SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction, Odds & Picks

The SMU Mustangs are rolling and looking ready to compete in the ACC Championship as things stand, but the Virginia Cavaliers are standing in the way. The Cavaliers have faced an absolute grind lately as SMU marks the 4th top-20 opponent in Virginia’s last 5 games. During that stretch, the defense is allowing 35.75 points per game, and I have a hard time seeing how they’re going to slow down the Ponies. SMU ranks top-25 in total offense, EPA/dropback and 22nd in net points per. drive on attack. Despite ranking outside the top-60 in rushing, the Mustangs have been wildly efficient, especially through the air, leading to consistent big plays downfield. SMU ranks top-16 in passing efficiency as well as 20+, 30+ and 40+ yard plays, and I struggle to see how the hosts can match that production.

Virginia sits outside the top 100 FBS teams in net points per game. driving and success rate per dropback. Also, they have struggled to convert on 3rd and 4th downs and have especially struggled to convert in the red zone. Every possession matters for Virginia in this one, and with a turnover-prone QB in Anthony Colandrea, any kind of turnover issues will make the mound of matchup SMU’s offense turn into a mountain. All things considered, I’ll take the Mustangs to keep rolling.

SMU -9.5 (-110) available at time of publication. Can be played on that track.

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