warriors seems suspiciously short for tonight, that’s because tonight is every little coin flip. And in a coin flip, you always take the points.

Warriors vs Timberwolves parlay in same game

Warriors +3

Anthony Edwards under 25.5 points

Rudy Gobert over 11.5 rebounds

Anthony Edwards had 30 and 27 points in the first two contests, but it was unusual for Steve Kerr’s usual game plan for the young superstar.

Edwards managed to surpass tonight’s total of 25.5 points just once in his previous four against Golden State, and while he surpassed that mark in the last two, it took him four and five three-pointers in each of those contests — something he had managed to score just once in his previous nine games against the Warriors despite similar volume.

In the paint, we should see Rudy Gobert turn in a solid performance on the glass. He failed to hit the evening total of 11.5 in the previous two contests, but had hit that mark in 15 of his previous 17 games against Golden State.

Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Timberwolves odds

Warriors vs Timberwolves live odds

Warriors vs Timberwolves opening odds

• Spread: Golden State +3 (-110) | Minnesota -3 (-110)
• Moneyline: Golden State (+135) | Minnesota (-160)
• Over/Under: Over 215 (-110) | Under 215 (-110)

Odds provided by bet365

Warriors vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

• Golden State is still 15-11 against the spread this year despite their latest loss, which is good for the ninth-best coverage rate in the league.
• As road underdogs, the Warriors have gone 5-3 ATS.
• Minnesota has done the exact opposite, going 11-15 ATS, good for the eleventh-worst coverage rating in the league.
• Underscoring just how playoff-like this third game in two weeks is, tonight’s 215.5 total is tied for the Warriors’ lowest of the season and is the seventh-lowest for Minnesota.

Warriors vs Timberwolves trend

The Golden State Warriors have covered the spread in 27 of their last 42 road games (+10.40 units / 22% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Timberwolves.

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