Why the Premier League table (currently) is the most congested for 18 years

In the early years of the Premier League, everything seemed to be up for grabs.

As they often did under Sir Alex Ferguson, Manchester United pulled away with a winning streak at the end of the 1992-93 season to lift the first Premier League title, but some unknown names followed them at the top of the table. Aston Villa went from 17th in 1990-91 to finish second two seasons later. Norwich City, Blackburn Rovers and Queens Park Rangers completed the top five, with Liverpool in sixth place.

The following season, Wimbledon – who finished 12th in 1992-93 – finished sixth.

But as the 2000s ushered in the ‘Big Four’ era, the chances of an unlikely name rising to the upper ranks of the Premier League table like this diminished.

As the Premier League established itself as the world’s dominant football league and ushered in the “Big Six” age, the finishing positions that qualified you for European competition the following season essentially became an exclusive club for the richest and most prestigious, apart from the odd exception.

During the first three months of this season, however, the competitiveness of the old ones is back.

Since 2006-07, when just five points separated third-placed Arsenal and 13th-placed Fulham at the start of December, the Premier League has never been more congested so far into a season.

While Liverpool are showing signs that they could pull away from the pack with their five-point lead through 11 games, and the bottom seven teams more or less cut off, just four points separate third-placed Chelsea from Manchester United, who is in 13th place.

So why is the race for Europe so close as things stand?

Looking at the injury record of the top teams, it is easy to see why they are not repeating their dominance of recent seasons.

Mikel Arteta elevated Arsenal into title contenders two seasons ago largely due to a durable and healthy core group of players. Last season only Fulham had fewer separate injuries (22) than Arsenal (23) and they were fortunate to keep their key men fit for most of the campaign. This time luck has turned upside down.

Among others, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, William Saliba and Martin Odegaard have all missed games at various times during these first 11 games. Since 2022-23, Arsenal’s average points per game over Odegaard’s 76 games in the side is 2.26, but without him (11 games) it drops to 1.82.

Extrapolated over the length of a Premier League season, Arsenal would finish on 86 points with Odegaard and just 69 without him. By the first count, they would have finished first, or level with the champions, twice in the past 10 seasons and second on five occasions. In that period, the average number of points for the fourth-placed team in the Premier League is 70.1. In other words, Arsenal are a title contender with Odegaard and a borderline top-4 squad if he is absent.

Arteta’s favored back four from the early stages of the season – Jurrien Timber, Saliba, Gabriel and Riccardo Calafiori – have not started together in the league since the 2-2 draw with Manchester City on September 22 due to injury and suspension. Calafiori looks set to return to fitness this international break after a month out with a knee problem, but Ben White – also among Arteta’s primary rotation of defenders – now looks set for a longer spell on the sidelines after undergoing minor knee surgery in November window.

It’s not so sunny up at the Etihad Stadium either.

For the first time in Pep Guardiola’s 17-year managerial career, Manchester City’s 2-1 defeat at Bournemouth last weekend handed one of his sides a fourth straight defeat.

The air of invincibility surrounding Guardiola’s four-time defending Premier League champions appears to be disappearing. City are scoring fewer goals, conceding slightly more possession and their counter-pressing (having players in optimal areas within a defensive structure to quickly win the ball back after losing it) is the most disjointed it has been since the Catalan left third place in his 2016–17 debut season in England.

Rodri has been Guardiola’s defensive anchor in holding midfield during their recent dominant stretch in the Premier League, but the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury sustained against Arsenal in September. Opposition teams are now cutting through City’s midfield when they counter-attack much more easily. So far they have conceded 13 Premier League goals, more than surprise package Nottingham Forest and arch-rivals United, who are in the bottom half of the table. At this point last season they had conceded just eight.

Still, City have developed a reputation for lulling their title rivals into a false sense of security with an uncharacteristically poor autumn and winter spell, before reeling off a string of back-to-back victories in the spring to ensure the trophy remains at the Etihad.

While Arsenal and City are stuttering, Liverpool are taking advantage.

Just as their old comrades United did in 2006-07, they have begun to open a gap over the chasing pack. New coach Arne Slot’s side currently lead the Premier League with 28 points thanks to nine wins and a draw from their opening 11 games.

They are also flying high in the Champions League, topping the new 36-man league stage after half of their eight games. While they head into a tough run of fixtures, with Real Madrid, City, Newcastle and a Merseyside derby against Everton on the horizon after Sunday’s trip to last-placed Southampton, few would be surprised to see Liverpool still top of the Premier League League. League at Christmas.

Meanwhile, Villa and Tottenham, who were both within three points of the top at Christmas last year, are ninth and tenth. Spurs have lost as many games as they have won (five) and for various reasons Villa have not adapted to the squad demands that come with playing in the Champions League.

Many of their best performances, notably the 1-0 win over Bayern Munich in October, have been saved for that competition. Apart from his spell at Paris Saint-Germain (who tend to dominate France’s Ligue 1 regardless of who is in the dugout), manager Unai Emery, while a master tactician against superior opposition on European nights, has historically struggled to prepare sides to compete on several fronts.

Although he won three consecutive Europa League finals with Sevilla from 2014-16, Emery did not guide them to a top-four finish in La Liga in any of those seasons, finishing fifth twice and then seventh . Defying the odds to reach the semi-finals of Europe’s premier club competition with Villarreal in 2021-22, it again came at the expense of fulfilling their potential in domestic football – they finished seventh, 11 points behind fourth-placed Sevilla.

A major reason why Emery often struggles to succeed in several tournaments at once is the profile of the club he has typically won with. Sevilla and Villarreal are not giants of Spanish football and while Villa famously won the European Cup in 1982, they were in the Championship this time five years ago and were just above the Premier League’s relegation zone when he was appointed in October 2022.

He has typically performed best at new clubs who have strong and competitive starting XIs but lack the quality in depth to compete for titles on multiple fronts. While Villa are still firmly in the Champions League, where they sit eighth, and the European qualification race, it should come as no surprise given Emery’s history that their best form this season (three wins and a surprise defeat to Belgian Club Brugge) have come to Europe.

Chelsea have inherited Villa’s place as an outsider contender trying to hang on to the coattails of the top three. They have shown signs of a return to the domestic elite seven seasons after they last lifted the Premier League trophy.

Eight of the current top 13 have finished in the Champions League places within the last five seasons. Even West Ham, now 14th and slightly off the pace (three points behind Manchester United in 13th), tasted European glory as the 2022-23 Europa Conference League winners.

Forest, relegation candidates in both completed seasons since their long-awaited return to the top flight, have produced the biggest early shock of 2024-25 with 19 points from their 11 games. Sitting in fifth place – level on points with Arsenal and Chelsea – they are the only team to have beaten Liverpool in any competition so far, and they did so at Anfield, having won three games in a row before losing 3-1 at Newcastle United in their latest clash.

If they continued at their current 1.73 points per game pitch, Forest would finish with 65.6 points – which has been enough for a top-six finish in every season this decade.

Brighton & Hove Albion are also enjoying their best start to a Premier League season, level on points with Forest but sixth on goal difference. Fulham, one place below Brighton on 18 points, have also surprised many, as have Brentford (16) and Bournemouth (15), who are in 11th and 12th.

Perhaps the side with the most potential, along with Villa and Spurs, to string together a run of results to drag them closer to the top of the table is Manchester United, who are 13th but just four points behind fourth-placed Arsenal.

After cutting ties with Erik ten Hag at the end of October, they showed early signs of a significant turnaround in form under his assistant Ruud van Nistelrooy – picking up three wins and a draw over his spell as interim manager. They have now confirmed the arrival of Ruben Amorim as their new head coach.

Fresh from beating City 4-1 in the Champions League with Lisbon’s Sporting CP, Amorim took his first United training session on Monday. With a trip to one-win Ipswich Town at the weekend followed by games at Old Trafford against Norway’s Bodo/Glimt in the Europa League and Everton, currently 16th, the Portuguese manager has the opportunity to string together a positive run of results in his first couple. matches. It will also be necessary as United then face Arsenal, Forest and City in consecutive league games (the first and third of which are away games).

At this point, United look as likely to start with a bang under Amorim as they do to struggle, which is precisely the point.

For the first time in a while, everything feels possible in the Premier League.

(Top images: Getty Images)