2024 FCS Playoffs: #5 UC Davis at #4 South Dakota Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction

#5 seed UC Davis (11-2) travels to #4 seed South Dakota (10-2) in the FCS quarterfinals.

South Dakota is a 6.5 point favorite BetMGM with the total number of points set at 55.5. Kickoff is at 2 p.m. CT on Saturday, December 14, and will air on ESPN+.

That’s the tightest spread of the four quarterfinal games. Here are some names and numbers you need to know and also a score prediction.

When UC Davis has the ball…

UC Davis has as good a QB-RB duo as any in the FCS.

Quarterback Miles Hastings was the no. 7 in the Walter Payton Award voting, and running back Lan Larison was No. 5. Like a few other guys in the FCS, they both had strong arguments to be in the top 3 invited to the awards show.

Hastings is completing 69.9% of his passes (328/469) for 4,148 yards, 35 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He now leads the FCS in passing yards, and his 165.4 pass efficiency ranks No. 6 in the subdivision.

Larison leads the FCS with his 2,323 all-purpose yards and 178.7 all-purpose yards per carry. game. He averages 5.1 yards per carry. carry, totaling 1,425 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. Larison also leads UC Davis with 61 catches for 842 yards and six touchdowns.

With Larison getting plenty of touches, Hastings still spreads the ball around well. Samuel Gbatu Jr. has 41 catches for 739 yards and seven touchdowns. CJ Hutton has 48 catches for 637 yards and two scores. Chaz Davis (34 catches, 560 yards, 7 TDs), Trent Tompkins (54 catches, 497 yards, 4 TDs) and Winston Williams (33 catches, 261 yards, 6 TDs) also enter the game.

With a variety of weapons, UC Davis ranks No. 8 in FCS scoring offenses (35.8 PPG).

Eli Simonson (6’6″ 285 lbs) and Ernesto Nava (6’4″ 305 lbs) are two All-Big Sky selections on the o-line, a unit that has been pretty good but not dominant. The Aggies are ranked No. 58 in FCS run-blocking on PFF, no. 26 in pass-blocking, and their 1.92 sacks allowed per game is no. 64.

They will be going up against one of the best defenses in the FCS.

USD is no. 3 in FCS scoring defense (16.3 PPG), no. 10 in rushing defense (109.6 YPG), no. 33 in pass defense (192.8 YPG), no. 9 in PFF overall defence, no. 3 in PFF run defense, no. 1 in PFF tackling and no. 31 in PFF coverage.

As can be seen from these numbers, riding the USD is not easy. But teams have had success throwing the ball.

The D-line is a ferocious unit led by Mi’Quise Grace (58 tackles, 18 TFLs, 9.5 sacks, 9 QB hurries) and Nick Gaes (43 tackles, 10 TFLs, 8 sacks), two All- MVFC First Team players on the edge. Blake Holden is a second-team selection on the interior, totaling 41 tackles, six TFLs, four sacks and five QB hurries.

Gary Bryant III has stepped up at linebacker to lead the team with 86 tackles as a Second Team All-MVFC performer. LB Nate Ewell is tied for second with 63 stops.

The secondary is experienced and talented, despite the passing numbers above. Part of those numbers are because teams were forced to pass while their running game couldn’t find success. Dennis Shorter is a First Team All-Conference safety, with 63 total tackles, two interceptions and 10 pass breakups. Safety Josiah Ganues earned honorable mention with 45 tackles and two pass breakups.

At cornerback, Mike Reid was named to the second team with 35 tackles, two interceptions and seven pass breakups. A perennial starter at CB, Shahid Barros has 33 tackles, one interception and three pass breakups this season.

RELATED: Odds to win the FCS National Championship

When the USD has the ball…

The USD’s offensive has been super effective. And the film’s characters back it up. The Coyotes are No. 1 on PFF in FCS overall offense, no. 2 in delivery, no. 3 in reception, no. 1 in rushing and no. 1 in run-blocking.

Statistically speaking, Yote’s no. 4 in FCS scoring offenses (37.4 PPG), no. 5 in rushing offense (230.3 YPG) and no. 48 in passing offenses (217.0 YPG).

Aidan Bouman provides a steady presence at quarterback. He has thrown for 2,470 yards, 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, completing 180/261 of his passes (68.9%). Bouman is the No. 1 FCS quarterback. 3 on PFF, behind Montana State’s Tommy Mellott and NDSU’s Cam Miller. His 167.2 passer efficiency ranks No. 5 in the subdivision.

Bouman’s favorite target has been Carter Bell, who leads USD with 46 catches for 685 yards and three touchdowns. Quaron Adams has become a home-run hitter, hauling in 16 catches for 457 yards (28.56 yards per catch) and five touchdowns. First Team All-MVFC tight end JJ Galbreath has 20 catches for 356 yards and two scores, but he hasn’t played since late October with an injury and is questionable this week.

However, USD’s offense wants to establish the run first. And the Yotes have a top RB duo in the FCS.

Travis Theis and Charles Pierre Jr. are they no. 3 and 4 graded FCS running backs on PFF. Pierre has 1,153 rushing yards (7.6 yards per carry) and 15 touchdowns. Theis has 976 rushing yards (6.3 YPC) and 16 scores. They run behind a big and experienced o-line with First Team All-MVFC selection Joey Lombard (6’5″ 305 lbs) and two Second Team performers Joe Cotton (6’7″ 315 lbs) and Bryce Henderson (6’8″ 320 lbs).

It will be strength upon strength.

UC Davis’ defense ranks No. 23 in FCS rushing defense (119.9 YPG) and no. 29 in scoring defense (22.2 PPG). Similar to USD, opponents have had more success throwing the ball than running it. The Aggies are allowing 240.4 passing yards per game. game, which is 96th in the FCS.

The Aggies are physical against the run. Princeton Toki sets the tone in the middle at 5-foot-11 and 375 pounds. Zach Kennedy is also physically impressive on the defensive end. The 6-foot-6, 275-pounder is a First Team All-Big Sky selection with 27 tackles, five TFLs, two sacks and five quarterback hurries. At 6-foot-5, 300 pounds, Evan Bearden is a Second Team All-Conference player with 27 tackles and 1.5 TFLs.

David Meyer has had a phenomenal year at linebacker. All-Conference First Teamer has 113 tackles, 7.5 TFLs and four interceptions. First-team safety Rex Connors isn’t far behind with 99 tackles, three TFLs, two interceptions and six pass breakups. Rex’s twin brother, Porter, is a second-team linebacker with 81 tackles, 5.5 TFLs and three interceptions.

Kavir Bains also enjoyed an outstanding season as a First Team All-Big Sky selection. The defensive back has 74 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, two interceptions and 13 pass breakups.

UC Davis is 11th in the FCS with 15 interceptions.

Special teams

UC Davis kicker Hunter Ridley is 16/18 on field goals with a long of 46 yards. Matteo Perez has returned 19 punts for 74 yards. CJ Hutton has returned 11 kicks for 248 yards.

South Dakota kicker Will Leyland is 9/13 on field goals with a long of 45 yards. Carter Bell has 11 punt returns for 115 yards and a touchdown. Keyondray Jones-Logan has eight punt returns for 325 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 40.6 yards per carry. return, which would be no. 1 in FCS.

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Prediction record:
2024 Record: 122-37
2023 Record: 96-42

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UC Davis-South Dakota Prediction

This looks to be a great quarter final game, probably the best this weekend.

Both teams have good backfields, playmakers on the outside and strong defenses. Which quarterback makes the big throws in big moments can be the difference. Both offenses coincidentally rank around the Top 20 in third down conversions at 45%. There will be a cash discount on Saturday.

The Yotes are so talented defensively. Still, opponents have seemed to find something in the last few games. North Dakota scored 36, NDSU scored 28 and Tarleton State scored 31 last week. Some of that is due to the game flow or unique schemes. But there is something there. And if there’s an offensive coaching staff that can exploit the vulnerabilities, it’s UC Davis, led by head coach Tim Plough.

USD is as well-rounded a team as there is in the FCS, as evidenced by its win over NDSU and near-win at SDSU. But there’s just something about this UC Davis team. The pressure is on the USD here. The Coyotes are at home and are considered an FCS title contender for the first time. UC Davis is the slight underdog and has a coolness yet confidence about them.

Davis matches up well with what USD wants to do offensively to keep this ball game close on the road. And I think the Aggies can find ways to get their playmakers in space and be successful. It’s going to come down to it, and if UC Davis has a chance to tie or go for the win late in the game, I think the Aggies will go for the win.

Prediction: UC Davis 36-35 (OT)

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