Scenarios for Indianapolis to make after the season

On By Littum

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The Indianapolis Colts have endured an up-and-down second season under coach Shane Steichen, but they enter Week 17 with a legitimate chance to make the playoffs.

Such a race seemed unlikely when it Colts lost head-to-head to Denver Broncos in a critical game in Week 15, when Indianapolis fell to 6-8. However, an easier late-season schedule has placed the Colts among the top contenders for the AFC’s No. 7 seed.

The Colts have little room for error in their quest for the playoffs. They also need help reaching the postseason for the first time since 2020.

How narrow is Indianapolis’ path to the postseason? Here’s a look at the Colts’ playoff chances entering their Week 17 contest.

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Colts playoff chances

The Colts have an 18% chance to make the playoffs before Sunday in Week 17, according to Athletics playoff prediction model. That ranks as the highest chance among the three teams positioned to battle the Broncos for the AFC’s No. 7-seed (the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals have 16% and 7% chances respectively).

Colts playoff odds

Oddsmakers are a little more pessimistic about the Colts’ postseason chances. DraftKing’s Sportsbook lists Indianapolis at +650 odds to make the postseason heading into Week 17’s Sunday action. That gives the Colts a 13.33% implied probability of qualifying for the playoffs.

What needs to happen for the Colts to make the playoffs?

The Colts need two things to happen to make the playoffs. They are as follows:

  • Colts need to win their last two games;
  • The Broncos must lose in Week 18 again Kansas City Chiefs.

It represents the Colts’ only path to postseason contention, which Houston Texas already wrapped up the AFC South by virtue of their nine wins and two head-to-head wins over the Colts.

Høl’s remaining schedule

The good news for Colts fans? Indianapolis has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, per Tankathon. They play against New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguarswho have an overall record of 5-25 over the final two weeks of the season.

The Colts will be favored in both of these games. That will give them a chance to win and put pressure on the Broncos to win in a tough game in Week 18.

Below is a full look at Indianapolis’ schedule:

Broncos remaining schedule

The other good news for the Indianapolis faithful is that the Broncos have a tough finish to the 2024 NFL season. They face the 15-1 Chiefs in the final week of the season. Sean Payton’s crew will need to bring its A-game to knock off Kansas City after failing to clinch a playoff berth in a 30-24 Week 17 loss to the Bengals.

That said, the Chiefs have already bagged the No. 1 seed in the AFC and could rest their starters in that game. If Patrick Mahomes and Co. not playing in that contest or playing only partially, which could give Denver an easier path toward winning the AFC’s No. 7 seed.

Will Andy Reid prioritize rest or see Week 18 as a chance to knock a division rival out of the playoffs? The answer to that question could determine whether the Colts have a legitimate chance to make the postseason.

Below is a complete look at Denver’s schedule:

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Colts potential playoff opponents

If the Colts make the NFL playoffs, they can only be the No. The 7 seed. That leaves them with two potential first-round opponents. They are as follows:

The Bills have the inside to seed no. 2 in the postseason and can end it with a Week 17 win over New York Jets.

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AFC playoff picture week 17

AFC

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
  2. Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
  3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
  4. Houston Texas (9-7, AFC South winners)*
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
  6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card no. 2)*
  7. Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

NFC

  1. Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
  3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
  4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
  5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card no. 1)*
  6. Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
  7. Washington’s commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

A star

denotes team that has earned a playoff berth. Teams that have won division titles are noted accordingly.