NFL Week 16 Roundtable: Should Chiefs fans worry about Mahomes? Steelers or Ravens for the AFC North?

There are still three weeks to play in the NFL regular season, and the Week 16 schedule includes several key contests — including two Saturdays.

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans in the first game Saturday, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes set to play. Mahomes left last Sunday’s win over the Cleveland Browns in the fourth quarter with a high ankle sprain, but was listed as a full participant in practices ahead of this week’s meeting with Houston. Kansas City entered the week still leading the AFC with the NFL’s best record at 13-1.

The Baltimore Ravens then host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Saturday’s second game of a crucial AFC North matchup. Will the Steelers secure the division title and a season win in Baltimore with a win, or will the Ravens clinch a postseason trip with a win?

Our writers Zak Keefer, Jeff Howe and Mike Sando preview Saturday’s games and more in this week’s roundtable.

Patrick Mahomes suffered a right ankle sprain in Sunday’s win. How worried should Chiefs fans be that he’s trying to play Saturday against the Texans and again four days later against the Steelers on Christmas Day? Is there a logical argument for resting him on Saturday?

Keefer: He has done this before. Mahomes won a Super Bowl on a gimpy ankle. So he knows the process: the rehab, his pain tolerance, how it affects him in the pocket. If he can play, Mahomes should play. (As a former Colts beat writer, I can promise Chiefs fans they don’t want to see what the Carson Wentz experiment looks like.) The real concern for Chiefs fans right now, strange as it may sound, is this mediocre offense, specifically offensive line. The tackle spots have buried this unit this season and I’m not sure they’ll get it right in time for the playoffs. If not, any shot on a three-peat is lost. The last time Kansas City didn’t have the right seats was Super Bowl LV. They lost that game by 22.

Howe: Because Mahomes played through a high ankle sprain a few postseasons ago, I’m not overly concerned about his ability to do so again. The biggest concern is that the Chiefs haven’t given him much room for error in a season that has been full of white-knuckle thrill rides, with the only constant being Mahomes’ ability to deliver in the clutch. The schedule works against them here as well. If it was the Steelers on Saturday, it could be an easy decision to put Mahomes in position to keep him as far away from TJ Watt as possible. I’d play Mahomes, provided it’s not reckless. If they beat the Texans, I’d actually consider putting him in Pittsburgh before trying to lock up the No. 1 seed against the Broncos.

Sando: We’ll have to see how Mahomes performs against the Texans (and what further damage he sustains) before we set our concern levels for the next game. Mahomes was not on the injury report at the end of the week. He could have returned for the Cleveland game if needed. That makes him healthier than other players who will make it in any given week. In the big picture, I’m concerned about his ability to last through the playoffs based on the Chiefs’ ability to protect him and his reliance on scrambling to sustain drives.

Speaking of the Steelers, they have an important AFC North game against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday that will affect playoff seeding. Who do you like in this game and why?

Keefer: I’m going with the Ravens on this one. Honestly, I think Baltimore is the forgotten team of the AFC at this point. While most of the talk has centered around Mahomes’ ankle, Josh Allen’s MVP-worthy season and the Steelers’ resurgence with Russell Wilson, the Ravens have been characteristically consistent, compiling a 9-5 record that includes prime-time wins over the Bills . and chargers. Only Allen’s otherworldly performance eclipses Lamar Jackson’s stellar season — through 15 weeks, his passer rating (120.7) is the second-best of any quarterback over the past 25 seasons (Peyton Manning, 123.9 in 2004). The Ravens are also second in explosive field goal percentage over the last five weeks. It’s hard to beat them once – which the Steelers did back in November. Bet on Baltimore to win this one at home.

Howe: I’ll take the Ravens. While the Steelers have been more consistent and won the first matchup, I still think the Ravens have a higher ceiling and will play with more urgency to try to catch their division rivals. But as it usually goes with these teams, I would expect it to be close and I expect it to be a tough day for Jackson. The Steelers (5-2), Chiefs (4-1) and Raiders (2-1) are the only teams with winning records against the two-time MVP. Against all opponents, Jackson’s completion percentage (57.0) ranks second last against the Steelers, his yards per game (153.9) is eighth-worst, his passer rating (66.7) is last, and his 44.0 rushing yards per game game is his fourth lowest average. He also never rushed for a TD against them.

Sando: I’d take the Steelers if George Pickens was healthy and playing, but Pittsburgh might be too limited offensively without him, so I’m leaning toward the Ravens. The Steelers still have a decent shot based on their solid history of defending Jackson combined with Baltimore’s weaker than usual defense/kicking. This game could be decisive not only in the division, but also for Jackson’s MVP candidacy.

The Atlanta Falcons benched Kirk Cousins ​​after five straight games of underwhelming quarterback play, and rookie Michael Penix Jr. will make his starting debut Sunday against the New York Giants. Atlanta (7-7) is just one game behind the Bucs (8-6) in the NFC South race. Is gambling on a rookie quarterback the right move to get them to the postseason?

Keefer: Throwing a rookie into the fire with a playoff spot on the line is anything but risky. But I applaud Falcons coach Raheem Morris for making the switch because it’s a gamble this team needed to make. Coaches cannot coach with contracts weighing on their minds. Not even $180 million contracts. They have to put the team first, otherwise the locker room will smell up. And Cousins’ play over the last month — one touchdown, nine interceptions — has cost Atlanta dear. It’s that simple. Penix may be starting his first NFL game, but he entered the league as a very experienced college quarterback. Time to see if he can be a spark.

Howe: I love the move. The Falcons’ ceiling was severely limited with Cousins ​​playing this way, playoff run or not. It made sense to give him one more shot against the Raiders, who have a fresh but approachable defense and Cousins ​​couldn’t provide much in the way of results. Penix has turned it up in practice, so this move didn’t come out of nowhere. It comes down to this: Is it more valuable to try to leapfrog the Bucs for a playoff berth — something that is not in the Falcons’ control — to get into a wild-card game where the Falcons would be underdogs, or to get a extended look at their first-round pick before deciding whether to trade Cousins ​​in the offseason? I think the Falcons made the right decision and it helps that Penix will be playing against three defenses (Giants, Commanders, Panthers) that are vulnerable.

Sando: Leaving Cousins ​​in the lineup could have been a bigger gamble based on how he played. This Falcons team is not a championship contender with any quarterback in the lineup. I’d rather evaluate Penix and see if he can spark the offense than keep holding out hope for Cousins ​​when he’s not the future anyway.

The San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins meet on Sunday with their playoff hopes all but dead and their coaches, Kyle Shanahan and his former offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, under scrutiny. How much blame do Shanahan and McDaniel deserve, and which team is better suited to bounce back in 2025 and beyond?

Keefer: Shanahan deserves more of the blame for the 49ers’ regression, but I don’t think it’s all that surprising. This team is old, and the long playoff runs of the past few seasons — 11 postseason appearances since 2019, including two gut-wrenching Super Bowl losses — appear to have taken their toll. Injuries and absences have been a problem since the start of training camp. The Dolphins’ season boils down to Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion early. The Dolphins tried to climb back from 2-6 and almost did, but the hole they dug was too deep. I think Miami is a playoff team in 2025 if Tua stays healthy.

Howe: The Shanahan discussion doesn’t make much sense to me. If the 49ers made the drastic decision to part ways with him, he would have a few head coaching offers before the Niners extinguished his key cards. They’re injured and lacking depth, and that’s what happens to teams when they’re injured and lacking depth. McDaniel is a great coach with a great offensive scheme, but it’s perfectly fair to be critical of him for not fixing the same issues that have plagued them since his arrival. They don’t beat good teams. They don’t play well in the cold. And while Tagovailoa puts up big numbers more often, he’s too inconsistent when his early reads aren’t there and he has to improvise. Some of these problems are also organizational. McDaniel should get another chance in 2025. But if they don’t get any closer to winning a playoff game, it might be worth reconsidering.

Sando: The Dolphins’ backup quarterback scheme and inability to function without Tagovailoa was the most alarming aspect of these teams’ seasons. The 49ers are in a better position to bounce back in 2025, but that’s a somewhat tenuous bet simply because it’s unclear whether Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel Sr. and other key 49ers can sustain peak performance over an entire season.

Which rising NFC division leader is more dangerous in January: Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Los Angeles Rams? And which is more vulnerable on the road in potential trap games in Week 16 against the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets, respectively?

Keefer: Tampa Bay because that offense can score on anyone. Liam Cohen is flying a little under the radar as a head coaching candidate this cycle, but the Bucs’ offensive coordinator has been outstanding this season and should get some interviews. His unit is averaging 31 points per game. game during its current four-game winning streak, and since Week 11, Tampa’s offense ranks third in explosive play rate (14.3 percent). Todd Bowles also has his defense buzzing: The Bucs’ pressure rate is No. 1 in the league over the last five weeks. The Cowboys probably have a better chance of being upset because they are far from the dumpster fire that is the Jets.

Howe: I think the Bucs have a higher playoff ceiling because of the way Coen and Baker Mayfield have the offense, and they’ve already beaten the Lions and Eagles. However, the Bucs defense has been vulnerable, and Mayfield may be streaked with interceptions. The Rams are hot and their defense has been better than earlier in the season. Matthew Stafford is also playing at a very high level. I’d say the Rams have more of a trap game because they’ve been prone to nail-biting and Aaron Rodgers is like a box of chocolates.

Sando: Both teams have shown they can hold their own in a shootout when their top receiving target is available. The Buccaneers have done a better job of blowing out smaller teams more consistently, so I might trust them a little more. But if the Rams make the playoffs, the Sean McVay/Stafford combo could also threaten in the wild-card round.

(Top photo: Nick Cammett/Getty Images)