Fantasy Football Week 13 Start Sit Decisions: Thanksgiving Edition

On By Littum

Quarterback

Start: Cooper Rush, Cowboys

Is cooper rush good? Of course not. Does it matter? Only a little. The Cowboys let Rush sling it over the last two weeks with a +6% above-expected pass rate.

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Rush has 601 yards and three touchdowns in those two games. Vegas wouldn’t normally buy high on a backup quarterback after a single win, but the Cowboys face a slumping Giants defense with their own backup quarterback on the other side of the ball. The Cowboys are 3.5 point favorites with a total of 20.25. That’s ahead of the Bears on Thursday and the Raiders on…Friday. We’re doing Friday football now, really? Rush is a viable QB2 with sneaky potential in DFS.

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Sitting: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

I don’t know who the Giants’ quarterback is, and it felt too easy to take the quarterback with the second-lowest team total on Thanksgiving (Caleb Williams). Tua isn’t a complete fade this week, but it’s a tough spot for the Miami signal caller. The Packers are ranked eighth in the EPA per dropback allowed and has given up the sixth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Dolphins are road underdogs with a team total just 1.5 points ahead of Rush’s Cowboys. The game total is also down a bit, possibly due to the temperature, which will be in the 20s around kickoff.

Tagovailoa has posted terrible numbers outside of Miami’s blistering heat. In games with a temperature of 55 or below at kickoff, Tua has averaged 219 yards and 1.2 touchdowns over the past three seasons, good for a paltry 13.7 fantasy points.

Running back

Start: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys

Dowdle finished taking over the Dallas backfield last week with a season-high 70 percent of the Cowboys’ carries. He tied his season-high in touches (22) and amassed 98 yards from scrimmage. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs and sit 27th in EPA as of rush attempt allowed.

Seated: D’Andre Swift, Bears

Like most running backs, Swift does better when his team is winning. Unlike some running backs, he doesn’t have the role or effectiveness to survive most of Chicago’s losses. Swift goes from RB3 numbers in defeat to advanced RB1 production in the Bears’ rare wins.

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As 10-point underdogs this week, a Bears win is as unlikely as they come. Swift has also conceded the goal line role to Roschon Johnson, making touchdowns even harder to come by.

Wide receiver

Start: Jameson Williams, Lions

The Bears are a great defense overall, but their inability to prevent chunk gains has been a glaring leak in the unit this year. Chicago ranks 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed (16.8 percent) and 27th in YPA on deep throws. Williams has seen 37 percent of the Lions’ deep targets despite missing two games. He leads the team with 161 yards and two scores on deep punts.

Seated: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs

Another edition of the Week 13 Start Sits will be out on Friday for the Sunday games, but we can talk about the Black Friday matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders here. No Chiefs wide receivers are playable. DeAndre Hopkins ran a route on 45 percent of the team’s dropbacks last week and has a route rate below 50 percent over the last two weeks. He has 10 goals over his last two games and a 15 percent goal share since joining the Chiefs.

Tight End

Start: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins

Smith leads the Dolphins with a 22 percent field goal percentage since the team’s Week 6 bye. His 25 percent first-read goal share is also pacing the team. He is fourth in yards per carry. route and fifth in ESPN’s open scoring among tight ends. Although Tua is struggling, Smith has played well enough and gets the ball often enough to come home against a Packers defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends this year.

Seated: Sam LaPorta, Lions

LaPorta’s role seemed headed in the right direction before a shoulder injury sidelined him in Week 11. He returned to the low-key gig he’s played most of this season in the following game, earning five goals on a target share of 16 percent. LaPorta is nothing more than a Week 13 TE2.