Evaluating the Falcons’ postseason chances in Week 16

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. – The clock is ticking in the regular season.

With just three games left in the season, the Falcons (7-7) playoff probability is 31%, according to NFL.com. A win in Week 16 against the New York Giants (2-12) would increase the chance to 38%. Atlanta made a significant change at the quarterback position as it battles for a playoff spot, naming Michael Penix Jr. for the starter on Tuesday.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) continue to hold the No. 1 in the NFC South. The Bucs beat the Los Angeles Chargers in their last outing and are in the midst of a four-game winning streak since their bye week. For the Falcons to win the division, Tampa must lose at least one more game and Atlanta must match the Bucs’ record at the end of the regular season.

On paper, the Falcons’ toughest remaining challenge will be a Week 17 game against the Washington Commanders (9-5), which the league announced Tuesday was flexed for “Sunday Night Football.” The Commanders currently hold the last wild card spot in the NFC. The Falcons could potentially earn that wild card spot, but would have to win out and have Washington lose two games, including one to Atlanta.

Time is running out and the margin for error is close to zero for many teams, including the Falcons. Here’s a current look at the NFC playoff picture as of Wednesday, December 18.