Illinois vs. Rutgers Prediction: Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchup, Betting Trends & Stats

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Illinois (7-3) jumped out to a 4-0 start with quality wins over Kansas and Nebraska before running into a stout Penn State defense that held the Illini to 34 rushing yards and 219 total yards in the contest. They narrowly escaped with a 50-49 win over 1-9 Purdue (25% win expectation) and beat an offensive Michigan team before getting destroyed by Oregon 38-9 and losing a coin-flip game with one score for Minnesota. The Illini have been pretty projectable so far, losing to every team they’ve faced with a winning record and beating every program currently .500 or worse. Their offense is built around a conservative passing attack that sacrifices chunk play (107th in passing explosiveness) in favor of consistency (34th in pass success rate) and safety, with Illinois 2nd in the FBS with an interception rate of 1.0 %. The biggest problem on D is a morose run defense that ranks 130th in rushing success rate and 134th in stuff rate. Fortunately, their secondary has held up well, ranking 27th in yards per carry. successful passing game allowed while limiting opponents to just 5.4 yards per carry. conclusion (102.).

The Scarlet Knights (6-4) stormed through their early season schedule with notable wins over @Virginia Tech and Washington to open with a 4-0 record. But since then, Rutgers dropped one-score decisions against @Nebraska and UCLA in addition to getting crushed by USC and Wisconsin to even their record at 4-4. A much needed Week 10 Bye helped RU recalibrate as they went on to beat Minnesota and @Maryland the last two weeks to gain bowl eligibility. Offensively, RB Kyle Monangai leads a decent running game that ranks 16th in YAC and 54th in EPA/rush, but struggles to hit big plays at 103rd in yards per carry. successful rush. Conversely, the Scarlet Knights are allowing a brutal 50.6% success rate (126th in FBS) while ranking 125th in EPA/rush allowed. Despite a porous front line, Rutgers still fields the 32nd-ranked defense in the FBS, according to SP+.

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Game details and how to watch Illinois at Rutgers

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· Date: Saturday 23 November 2024
· Time: 12:00 AM EST
· Venue: SHI Stadium
· City: Piscataway, NJ
· TV/Streaming: Peacock

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Illinois at Rutgers betting odds

The latest odds from Friday morning:

  • Moneyline: Illinois (-115), Rutgers (-105)
  • Spread: Game vs. Illini -1
  • Over/Under: 47.5 points

This game opened with Rutgers slightly favored at -1, but has since flipped to Illinois -1 with a few books making the jump to -1.5. The money line hasn’t budged appreciably from each team’s initial drop of -110, while the game total of 47.5 points is up slightly from an opening of 47.

NBC Sports Betting Best Bets

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) opines:

“I think Illinois is balanced enough on each side of the ball to take advantage of Rutgers’ defensive weakness. The Illini rarely turn the ball over and do an excellent job of limiting big plays, so I’m backing Illinois on the money line to beat Scarlet Knights away.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insights, market analysis and statistical data to help players gain more information before placing their bets.

BetMGM College Football Insights: Odds to reach the playoffs

Line movement (open for now)

  • Indiana +15000 to -500
  • Tennessee +180 to -135
  • Colorado +2000 to -120

Highest Ticket %

  • Tennessee 5.0%
  • Iowa 4.8%
  • Utah 4.8%

Highest Handle %

  • Texas 10.1%
  • Indiana 6.4%
  • Alabama 5.7%

Greatest responsibility

Quarterback matchup for Illinois at Rutgers

  • Illinois: QB Luke Altymer spent his first two seasons at Ole Miss until it became clear that Jaxson Dart was HC Lane Kiffin’s preferred choice, and transferred to Illinois in 2023 and was named the starter for the season opener. Dart has taken a step this year, throwing for 2,132 yards, 7.5 YPA (6.9 last year) and a rock-solid 18-to-3 ratio (13-to-10 LY). Altmyer’s 75.1 PFF passing grade ranks 56th out of 92 qualifying signal callers, a mark on par with notable P5 QBs like Noah Fifita, Nico Iamaleava and Brendan Sorsby. Illinois’ passing attack ranks 34th in success rate (45.3%) and 28th in yards per carry. finish (6.5) under Altmyer’s guidance, which offsets a sloppy game that ranks 89th in success rate.
  • Rutgers: HC Greg Schiano moved on from woeful 2023 starting QB Gavin Wimsatt in favor of switching to former Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. The change in scenery worked wonders for Kaliakmanis, who has improved his yards per carry. attempts averaged from 6.2 to 7.0 and lowered his pressure-to-sack rate from 20.5% to 14.2%. To put that into perspective, Kaliakmanis increased his PFF passer rating from 58.2 to 77.9, which ranks 42nd out of 92 FBS qualifiers. RU can achieve a rare 8 win season if they can knock off @Rutgers and @Northwestern in their final two regular season contests.

Trends and latest statistics

  • Luke Altmyer (ILL) has thrown for first downs on 44% of his pass attempts on third and 10+ yards to go this season – 3rd-best among FBS Quarterbacks; Miami QB Cam Ward leads the nation with a 47.6% conversion rate and 10+.
  • Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 37 of 334 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season – 11th worst in FBS; Ole Miss leads the nation with a 26.5% TFL rate.
  • RU is holding opponents for a loss on 13.3% of the rushing attempts they have faced, 56th out of 67 Power Four teams. They are allowing an average of 7.3 yards and an 85% conversion rate in third-and-short situations.
  • Rutgers Skill players have caught just 168 of 297 passes this season as their 56.6% catch rate is tied for the third worst mark among Power Conference Teams. Florida State ranks last with a 51.4% catch rate (148 recs on 288 targets).

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