‘Bama Basketball Breakdown: North Dakota will go all-out in Grant Nelson’s homecoming

Alabama traveling to Grand Forks, North Dakota was clearly a nice gesture by the staff to Grant Nelson — seven states and 1,400 miles away, it’s hard for friends and family to get to Tuscaloosa, much less keep track of the peripatetic tide.

That’s probably where the interest begins and ends. Nelson’s homecoming, in front of around 3000 people, will stir up a lot of emotion for the local favourite. But the game itself is a mismatch that should probably land Alabama in the Hague for war crimes: On the floor, it will be a slaughter.

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Tale of the Tape: North Dakota (No. 303, 4-8) vs. Alabama (No. 7, 8-2)

Spread (Total): Alabama -23.5 (O/U 163.5)

Opponent KenPom: 303 (224 attack, 345 defense, 160 pace)
Opponent Evan Miya: 309 (236 Attack, 339 Defense, 187 Pace)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 304 (240 Attack, 331 Defense, 187 Pace)
Opponent NET: N/R (Q4)
Opponent’s best win: REACH
Opponent’s Worst Loss: REACH

Alabama KenPom: 8. (6 off, 36. defense, 8. pace)
Evan Miya: 7th (3 off, 17th defense, 2nd pace)
Bart Torvik: 7 (3 off, 27. defense, 7. pace)
NET Ranking: 10 (3-2 Q1)
Best win: no. 4 (N) Houston
Worst loss: no. 28 at Purdue

It’s hard to write about the little brother of Grant Nelson’s old team, the Fightin’ Hawks of UND, in any engaging way.

It’s a bad team, and a particularly bad offensive team. If you want to say something nice about UND, it’s that they’ve occasionally hit well outside their weight class, scoring nice upset wins over Utah Valley, Loyola Marymount and Weber State — all between 180 and 210 in KenPom. If they can get you to play their patient basketball and keep things in the 70s, they’ve bought themselves a chance to beat them at home.

And that should tell you what the strength of this group is, grading on a curve: a defense that has occasionally exceeded their expected performance (sitting at 161st based on adjusted schedule). In their four wins, the Hawks have won the battle for the paint, and in three of them, UND had more free throws than their opponents.

The first thing you need to know about UND is that they are a very streaky team. It’s rare for many guys to have good nights at the same time; rather, the MO is one or two players who break down while the rest of the bench has an average night. This lack of consistent, multiple scoring opportunities has cost UND several close games already this year. It is also reflected in their recordings. This is a terrible team from the floor, shooting just 45% (329), and is an even worse team from the perimeter (28.5%). In fact, there isn’t a single player on the entire roster that you would call a three-point specialist.

As you would expect in the Northern Plains, they average a tall team – especially for a Summit bottom feeder, averaging close to 6’6″. But there is no dominantly large. The closest approximation to the usual “Giant White Midwest Guy in the Post” is 6’9″ Amar Kuljuhovic. He is the Hawks’ second-leading scorer (12) and their leading rebounder (7). He’s not a great rim defender, is a pretty poor shooter for a big (54%), and turns it over a lot – although he does play reasonably good defense on the interior and tight ends.

It’s a balanced scoring group, with four out of five starters all averaging 10+ per game. night, but the star of the show is Jr. PG Treysen Eaglestaff. The local kid is a huge point guard who stands at 6’6″ and leads the Hawks in both points (18) and assists. Dariyus Woodson mans the SF spot and is a very effective rebounder for a wingman. He has also shown some flashes the last few plays from beyond the arc.

Off the bench, 6’10” Brian Mathews is the best defender and street sweeper (he actually leads UND in rebounds per possession). He’s an inconsistent scorer, but when they get the chance to dish, the Hawks will feed him down low. Eli King will probably get more minutes in this one. He is the first man off the bench to spell the starting linebacker and is the most effective defender. He’s not the scorer that Eaglestaff or Panoam are, but he’s the mythical spark plug that does a lot of the dirty work.

UND also throws an unusual look at you: Kuljuhovic at the forward-center spot, accompanied by a swing, and then a trio of true guards — and sometimes even four guards and a swing look. You’d be tempted to call it a “small lineup” except for the fact that a dozen of their guards go 6’4″+. And of those starters, the “small” shooting guard, Mier Panoam, is still 6’2 “. That size is likely why 75% of the starting backcourt averages between four and six rebounds a night as part of UND’s team approach (we saw Creighton try the same).

Without the presence of a rebounder, UND must manufacture their second chances with a group effort to knock down the glass. It pays off as this is easily one of the best offensive rebounding teams ‘Bama has faced (36th). But again, without the big man, they tend to get lumped on the defensive glass.

So the Hawks would prefer to win with selectivity and keep their fortunes out of the hands of the big opponents. They want a good first look in attack and defensively they focus their efforts with on-ball defence. As you would expect with this kind of approach, NoDak, by necessity, plays a predominantly slower game than the Tide is used to seeing from more talented teams. But when it works, they can be quite competitive against most T3/T4 teams.

Still, let’s be under no illusions here either: this isn’t just an objectively bad team (4-8), it’s statistically bad and easily the worst team Alabama has played in several seasons (IIRC, Alabama had a similar in Coleman back in 2021). Is this likely to be laughable? You bet. The worst squad ‘Bama has faced to date, No. 177 Asheville, was outrebounded 110-54 by the Tide. And if Alabama wants to keep the pressure up here, or start hitting some perimeter shots, the Tide can likely name their score.

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Bottom line

This will be an exhibition for the Tide, a chance to snap themselves out of their funk, valuable playing time for Mallette and Youngblood, and above all, a reward for Grant Nelson. But it’s not just a homecoming for Nelson, it’s also meaningful for the Hawks. Half of their roster is from North Dakota. They will give every effort they have. It’s not a poorly coached team at all; it’s just a team that lacks impact talent.

At the end of the day, you can’t help but think that Nate Oats will work to clean up ‘Bama’s turnovers and shooting, and give all of those bench players tons of quality playing time down the road. Confidence is needed when SEC play starts in just two weeks.

That’s how you see

8:00 Central on CBS Sports Network, 12/18

Forecast

Nate Oats is not known for his compassionate nature. Not that he would ask guys like Derrion Reid or Houston Mallette or Aiden Sherrell to take their foot off the gas when they finally get to log significant minutes.

Alabama can and probably will name their score here. The Tide interior game and the pace of the game is just becoming too much for the Hawks to even come close to matching.

Alabama 106
North Dakota 58

Hoping for the best.
Roll Tide.