Oliveira vs. Chandler 2 Preview, Pick, Predictions

On Saturday, former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira meets Michael Chandler in a rematch of their May 2021 scrap for the vacant UFC 155-pound title. The fight serves as the co-main event for the UFC 309 fight card. In the main event, UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones puts his title on the line against two-time UFC heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic.

The UFC 309 PPV fight card takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City on November 16. The PPV card will be streamed on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+

UFC 309 Co-Main Event Preview: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2

Charles Oliveira (34-10-0-1) has been fighting with the UFC since 2010. He won the vacant lightweight title with his victory over Chandler and defended the title once, beating Dustin Poirier. He was booked to face Justin Gaethje in his second title defense, but Oliveira missed weight for the fight, which he won by submission and lost the title at the weight.

Oliveira had a chance to regain the belt in October 2022, but Islam Makhachev submitted him and claimed the vacant belt. Since that loss, Oliveira is 1-1, beat Beneil Dariush by TKO in June 2023 and lost to Arman Tsarukyan via split decision in April of this year.

Oliveira is the No. 2 fighter in official UFC lightweight rankings.

Michael Chandler (23-8) had been waiting for a matchup with Conor McGregor. After an extended delay, that fight was booked for UFC 303 in June. However, a broken toe during training camp prevented McGregor from competing.

Chandler last fought in November 2022 when he lost to former interim UFC lightweight champion Dustin Poirier. Chandler signed with the UFC as a free agent in 2020. He made his UC debut in January 2021 with a knockout win over Dan Hooker.

Oliveira and Chandler met in the main event of UFC 262 in May 2021. Oliveira won that contest via second-round TKO, claiming the vacant UFC 155-pound title in the process.

Chandler enters Saturday’s UFC 309 fight card as the No. 7 fighter in the UFC’s 155-pound weight class rankings.

UFC 309: Charles Oliveira at Michael Chandler

“It’s passed. We’re focused on this one right now,” Oliveira said through an interpreter. “It was an experience. He’s trying to prove he can beat me. I’m trying to prove I can beat him again. Let’s put that in the past and focus on this one.

“The plan is always to get better. That’s why we go back to the gym – to improve. You work with the things you have to. I lost to Jim Miller, I went back and then went out there and beat him. Michael Chandler, I know I beat him. But I’m always getting better.”

“He wants to be a champion for the first time. I want to be champion again,” added Oliveira. “The champion in the lightweight division has a name – we know that. I beat Michael Chandler once. I’m going to beat Michael Chandler again.

“I think a lot of people come and talk. Everyone comes here and says the same thing. They talk the talk. They say they have plans for things or they want to do something. But you have to come here and do things. This is a magical scene – a great place to be with the amount of energy. I want to be in this fight and push forward, charge forward.”

UFC 309: Michael Chandler at Charles Oliveira

“It was probably the most painful point in my career after a loss,” Chandler said of his loss to Oliveira. “Because it was my only option, I thought.

“You never know in this sport, man. That’s what you’ve been doing to me lately. That’s you lose and all of a sudden – I’m the flavor of the week this week. People are excited to see me fight. You lose what what happens then. Are you able to build yourself back up.

“It was my only opportunity, I thought, to finally be — that dream that I’ve had since I was 22, coming into the sport, following Ben Askren and Tyron Woodley and saying, ‘Hey, a today I want to be the No. 1 guy in the world.’ And Charles Oliveira crushed that dream, and now it’s just so serendipitous that now I’m getting this opportunity against him again to right that wrong and get back in the win column to be the No. 1 contender, and then fight a widely regarded – one of the greatest lightweights of all time, in who I think will be Islam (Makhachev, I think he beats Arman (Tsarukyan) when they fight in January or whenever, so it will be interesting .

UFC 309 Odds: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2

Oliveira opened as -198 betting favorite over Chandler, who was +164 when this bout was announced. Today, the betting line has the former UFC champion listed at -280, while Chandler is the +200 betting underdog.

The final odds for the UFC 262 fight between Oliveira and Chandler saw the Brazilian fighter come in as a -135 favorite, while the American was a +110 betting underdog.

UFC 309 Predictions and Picks: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2

Chandler has the power to stop this fight with his strikes, but Oliveira has the edge in technical skills and huge IQ. Look for Oliveira to throw a lot of leg kicks early to stop his opponent’s forward momentum. Once Oliveira establishes his kicking game, look for the fight to go to the mat where Oliveira will win a submission.

For those leaning towards Chandler, if he wins, it will likely come via knockout.

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