College Football Playoff: Ranking the potential upsets in the first round

Days before the start of the College Football Playoff, the bracket is almost as notable for who isn’t in — perennial power Alabama, reigning national champion Michigan — as who is. More teams and more games mean more opportunities for upsets. Since there are “only” 12 teams in this bracket, there isn’t really room for Cinderella at this particular big dance … but that doesn’t mean there won’t be mayhem.

Sure, the lines on all four of the first-round games favor the higher-seeded home teams by at least one touchdown. But as Vanderbilt, Northern Illinois, Georgia Tech and many others demonstrated this season, the streak is just a number. There could easily be an upset in the first round in the first four games of the year; who could it be? We size up the upset candidates, from most to least likely.

Line: Penn State -8.5

The potential: Yes, SMU salvaged its season and its playoff spot with a frantic fourth-quarter charge in the ACC championship game. But those 15 minutes, not the previously anemic 45, were emblematic of SMU’s entire season: all gas, no brakes, no margin of error and no fouls. Don’t let the Mustangs’ last-second entry into the CFP field fool you; this is a viciously opportunistic team with the ability to put points on the scoreboard in droves. Their scoring average of 38.5 points per game ranks sixth in the FBS, and as Clemson can attest, you never really have them down until you kick them out of the game.

Plus, there’s the intangible factor: Penn State is a team of perennial underachievers under James Franklin, so how will the Nittany Lions fare under the kind of make-it-or-shut-up pressure that CFP will bring? Will the State College crowd suffer from no-again nerves if Penn State falls behind early? The potential drama lurking over the home line is too great to ignore in this game, or any possible game going forward.

Line: Notre Dame -7.5

The potential: In one sense, Indiana has already won The Battle for the Hoosier State, simply by forcing Notre Dame to acknowledge its existence. On another note, Indiana has a massive challenge ahead of it to overcome any concerns about the weakness of its schedule. Yes, the Hoosiers were riding good vibes all season long, but only faced one opponent of note — Ohio State — and it didn’t go so well.

Look at the numbers anyway. Yes, according to ESPN’s metrics, Indiana’s strength of schedule ranks 67. But Notre Dame is only six spots higher. The Irish beat four top-25 teams … but none ranked higher than 15. This could come down to a defensive struggle; Indiana ranks second in yards per game. games allowed, while Notre Dame ranks eighth. Both teams are playing with house money here given their recent (and, in Indiana’s case, entire) history, but the team with more to lose can often play that much tighter, regardless of what the line says.

Line: Ohio State -7.5

The potential: Speaking of losing more … Ryan Day might just be coaching for his job in these playoffs. Luckily for him, the team he can’t beat isn’t even in the bracket this year. Also fortunately for him, Ohio State may still be the team to beat in the playoffs given the level of multimillion-dollar talent across the board for the Buckeyes. Combine that with temperatures expected to be in the 20s in Columbus and you have a tall order for Tennessee.

The Volunteers’ offense lives and dies by Dylan Sampson’s legs, and both their points-per-game and yards-per-game defensive stats rank in the top five in the FBS. Their problem: Ohio State ranks first in both of those categories. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava has the big-play potential to rally his team — witness how he picked Alabama apart in the second half of what turned out to be a pivotal game for both teams — but he’ll need to start producing sooner than in the third quarter for Tennessee to keep up with the Buckeyes. This is the closest matchup of the seeds, but this game could very easily get away from Tennessee in a hurry.

Line: Texas -12

The potential: Underperformance vs. unproven. Texas lost twice to the only notable team it played all season. Clemson backed into the ACC championship game, then took advantage of an uncharacteristically overwhelmed SMU and held on to win a playoff berth-or-bust game.

The Tigers have been a pale orange shadow of their old national championship-winning selves. Clemson has Cade Klubnik … and not much else. Unfortunately for Clemson, Texas has the nation’s best pass defense, which will prevent the Tigers’ key weapons. If Clemson gets down early, they will have a hard time climbing out of the hole. But working in Clemson’s favor is the fact that Klubnik has more big-game potential than Texas’ Quinn Ewers. (The two battled in a high school state championship game in 2020; Klubnik came out on top in that one.) If Clemson can rattle Ewers, and if Texas doesn’t turn to Arch Manning in crunch mode, the Tigers could pull off major upset in the first round. Yes, we say there is a chance.