Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos Prediction – Pickswise

Heading into the final week of the regular season, Boise State has clearly emerged as the favorite to secure the Group of 5 playoff berth (although Tulane, UNLV and Army aren’t too far behind). With their strong resume to this point, the Broncos just need to win, and they don’t exactly need style points to keep their standing stable and march toward a conference title and playoff spot. That mindset is important when considering Friday’s matchup against an Oregon State team fresh off its best game of the season after a win over Washington State in Corvallis a week ago. As for the hosts, we just saw the Broncos pull off a tough win against Wyoming as 3-touchdown favorites in Laramie, and with the Mountain West title game on deck, the Boise State team is in a tough spot this week.

While the Beavers aren’t exactly the toughest opponent Boise State has seen all season, this will be a 7 p.m. 10 a.m. local time the day after Thanksgiving, which is a pretty odd schedule. We can also expect temperatures in the mid-30s, which could make it more difficult to throw the football down the field consistently. In a game where they just need to win and likely won’t be concerned with margin or style points, the Broncos should turn to their ground game and lean on all-world running back Ashton Jeanty to grind out methodical scores on the ground , while wearing down an Oregon State defense that is 123rd in passing success rate allowed and 102nd in opponent EPA per. rush on season. That game script is conducive to the Beavers keeping the score within this inflated number, and I can definitely see Boise State’s offense keeping things pretty vanilla with a potential rematch with UNLV in the conference title game on the horizon.

Over on defense, the Broncos are coming off a solid effort against Wyoming, but it was far from their best performance. This unit has dealt with injuries in recent weeks – much like the Broncos’ offensive line – so I have reason to be concerned about their ability to get off the field (76th in 3rd down success rate allowed) an Oregon State team playing for bowl eligibility and should approach this contest with nothing to lose. We shouldn’t expect many explosive plays from Boise State in this contest, which also bodes well for a game script that shadows the underdog. While it’s unlikely that the Beavers’ poor run defense will be able to contain Jeanty and the Boise State ground attack, this is still a game where the Broncos offense will likely slow down in the second half given the matchup on deck. Let’s take the underdog on the blue grass on Friday.

Oregon State vs Boise State Prediction: Oregon State +20.5 available at time of publication. Can be played until 18.5

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