Three keys: Control emotions and the ball to win

Texas Longhorns no. 3 have one last game standing between them and their goal for the season, a rivalry more than a decade in the making. The Longhorns head to College Station and Kyle Field for their fourth road game of the year to take on Texas A&M Aggies.

This rivalry game is always high stakes, with bragging rights up for grabs for the next 12 months. Because this year is also a play-in game for the SEC Championship game, which would be a first for both teams, the stakes couldn’t possibly be higher.

Resist the emotional wave

While there are many statistical categories to look at, this is probably the biggest key to the game. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian talks about “playing with emotion, but not emotion,” and this game is one of the most emblematic of that axiom. Texas has played just three road games this year, two of which came in some of the most unfriendly settings known to college football; Michigan in Ann Arbor and Arkansas in Fayetteville.

None of those matchups have the emotional resonance or stakes of this game in the final week of the regular season. The closest emotional wave is likely Cotton bowl against Oklahoma Soonersbut the team they faced in Dallas isn’t quite as solid as the one Texas will play in College Station. With a capacity of nearly 103,000 fans, every seat will be packed and loud for the rivalry 13 years in the making. Add to that a berth in the SEC Championship game, managing emotions will be key.

Can Texas run the ball?

Perhaps the biggest indicator of success for Texas A&M is how well their defense plays the run and their opponents’ ability to win on the field. In their eight wins, the Aggies held opponents to an average of 95 rushing yards; in four of those wins, they held their opponents to less than 100 yards. The high-water mark in a win is 125 yards against Mississippi State, which happens to be the most any opponent has scored against A&M in a losing effort. In their four losses, that number jumps to 217 yards, an average that includes two of their last three carries, giving up 286 to South Carolina and 168 to Auburn.

Despite some of the frustrations for the Longhorns on the ground, they have been relatively consistent in moving the ball if they can hold on to it. In two of the last three games, the Longhorns have gone over 200 yards on the ground, rushing for 210 against Arkansas and 250 against Kentucky. Perhaps the most frustrating stretch for Texas is the back-to-back weeks against Georgia and Vanderbilt, a loss and a near-loss that were also their two worst rushing performances of the year.

Watch the football

The two best units on the field Saturday are easily the defenses, both of which excel at turning opponents over via interception. Texas jumped to 17 on the year with two against Kentucky, good enough for the No. 2 in the country, while Texas A&M is ranked No. 24 with 12. The interception total includes three three-interception games, and all three came against SEC opponents — Florida, Arkansas and LSU. While that number puts the Aggies plus-four in turnover margin on the year, they are minus-two over the last five games, allowing at least one interception in four of the last five contests.

Texas hovered around even on the turnover margin early in the year, but has excelled in SEC play, forcing 13 turnovers in the last five contests, 10 of which came via interceptions. The Horns have also struggled to hold onto the ball all year with their nine fumbles and at least one game remaining in the regular season, setting them up for their worst year since 2016.