How will Butler fare this year?

On December 19, 2024By Littum

Butler at Marquette, 9 p.m., Wednesday; TV: FS1

Butler begins Great East play Wednesday with a trip to Milwaukee to meet no. 9 Marquette.

Reigning national champion UConn remains one of the best teams in the nation, but the rest of the Big East doesn’t seem as intimidating as in years past. Butler will be tested right away with Marquette and No. 13 UConn as its first two opponents.

The Bulldogs were picked to finish eighth out of 11 teams in the preseason. Is that where Butler is headed after an up-and-down non-conference schedule? I’ll answer that soon, but first here’s a preview of the Big East.

Best team: Marquette

Heading into the first week of Big East play, Marquette has surpassed UConn as the team to beat in the league. The Golden Eagles are ranked in the Top 17 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. They are 9-2 with quality wins over Maryland (road), Purdue (home) and Georgia (neutral).

Senior Kam Jones has developed into one of the best players in the nation. The 6-5 guard from Memphis is averaging 20.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game. He is shooting 57.1% from the field, 41.2% from 3 and 75% from the free throw line. Forward David Joplin (14.2 ppg) and guards Chase Ross (11.5) and Stevie Mitchell (11.3) are also double-digit scorers.

The Golden Eagles are solid everywhere, but are not elite in any area. The only area that could be considered a weakness is their ability to get to the free throw line. Marquette’s free throw rate (free throw attempts/field goal attempts) is just 28.5%, 289th in the country. Butler is shooting about two field goals for every free throw (49.7%), good for seventh in the nation.

Top player: Eric Dixon, Villanova

Dixon didn’t play with that star-studded team of Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges and Donte DiVincenzo, but it sure feels like he did because he’s been a productive player at Villanova for so long. Heading into his fifth year in the program, Dixon has taken his game to another level.

The 6-8, 265-pound forward’s numbers are up across the board while experiencing little to no decline in efficiency. Dixon leads the nation in scoring with 25.8 points per game. game to go along with 5.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.1 steals. He’s shooting an absurd 52.3% from 3 while shooting 6.5 3s per game. game. He has scored 20-plus points in all but one game.

Leading scorer: Eric Dixon, Villanova

See everything I wrote above. I will add that Dixon moves well for his size, never seems out of control and can score from all three levels of the court. His 38-point game against Maryland is one of the most dominant performances you’ll see all season.

Top Defender, Tarris Reed Jr., UConn

Reed isn’t even technically a starter for UConn, but he’s an extremely impactful player, averaging just 20 minutes per game. match. The Michigan transfer leads the Big East with a 30.1 defensive rebounding percentage, which means he grabs 30.1% of defensive rebounds when he’s on the court. Reed’s 8.62% block percentage is second in the Big East behind his teammate, Samson Johnson (11.60%).

At 6-11, 260 pounds, Reed is long enough to effectively protect the rim, strong enough to bang with big bodies in the paint and athletic enough to corral rebounds and slam home dunks.

Top Freshman: Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

UConn’s Liam McNeeley deserved all the preseason love and can be seen higher in NBA circles, but the most productive freshman in the Big East thus far has been Georgetown’s Thomas Sorber.

Sorber was a four-star recruit coming out of Archbishop Ryan High School in Philadelphia. Sorber is 6-10, 255 pounds. He is averaging 15.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.7 blocks per game for the Hoyas. Sorber has agile footwork and a soft touch around the rim. He recorded a 20-point, 13-rebound double-double in his collegiate debut against Lehigh. He has recorded three double-doubles in 10 games and has scored in double figures in all but two games.

How is Butler doing?

The projections are not kind to Butler. KenPom projects Butler to go 8-12 in the Big East and finish with a 15-16 record. The Bulldogs are a strong 3-point and free throw shooting team, two qualities tournament teams usually possess. Their overall defense isn’t bad, but their 12.3 turnover percentage is one of the worst in the country.

Jahmyl Telfort is the team’s best player. Patrick McCaffery is the top scorer. Kolby King or Andre Screen is the team’s top defender. Butler has a team of solid players, but none of them can be considered one of the top players in the country. Marquette, UConn, Georgetown, Villanova, Xavier and Creighton have players capable of taking over at each end of the court.

Telfort has shown the ability to dominate smaller competition, but his numbers have taken a hit as the difficulty level of Butler’s opponents has increased. Pierre Brooks II is a strong scorer, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired.

As currently constructed, I don’t think Butler has what it takes to finish in the top third of the Big East. Things can change, upsets happen, but with Marquette and UConn on the way, Butler has to knock off a giant or hope that tough losses don’t destroy the team’s confidence moving forward.