Georgia CFP scouting guide: Will Bulldogs play Notre Dame or Indiana?

ATHENS, GA. – Three weeks ago, Georgia backed off for the SEC championship, survived an eight-overtime victory, then had to sit at home and watch a game – Texas at Texas A&M – where the winner would become its next opponent.

By winning that game, Georgia earned the right to throw another watch party for the next opponent. The stakes are higher this time, and the opponents are less familiar – sort of. (The last time Georgia played Notre Dame was the same season it last played Texas A&M, in 2019.)

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals could not only be a repeat of the 1981 Sugar Bowl, when Georgia beat Notre Dame to win the national championship, but also the teams’ third meeting in less than eight years.

Or it could be the first ever meeting between Georgia and Indiana.

Story lines are one thing. But what about the actual matchup? Based on the regular season, here’s a look at how each possible opponent matches up against the Bulldogs:

Running QB dilemma

This is no secret: Quarterbacks who can run are the kryptonite for this Georgia defense and have been for years.

Georgia Tech’s Haynes King had a season-high 114 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in the eight-overtime thriller. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe had 117 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on 16 attempts. They weren’t the only ones: Jaxson Dart had 50 rushing yards on seven attempts in Ole Miss’ win over Georgia, Kentucky’s Brock Vandagriff had 70 yards on 10 carries and Auburn’s Payton Thorne had 45 yards on 10 carries.

The flipside: Texas’ Quinn Ewers isn’t much of a runner, and neither is Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, and those were arguably Georgia’s top three defensive tackles with two against Ewers.

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard can run: He rushed for 769 yards this season, ranking 13th among quarterbacks nationally in sack-adjusted rushing yardage. In the three previous three years at Duke, Leonard amassed 1,224 rushing yards (counting sacks) in 21 starts, plus six other appearances.

Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke, on the other hand, isn’t much of a runner: 109 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 23 runs, not counting sacks.

So there is a clear preference here for Georgia.

The Stockton factor

This is the wildcard. Georgia’s offense was already unpredictable, and now it’s going from a pure pocket quarterback in Carson Beck to a dual-threat player in Gunner Stockton. During the regular season, Georgia was a much better passing team, but between Stockton and a healthier backfield, this offense could be more balanced.

Stockton’s mobility could be a plus on both pass rushes: Indiana ranks 22nd nationally with 34 sacks and Notre Dame is 37th.

So which defense is better equipped to stop Georgia? Both potential opponents are highly ranked: Notre Dame is ninth in the nation in defensive yards per carry. game and Indiana is 12. Notre Dame is third nationally in scoring defense and Indiana is sixth.

Those appear to be advantages against a Georgia offense that ranks just 44th in offensive yards per carry. game and number 29 in scoring. But the quality of the competition must also be taken into account:

• Georgia has faced the nation’s top-ranked defense (Texas) twice, along with two more in the top five (Ole Miss and Tennessee) and three more in the top 30 (Alabama, Auburn and Clemson).

• Notre Dame has faced the nation’s no. 3 offense (Louisville), but only one more in the top 30 (USC 25, though Navy is 31). Four of the offenses the Irish have faced are ranked 100 or below (Purdue, Virginia, Stanford and Florida State).

• Indiana has faced the nation’s no. 8 offense (Ohio State), but otherwise hasn’t faced anyone in the top 50 and four teams in the top 100 or below.

Georgia’s offense is battle-tested, but not impressive. The two potential defenses it will face are impressive but not as battle-tested.

More on UGA’s offense

Take all of the strength of schedule above into account, and here’s how Georgia matches up against the run and pass:

When Georgia Runs: Indiana is, on paper, much better equipped, and ranks as no. 4 nationally in opponent yards per game. rushing attempts, and Notre Dame is No. 84. That comes with a qualification: The Irish had to face Army and Navy. The Irish need back Howard Cross, one of the best defensive tackles in the country, who has missed the last four games with an ankle injury.

When Georgia passes: Both look to be a tough matchup. Notre Dame ranks No. 2 nationally in opponent yards per. attempts, and Indiana is tied for third. That seems to bode poorly for a Georgia team that struggles with downs and likely won’t have its strongest passer available.

But again, strength of schedule matters: Notre Dame has played six passing offenses ranked 75th or worse in yards per game. game and four that are 102nd or worse. Safety Xavier Watts is a legitimate star, but Notre Dame’s starting cornerbacks are a sophomore and freshman.

As for Indiana, it has built some numbers against weak passing teams: five that rank 97th or worse. It faced Ohio State, the ninth-ranked passing team, and Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard had an efficient day: 22-for-26 for 201 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

More on UGA’s defense

Indiana has the nation’s second-ranked offense, and that comes with some credibility: Ohio State is the best defense it faced (No. 2 nationally), plus the No. 23 Michigan and no. 27 Washington, four more in the top 60 and only two under 100.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, is ranked just 71st nationally in offensive yards per game. game. The top two defenses it has faced were No. 8 in Northern Illinois and no. 13 in Miami (Ohio), with only three more in the top 60.

Indiana is the biggest passing threat: Behind Rourke’s arm, the Hoosiers are second nationally in yards per carry. attempts, trailing only Ole Miss. The Fighting Irish rank just 71st in yards per carry. attempt.

Still, Leonard’s running ability is the thing that would worry Kirby Smart the most, especially since Leonard’s run in the red zone has been particularly potent (14 rushing touchdowns), which could puncture a Georgia defense that has been a bend-but-don’ t-break device. Opponents have a 47 percent touchdown percentage in the red zone, with the SEC Championship the best showing: Texas was held to four field goals while missing two more.

Notre Dame ranks third nationally in rushing per. attempt. Indiana is tied for 57th. And if anyone needs reminding, Georgia’s defensive strategy is predicated on stopping the run.

Common resistance factor

Georgia and Indiana do not have one. Georgia and Notre Dame have one: Georgia Tech and the Fighting Irish fared better, scoring a 31-13 victory in October at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. That’s more impressive than Georgia’s need to rally from 14 points down with five minutes left in regulation and then win in a coin-flip overtime shootout.

The big caveat: King, a dual-threat quarterback, was injured when Notre Dame played at Atlanta.

The bottom line

Opinions and impressions may change after watching the game on Friday night. But on paper, this seems like an easy call for Georgia fans: Notre Dame is the tougher matchup. Leonard’s running ability alone might be enough, but the Irish are closer to Georgia than the Hoosiers in talent: Notre Dame is ninth in the 247Sports Team Composite and Indiana is 57th.

Georgia is number two. Then again, the Bulldogs nearly lost at home to Georgia Tech (46th) and only beat Kentucky (24th) by 1 and were routed by Ole Miss (20th). Maybe this unpredictable Georgia team will stop being that way in the playoffs.

Or maybe not.

(Top photo by Kirby Smart: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)