Fantasy Football Week 16 Start Sit Decisions: James Conner smash spot

Quarterback

Start: Matthew Stafford, Rams

The Jets are not a defense to be feared since they fired former head coach Robert Saleh. They canned Saleh after five games despite the defense being the only part of the team that did its job. Since the kickoff, Gang Green is 22nd in yards per carry. allowed attempt and 30th place in EPA per conceded pass play. Vegas is also buying Rams stock with a team total of 25.25. Stafford, who averages 18 points per game with four top-10 fantasy finishes since getting his receivers back should return against the Jets this week.

Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld football show all season for the latest player news, waiver help, start/sit advice and more.

Start: Michael Penix, Falcons

I do not wish to divulge this information to you, but I am morally bound to tell the truth. Sportsbooks have the Falcons at an implied team of 25.25. That’s higher than the Eagles, Chiefs and Vikings, just to name a few teams. He gets a Giants defense this week that ranks 29th in the EPA as of dropback allowed. The Giants give up the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Penix is ​​the best streaming option you will find in week 16.

Seated: Geno Smith, Seahawks

The Seahawks have largely abandoned their pass-heavy roots coming out of their Week 10 bye. Since then, Seattle has a completely neutral above-expected pass rate.

Geno has averaged 31 attempts for 229 yards and 0.8 scores since the bye, even after ejecting the Week 15 contest midway through the game. Geno’s best finish over his last five appearances is QB20.

Seated: CJ Stroud, Texas

Stroud has a 20-point fantasy performance this year and that came over two months ago. Vegas has the road-tripping Texans with an embarrassing team total of 19.5 points in a game with 42.5 total. The Chiefs give up the 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. There’s no reason to roll Stroud out with a fantasy championship spot on the line.

Running back

Start: Bucky Irving, Bucs

Irving’s role didn’t fully return in Week 15. He tied Rachaad White with 15 carries and two targets per carry. The good news is that he is more than efficient enough to be an RB2 on half of the backfield touches. Irving is seventh in rush yards above expectations as of carry (0.87) and first in yards after contact per experiment (4,2). Irving is averaging 17.1 PPR points when he sees more than a dozen touches. All six of those contests have come within the past eight weeks.

Start: James Conner, Cardinals

This is the place for all the seats for Conner. The Panthers aren’t just the best matchup for running backs. They are the best match for running backs by a country mile. Carolina has faced 30 more running back rush attempts than any other team. They are 361 rushing yards clear of the No. 31 team and is tied for a league-high in rushing touchdowns allowed. With backups Emari Demercado and Trey Benson out this week, Conner sees a 25-touch game against the worst defense in football.

Seated: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots

Stevenson has been terrible in losses this year. His rushing output has been cut, and he presents almost no reason for fantasy managers as a pass-catcher

This is in part because Stevenson stays inside as an extra blocker on 21 percent of his passing plays, putting him on pace for a career high. He also runs fewer routes lined up in the slot or out wide. Having lost his luster as a dual-threat back, Stevenson is not in the RB2 lineup for a potential blowout at the hands of Buffalo.

Seated: Tyrone Tracy, Giants

Tracy was completely relegated to committee back duties in Week 15. He saw nine carries to Devin Singletary’s seven and only targeted the veteran back 4-3. Tracy earned his second-lowest snap share since Week 4. Now he and the G-Men are 8.5 point underdogs on the road this week. Tracy Stans should send him to the bench until he ices Singletary again.

Wide receiver

Start: Khalil Shakir, Bills

We’re doing everything we can to get the Bills in our lineups this week. They have a team implied 29.5 points and face a Patriots defense that has given up the second-most expected points added per game. dropback. The only problem is that very few bills have clearly defined roles. Shakir is the only receiver to trust this week. He led the team in routes in Week 15 and posted a 23 percent target percentage. He easily leads the rankings in yards and targets per game. route, and ranks top-15 in both metrics league-wide.

Start: Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals

It’s a get it or go home place for MHJ supporters. He gets a Carolina defense that ranks 30th in the EPA as of dropback allowed. The Panthers have allowed the ninth-most explosive passing plays this year and are especially susceptible to boundary players, giving up the third-most explosive gains to wide receivers. If you made it this far with Marv in your lineup, this is his redemption arc.

Seated: Rom Odunze, Bears

Odunze is tied for a team-high in deep targets, notching 14 such looks this year. They account for over a quarter of his targets, but the rookie has come down with just two of them for 74 scoreless yards. The biggest problem has been his quarterback. Caleb Williams ranks 40th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks in PFF who passed the grade on deep throws. The lack of consistent catchable long balls has made Odunze an imaginative afterthought. He has finished among the top 30 receivers once in his last six appearances.

Seated: Jerry Jeudy, Browns

Newly minted Browns starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson made three appearances last year. He threw for 121, 165 and 134 yards in those games. The best reception by any of his wideouts in those contests was a 6/60/0 line from Elijah Moore.

DTR ranks 90th in EPA and 91st in CPOE out of 91 qualified quarterbacks (min. 200 dropbacks) since 2020. The potential for a mid-game replacement for Jameis Winston is also in doubt as the gunslinger is now dealing with a shoulder injury. The floor with Jeudy is too low to rank him as anything other than a WR3.

Tight End

Start: Brenton Strange, Jaguars

Strange earned a dozen goals on a 28 percent shooting percentage with Evan Engram out last week. Engram is done for the year, meaning Strange will drag out the start over the final three weeks. Strange’s Week 15 breakout shouldn’t come as a surprise. He finished as the TE1 three times in four Engram absences earlier this year and notched his fifth top-12 performance with 11 receptions for 73 yards last week.

Start: TJ Hockenson, Vikings

Hockenson hasn’t hit elite marks in the box since returning to the lineup, but he’s already cemented himself as one of the highest floors at his position. He has finished as the TE1 in four of his last six appearances. Hockenson ranks 12th in goal share (19 percent) and 11th in goals per game. route running (0.21) despite being eased back into the lineup for a few weeks.

Seated: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys

Ferguson is 14th in goal share and 24th in yardage share this year. His calling card in 2023 was an elite role when the Cowboys got into scoring position. This year, Ferguson is still looking for his first target in the end zone and has seen a paltry eight percent of the team’s red zone snaps. You can do better with the exemption this week.

Seated: Chig Okonkwo, Titans

Okonkwo broke out with eight catches for 59 yards on 10 targets last week, prompting some fantasy managers to pick him up as a streaming option. Don’t do it. Okonkwo ran a route on 53 percent of the Titans’ dropbacks. He barely played more passing snaps than backup tight end Josh Whyle. His field goal percentage of 28 percent was nine percent higher than his previous best mark on the year, and he has recorded a route rate of over 70 percent in just three games. Okonkwo is a part-timer who is unlikely to double up on his solid Week 15 outing.