49ers’ playoff path murky: Is Sunday a must-win?

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — As captain and one of the longest-tenured players on the San Francisco 49ers, tight end George Kittle not only projects maximum optimism and confidence at all times. He lives it, breathes it and never stops trying to inject his positive energy into the dressing room.

After one 38-10 Defeated at the hands of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, Kittle took the podium for his post-mortem and was asked if that optimism ever fades, especially in light of the team’s worst loss since 2018.

“Why should it?” Kittle said. “We’re in no way where we want to be. To lose by 28, that’s terrible. We’re not going to do that… But all my optimism is not broken.

“We still have a lot of very talented players. We’re going to get some guys back, and I still have full confidence that the coaching staff can put our guys in a position to play, and I’m not worried about that. But definitely one up back off the grind and go see what we’re made of, which I’m looking forward to.”

While optimism is part of Kittle’s job description, it’s increasingly difficult for anyone on the outside to believe these 49ers have another finish that they’ve found in recent seasons in their back pocket.

The loss to the Packers dropped the 49ers to 5-6, leaving them below. 500 for the first time in Week 12 or later since the injury-plagued, playoff-free 2020 season. And while they got some help in the NFC West division (the Rams and Cardinals lost) to stay one game out of first place, the 49ers are running out of time to get healthy and/or fix the issues that have persisted through this season.

Even if the Niners stop racking up silly penalties, turning the ball over, missing tackles, being a disaster on special teams and other pressing issues, nothing will come easy against a remaining schedule that ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks as the third-toughest in the NFL.

It begins with a cross-country road trip to face the 9-2 Buffalo Bills (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), but also includes a Dec. 30 home meeting with the No. 1 Detroit Lions. 1 (10-1).

The Bills, who have yet to lose at home this season, are averaging the third-most points per game (29.1) in the NFL. Their defense is allowing 19.5 points per game. match (seventh best).

All of this leaves the Niners barely clinging to what’s left of their playoff hopes.

The FPI gives them a 17% chance to make the postseason with a 13.6% chance to win the division, which is behind both the Cardinals (49%) and Seahawks (24.9%). FTNs DVOA is even more down on San Francisco’s chances, assigning it an 11.5% postseason shot with a 7.9% chance to claim the NFC West and a 3.6% shot at a wild-card berth.

While the 49ers stared long playoff odds in the eye as recently as 2021 and made it to the NFC Championship Game, this group has little to no margin for error the rest of the way. They might be able to overcome a single loss. Two would probably be a death knell.

“We know what we have in front of us. We know exactly what that playoff situation is. It is what it is,” coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday. “But the only thing that matters is this week. When you need to make a run and win a lot to even think about it, you better make sure you’re only thinking about one thing and that’s Buffalo .”

Because San Francisco is 1-3 in the division and the best they can do is 3-3, they will likely need help in the event of a tiebreaker. From a wild card perspective, a 3-5 record against NFC foes won’t serve the Niners well either.

Of course, any such discussion of help from elsewhere is dependent on them stringing together wins in the last six weeks, something that hasn’t happened all year – they’ve won two games in a row once this season.

Coming off a Week 9 bye, the 49ers were hoping running back Christian McCaffrey’s return would give them a boost. So far this has not happened. He is averaging 93.7 scrimmage yards through three games with no touchdowns.

An argument could be made that San Francisco is not only worse off injury-wise now than it was before McCaffrey returned, but also has even more problems.

For example The 49ers have averaged 8.7 penalties per game. game since the bye, and that’s tied for eighth in the NFL in that span. Suddenly, they rank 21st in the NFL in total penalties, with many of those flags coming in costly situations.

The 49ers have minus-8.31 expected points added on offensive penalties (26th) and minus-8.21 EPA on defensive penalties (28th), while losing four of their games by a combined 14 points.

“We’ve got to be a lot better with the penalties,” Shanahan acknowledged. “When you’re missing some guys, you’ve got to be better.”

Perhaps Sunday’s blowout loss to Green Bay was easy to see coming because of who the Niners didn’t have.

But they’re optimistic they’ll get quarterback Brock Purdy (right shoulder) back on Wednesday, as he threw lightly on Monday with no issues. End Nick Bosa (left oblique) and tackle Trent Williams (ankle) will be listed as day-to-day after missing Sunday’s game.

The practice window for linebacker Dre Greenlaw (torn Achilles) has been opened and he will practice for the first time Wednesday. Cornerback Charvarius Ward (personal) could also return as early as this week. But this season has offered plenty of reminders that as soon as one player returns, two more can suffer an injury.

“I’m hoping guys will take care of their body stuff here during the day and a half they’re away from us. We’ll be back Wednesday … ready to fight because that’s all we can do right now is just fight our butt,” Shanahan said Monday. “And I’ll be very surprised that not every guy in this building when I see them on Wednesday is ready for that exact mindset that we’re going to have to do what we feel we can.”

Kittle, Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner believe they have the guys in the locker room to make another push toward the postseason. Even when evidence shows otherwise.

“We have really good players who have been in tough positions before and we’ve got to win some games,” Bosa said. “So either we win and make the season what we wanted it to be from the start, or we let it slide. But we’re going to push as hard as we can.”