UFC Tampa Predictions – MMA Fighting

What better way to shake off the winter months than with a visit to sunny Florida?

That’s how the UFC closes out its 2024 calendar year, with Miami’s own Colby Covington taking on Joaquin Buckley in Saturday’s UFC Tampa main event. This one came out of nowhere after Belal Muhammad had to pull out of UFC 310, setting off a chain of events that saw Buckley’s originally scheduled opponent Ian Machado Garry move to a pay-per-view spot opposite Shavkat Rakhmonov, and Covington slipped in. at short notice to replace Garry.

It was a shrewd move by “Chaos,” who against all odds could find himself in the conversation for a fourth (!) crack at the undisputed welterweight title if he impresses against Buckley. When we last saw Covington, he lost a sloppy decision to compete with Leon Edwards, who he has since blamed on a bad foot/altitude sickness/a dog that ate his homework, and then disappeared for 12 months. But the wily veteran has picked the right moment to re-emerge and not just because of a favorable political landscape.

This should be Buckley’s time to shine, with the former middleweight on a five-fight winning streak, dropping to 170 pounds. He’s done a lot to rehabilitate his image in 2024 after some bizarre statements and bluffs the year before, and he can make it a 4-0 campaign with an impressive performance against Covington. But you know Covington is just waiting to trip up Buckley at the finish line.

In other notable main card action, featherweight veterans Cub Swanson and Billy Quarantillo meet in the co-main event, and Manel Kape takes on Bruno “Blindado” Silva in a bout that could determine the next challenger for flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja.

What: UFC Tampa

Where: Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla.

When: Saturday 14 December. The preliminary heptathlon card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 10 PM ET also on ESPN2 and ESPN+.

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(Numbers in brackets indicate that you are in MMA Fighting Global Rankings)

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley (10)

I hate to give too much credence to excuses, especially when they come from someone like Colby Covington, someone who is willing to say literally anything to stay relevant, but I know his foot was messed up in the Leon Edwards- the fight. Don’t get me wrong, I still think Edwards will get him in five rounds, but Covington looked extra bad that night as opposed to just normal bad.

Why am I bringing this up? Because I still think he has enough in the tank to win fights against certain ranked opponents, and Joaquin Buckley could be one of them. For all the work Buckley has done to establish himself as a legitimate title contender, he has yet to face a stylistic matchup like Covington. Buckley has solid offensive wrestling, it’s on the defensive side that I have questions. Can he keep Covington off him for five rounds?

Buckley isn’t the tactician that Edwards is, and as good as he’s looked at 170 pounds, he’s not as difficult a puzzle to solve either. You can beat Buckley with pressure, which happens to be Covington’s specialty. And if Covington gets him to the ground, Buckley’s flashy moves will look a lot less explosive in the championship rounds.

As someone who has been touting Buckley as a potential title contender even during his tougher stretches at middleweight, it may seem odd that I’m picking him to come up short here, but I think this is a case of savvy fight selection of Covington. Run this back again and maybe Buckley hammers Covington, but I have a weird feeling the circumstances are just right for Covington to pull off an upset.

Pick: Covington

Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo

Maybe I lean too much towards the older guys, but I also like Cub Swanson on Saturday nights.

As with Covington’s case, this looks like a good matchup on paper for the WEC original. Billy Quarantillo is a stiff test for anyone at 145 pounds, and he’ll have a lot of support from his fellow Floridians, but this is going to come down to striking, and that’s where Swanson still has an advantage over the masses of featherweights. There’s no shame in being boxed by Swanson, who can hold his own with the best of them, even after recently celebrating his 41st birthday.

If Quarantillo takes this to the ground, more power to him, but he’ll likely want to put on an entertaining show for the Tampa crowd, and that means going blow-by-blow with the “Killer Cub.” Swanson is no stranger to Fight of the Night awards, and it’s safe to say he and Quarantillo will battle for another on Saturday, with Swanson also taking home his winner’s check.

Pick: Swanson

Manel Cape (11) vs. Bruno Silva

I don’t get the whole Manel Cape thing.

What is the appeal here? He talks a big game, of course. He has some nice knockouts on his resume, but he’s also had his fair share of stinkers. He consistently falls short against high-level competition (Kai Asakura excluded, and that was five years ago!). At best, he’s fly swatter Michael Page, and that might be an insult to “Venom.”

OK, that was tough, especially considering that Kape’s smooth hitting style not only makes him the favorite against Bruno Silva, it also makes him an intriguing matchup for Pantoja (although on paper everyone seems to have a chance against Pantoja, a of the reasons why he is such a persuasive champion). Is this the night Cape finally delivers?

Nah. People have been sleeping on Silva for a while, even though he has four straight finishes and four straight Performance of the Night bonuses. I hear all the time that people are looking for flyweights with consistent stopping power and there is one that has been right in front of us all along. I’m as confused by the disrespect for Silva as I am by the hype about Kape.

I’m doubling down here and could easily eat my words, but my gut tells me that Silva is the right contender at flyweight and he’ll submit Kape in the second or third round.

Pick: Silva

Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby

Now this is proper matchmaking for Vitor Petrino. I understand why the Anthony Smith game happened, and honestly, Petrino just peed the bed in what should have been a rank-up moment for him, but if we’re still measuring where he is as a potential contender at 205 pounds and looking to book him in fun fights, Dustin Jacoby is the right choice.

It pains me to say that Jacoby’s spoiler days may be behind him. Jacoby’s MMA and kickboxing experience has been a legitimate asset for him in his second run with the UFC, to the point that even in fights he loses, you get the sense that his opponent has really been tested. His kickboxing is some of the best in all of MMA and you can imagine a scenario where Petrino just can’t figure him out and ends up on the wrong end of a decision.

Petrino has such an athletic edge — and yes, I said the same thing about the Smith matchup — he can’t let Jacoby set the pace or get the better of any close exchanges. I believe in Petrino as a player in this division, so if he falls short here, I will have serious questions about his future.

Pick: Petrino

Adrian Yanez vs. Daniel Marcos

What a fascinating striking duel we have here.

If you want an example that there are no easy fights at bantamweight, we have a pair of fighters in Adrian Yanez and Daniel Marcos who are unranked but can give almost anyone in the top 15 a run for their money. Yanez has shown time and time again that he is an elite boxer, while Marcos has impressed with a flawless start to his 17-fight career. It’s a carnage going on in this division, man.

I like Yanez, if only because I expect him to be able to turn up the volume if the fight calls for it, although Marcos’ distance control and timing are exceptional. At the same time, if Marcos waits too long for the right moment, it will allow Yanez to establish a rhythm, and when locked in, Yanez is incredibly efficient (and fun to watch!).

As appealing as it is to imagine Marcos maintaining his undefeated record and becoming a dark horse contender in 2025, I don’t see him bumping past Yanez in the contender ranks just yet. Yanez wins a hard fought decision that Marcos will learn a ton from as he moves on with a promising future.

Pick: Yanez

Navajo Stirling vs. Tuco Tokkos

We have two unknown properties here with Navajo Stirling just 5-0 and fresh off the Contender Series and Tuco Tokkos having a little more experience, albeit against questionable competition. Let’s be real, this is the kind of low-level light-heavyweight matchup the UFC books for the sole purpose of opening the main card with a bang.

It should be Stirling who gets the big finish here. As green as he is, he moves well and passes the eye test as far as you’d expect from a fighter looking to establish himself as a knockout artist. He uses his range well, isn’t afraid to mix up the martial arts, and the one-shot KO potential is there. You’d like to see more activity at times, but his methodical style has served him well so far.

It will also be effective against Tokkos, who likes to stand up and force his offense. It becomes difficult with the longer Stirling sneaks away after him and Tokkos will eventually make a wrong move and end up getting hit with a power punch.

Pick: Stirling

Preliminary

Michael Johnson def. Ottman Azaitar

Drakkar Klose def. Joel Alvarez

Sean Woodson def. Fernando Padilla

Miles John def. Felipe Lima

Miranda Maverick def. Jamey-Lyn Horth

Davey Grant def. Ramon Taveras

Josefine Knutsson def. Piera Rodriguez