What the QB could do as a free agent in 2025

On December 17, 2024By Littum

The Minnesota Vikings made two quarterback moves in the 2024 NFL offseason to rebuild their cap room after the departure of Kirk Cousins.

The one that got the most fanfare was the team’s decision to draft the Michigan starter JJ McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

The one that has played the biggest role in Minnesota’s outstanding season was the signing of Sam Darnold.

The Vikings inked Darnold to a short-term deal during the offseason that many expected would make him the team’s bridge quarterback. When they drafted McCarthy, many wondered exactly how long Darnold would be the team’s starter — if he even started in 2024.

A knee injury to McCarthy before the season ensured that Darnold would become the team’s No. 1 quarterback. He has thrived in that role and appears to have finally unlocked the talent that made him the No. 3 pick in the 2018 NFL draft while operating in Kevin O’Connell’s system.

Darnold is slated to be a free agent again when the 2024 NFL season ends. What type of deal will he get on the open market? USA TODAY evaluates his future earnings as he looks at the NFL’s evolving middle class of quarterbacks.

Sam Darnold contract details

Darnold signed a one-year deal with the Vikings in free agency. Below are the terms of the deal per Spotrac.com.

Term: 1 year
Total value: 10 million dollars
Average Annual Value (AAV): 10 million dollars
Guaranteed money: $8.75 million

Darnold’s deal also includes four void years, which lowered his cap hit to $5 million in 2024. He will count $5 million against the Vikings’ salary cap in 2025, although he will not return to the team because of that accounting mechanism.

Darnold’s contract ranks 21st among quarterbacks in AAV and tied for 37th in overall value. He is likely due a significant raise based on his play in 2024.

Sam Darnold statistics

Darnold has been a top-10 NFL quarterback in 2024 by most metrics. Below is a look at his stats and where they rank compared to the rest of the NFL entering Week 15.

Completion rate: 68.4% (7th)
Passed by: 3,299 (6th)
Passed TDs: 28 (T-3.)
INTs: 10 (T-6th)
Yards/trials: 8.5 (4th)
Fits rating: 108.1 (3rd)
QBR: 59.0 (15th)
PFF grade: 86.4 (6th out of 40 qualified QBs)

Darnold also ranked sixth in MVP odds coming into Week 15, according to odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. It will only further justify that the former no. 3 overall picks deserve a lucrative contract extension.

The only question is how much salary he gets.

Sam Darnold contract projection

As good as Darnold has been in 2024, it’s hard to imagine him commanding a top-dollar trade. Although he has had a great season, it came deep into his NFL career and his fourth franchise.

As such, any team that signs Darnold to a contract will want to ensure that they are protected from any potential regression. That makes Darnold more likely to sign a short-term deal, a prospect he should be open to as it would give the 27-year-old another chance to cash in if he continues to develop in the prime of his career .

With that in mind, there are two contracts that Darnold could base his potential deal on. The first is his best comparison, Baker Mayfield.

Like Darnold, Mayfield was a top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft class that flopped with the team that drafted him and eventually languished with Carolina Panthers. It took Mayfield to his fourth franchise, the Tampa Bay Buccaneersto find his success, and he turned his one-year trial run into a three-year deal worth up to $100 million.

Below are the terms of Mayfield’s contract in Tampa Bay:

Baker Mayfield contract details

Term: 3 years
Total value: 100 million dollars
Average Annual Value (AAV): $33.33 million
Guaranteed money: 50 million dollars

It’s easy to imagine Darnold making such a deal, especially if the Vikings retain interest in him. A three-year pact like that would allow Minnesota to continue working with Darnold while McCarthy develops to eventually take over the starting job in a Aaron Rodgers/Jordan love-type situation.

The other deal that should interest Darnold and his agent is Geno Smiththree years deal with Seattle Seahawks in the high season of 2023. Smith was a journeyman (and formerly New York Jets quarterback) before breaking out with Seattle and establishing himself as a quality starter.

Below is a look at the details of Smith’s contract:

Geno Smith contract details

Term: 3 years
Total value: 75 million dollars
Average Annual Value (AAV): $25 million
Guaranteed money: $40 million

The biggest difference with Smith is that he didn’t have the same upside as Darnold. Smith was entering his age-32 season when the Seahawks switched to him as their starter and traded Russell Wilson. Darnold is entering his age-28 season, so the four-year gap should allow him to land somewhat closer to Mayfield’s deal — if not a bit more expensive, given the ever-increasing nature of the NFL’s quarterback market.

With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Darnold get a deal worth $110 million over three years. It would be a little more expensive than his estimated Spotrac market value of $35.7 million. Still, it’s probably an accurate reflection of how a potential bidding war, however small, could inflate his costs.

Below is a projection of what Darnold’s next contract could look like:

Sam Darnold contract projection

Term: 3 years
Total value: 110 million dollars
Average Annual Value (AAV): $36.7 million
Guaranteed money: 55 million dollars

Perhaps Darnold’s value will exceed this if he has many suitors, like the Vikings, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants and Las Vegas Raidersamong other things. However, he could also see his overall value take a hit if teams picking at the top of the 2025 NFL Draft decide to avoid free agent quarterbacks and go after players like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward.

Regardless, Darnold’s skill set should be in demand somehow this offseason. Whether he plays for the Vikings or trades for a fifth other NFL team, he’s ready to cash in after a career-best season.