2024 NFL Week 16 Saturday Betting – Texans-Chiefs and Steelers-Ravens Picks, Odds, Lines

Week 16 of the NFL season brings us a pair of Saturday games to kick off the weekend.

CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans hit the field to face the Kansas City Chiefs in the first game of the day. Patrick Mahomes is dealing with an ankle injury but has been cleared to play. Both teams have already punched their tickets to the postseason, but the Chiefs can lock up home court advantage and a first-round bye with two more wins or a win and a Buffalo Bills loss.

The second game of the day features a rivalry matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers have already clinched a playoff spot, but they can secure the AFC North with a win on Saturday. The Ravens can secure at least a wild-card spot with a win.

There are plenty of options for potential bets on the games, so check out the lines, props, analysis, trends and our picks below.

Odds current as of time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET


game

0:39

Why Tyler Fulghum Expects Defense in Texans vs. Chiefs

Tyler Fulghum explains why he’s a big fan of the point total when the Texans head to Kansas City.

That spread shifted early in the week due to uncertainty surrounding Mahomes’ status. The Texans opened as slight favorites, but the line shifted toward the Chiefs as positive reports came in about the Kansas City quarterback, who has been cleared to start.

The Chiefs (13-1, 5-9 ATS) have already won the AFC West, but they were jumped this week by the Buffalo Bills as the conference favorite earlier this week before returning to first place after Thursday night’s win by the Los. Angeles Chargers over Denver Broncos. It was the first time the Chiefs (now +185) had not been favored to win the AFC since odds were first published in February.

The Texans (9-5, 6-8 ATS) have also won their division title. The AFC South champs are +1400 to win the AFC.

Houston won at home against the Miami Dolphins last week, while Kansas City won on the road against the Cleveland Browns in a game Mahomes had to leave early due to an ankle injury.

Saturday’s first match starts at 1:00 PM ET on NBC/Peacock.

Game lines

Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (open Texans -1)
Moneyline: Chiefs -190, Texans +160
Over/Under: 42.5 (open 41.5)

Notice in the first half: Chiefs -2.5 (-110), Texans +2.5 (-110)
Texans’ total points: 19.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Chiefs total points: 22.5 (Over -125/Under -105)

Matchup Predictor (per ESPN Analytics): Chiefs 61% chance to win


The props

Passed

CJ Stroud Total Passing Yards: 224.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Stroud Total Passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +150/Under -200)
Patrick Mahome’s Total Passing Yards: 249.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Mahome’s Total Passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +105/Under -132)

Hating

Joe Mixon Total Rushing Yards: 59.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Isiah Pacheco Total Rushing Yards: 49.5 (Over -145/Under +115)
Kareem Hunt Total Rushing Yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Receiver

Nico Collins Total Receiving Yards: 89.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Tank Dell’s total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Dalton Schultz Total Receiving Yards: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Travis Kelce Total Receiving Yards: 49.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
DeAndre Hopkins Total Receiving Yards: 39.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Xavier Worthy Total Receiving Yards: 39.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Noah Gray receives a total of: 19.5 (Over -140/Under +110)


Eric Moody’s chooses

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 249.5 passing yards (-140)

Mahomes will play Saturday, but he won’t be 100%. The Chiefs would be wise to lean on the ground, but when Mahomes throws, he faces a tough Texans secondary. Houston allows the eighth fewest passing yards per game. game and holding opponents to a 57.7% completion rate. It’s worth noting that Mahomes has gone below that line in three of his last five games.

Nico Collins OVER 89.5 receiving yards (-105)

The Chiefs defense has been tough this season, but their secondary can be inconsistent. They have already given up big games to other no. 1 receivers, including Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London and Jakobi Meyers.

Collins has missed some time, but when he’s on the field, he’s been phenomenal, averaging 8.6 targets and 94.3 yards per carry. match. CJ Stroud clearly trusts Collins and this duo will need to come up with big plays to keep up with Kansas City.


Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

  • Kansas City is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games (covered last week).

  • The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • The Texans are 12-2 ATS in the first half of games this season, the best mark in the NFL.

  • The Chiefs are 30-15-1 ATS under coach Andy Reid when the line is between +3 and -3 (25-11-1 ATS since 2015).

  • Kansas City is 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games, their longest ATS losing streak at home since 2022 (4).

  • Houston is 10-4 under this season, the highest mark in the league.

  • The Texans can surpass their season-opening win total (9.5) with a win this week.


game

0:38

Why history dictates going under in Steelers vs. Ravens

Tyler Fulghum says he’s sticking to the underdog in Steelers vs. Ravens, after their last eight games all fell short of the point total.

Russell Wilson and the AFC North-leading Steelers (10-4, 10-4 ATS) head to Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (9-5, 7-7 ATS).

Despite the current standings, the Ravens are +400 to win the AFC (+850 to win the Super Bowl) and the Steelers are +1300 (+2500 to win the Super Bowl). However, the Steelers remain the favorites to win the division (-170) over Baltimore (+130).

Pittsburgh enters Week 16 off a loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia. Baltimore fell to the Eagles two weeks ago, but is coming off a win against the New York Giants.

The Steelers won 18-16 in the first game between these division rivals just over a month ago.

Saturday’s second game is scheduled for 4:30 PM ET on FOX.

Game lines

Spread: Ravens -6.5 (open Ravens -6.5)
Moneyline: Ravens -280, Steelers +230
Over/Under: 44.5 (open 46.5)

Notice in the first half: Ravens -3.5 (-110), Steelers +3.5 (-110)
Steelers total points: 18.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Ravens total points: 25.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Matchup Predictor (per ESPN Analytics): Ravens 66.5% chance to win


The props

Passed

Russell Wilson Total Passing Yards: 199.5 (Over -145/Under +115)
Wilson’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +145/Under -190)
Lamar Jackson Total Passing Yards: 224.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Jackson Total Passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -110/Under +120)

Hating

Derrick Henry total rushing yards: 79.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Jackson total rushing yards: 49.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Najee Harris Total Rushing Yards: 44.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Jaylen Warren total rushing yards: 29.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Receiver

Zay Flowers’ Total Receiving Yards: 59.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Mark Andrews Total Receiving Yards: 34.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Pat Freiermuth Total Receiving Yards: 34.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Calvin Austin III Total Receiving Yards: 39.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Isaiah’s Probable Total Receiving Yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)


Moody’s chooses

Lamar Jackson OVER 224.5 passing yards (-120)

Jackson is having the best passing season of his career. Back in Week 11, he managed just 207 yards on the road against the Steelers. But this time, at home, he is ready for a comeback performance. Jackson has matched that mark in eight of his last 10 games while averaging nearly 30 pass attempts.

The Steelers’ defense is tough, no doubt, but that unit has shown cracks. Both Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts have crossed that line against the Steelers over the past three weeks. Expect Jackson to rise to the occasion and deliver a strong performance.

Derrick Henry UNDER 79.5 rushing yards (+105)

Henry was a force early this season, topping that line in six of his first seven games. But he has slowed down of late, going down in four of his last seven outings.

Back in Week 11, he managed just 65 yards against the Steelers. The Pittsburgh defense is no joke. It has given up the fourth-fewest rushing yards this season and just 3.8 yards per carry. carry on the road. It won’t be an easy match for Henry.


Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

  • Eight straight Steelers-Ravens meetings have gone below that total.

  • The Steelers have won four straight (4-0 ATS) and are 8-1 in the last nine meetings (7-2 ATS).

  • The Steelers have won four straight in Baltimore (4-0 ATS).

  • The Steelers’ streak of seven straight as the underdogs ended last week (tied for the second-longest streak since the 1970 merger). Pittsburgh is 5-1 straight up and ATS as underdogs this season.

  • The Steelers are 60-33-3 ATS as underdogs under Mike Tomlin (52-44 straight up). Tomlin has the second-best ATS record as an underdog and the second-best direct record in the Super Bowl era behind Matt LaFleur (min. 20 games as an underdog). The Steelers are 35-16-2 ATS as underdogs since 2018.

  • The Ravens are 11-3 over this season, the highest overrate in the NFL. However, the Ravens first quarter unders are 10-3-1, the highest unders rate in the NFL. Overs are 5-1 in Steelers’ last six road games.

  • The Steelers are 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.


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