Maharashtra Assembly Result: How Today’s Election Result Will Decide Tomorrow’s National Politics | Six big points

What happened in Maharashtra will not stay in Maharashtra. This is because the large and diverse state has become a laboratory, and the outcome of the general election is going to affect national politics in several ways. Leaders suggest that the BJP-led Mahayuti is sweeping the Maharashtra assembly elections, while the Congress’ Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) has been decimated.

Mahayuti is leading in 230 of the 288 seats in the assemblyand MVA at just 51. The BJP is leading in 132 of the 149 seats it contested, an astounding strike rate of 89%.

Here’s a look at the seven major findings to emerge from the expansive and diverse laboratory in Maharashtra. The fight here was the biggest since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and came close on the heels of the BJP’s Haryana coup.

1. WILL DECIDE THE FATE OF THE REFORMS, INCLUDING THE WAQF BILL

The Lok Sabha elections saw the BJP return to power for a historic third term, albeit with reduced numbers. The BJP runs the government with the help of its NDA allies.

However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has shown no signs of weakness on the reform front, expanding Ayushman Bharat health insurance coverage and introducing the United Pension Scheme.

However, there were some climbdownsas in the case of the lateral access scheme and the Radio and Television Services (Regulation) Bill. It was also supposed to restore indexation benefits that were withdrawn in Budget 2024-25.

The government also brought forward the bold Waqf Bill, which saw fierce protests from Muslim outfits and opposition parties. The Waqf Bill was referred to a joint parliamentary committee (JPC), which is now ready with its report.

The BJP’s stellar performance in Maharashtra, coming close on the heels of the party’s historic victory in Haryana, will boost confidence in the central government.

The Modi government will now confidently move forward with the Waqf Bill, which aims to reform how Waqf properties are managed. It may also help speed up the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) that PM Modi has renamed the Secular Civil Code.

The debate on the JPC’s report on the Waqf Bill may take place in the Winter Session itself.

2. HINDU CONSOLIDATION WITH ‘EK HAI TO SAFE’

In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP faced a pincer attack. While Muslim votes went collectively to the opposition parties, the Congress’ campaign around the caste count chipped away at BJP votes.

In both the 2014 and 2019 general elections, the BJP managed to get votes from all castes and communities, which was not the case in 2024.

The BJP lost crucial seats to the pincer attack and Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis held up the loss in Dhule by 3,800 votes as an example.

In the Dhule Lok Sabha seat, while the BJP led in five assembly segments, a landslide voted for the Congress in Muslim-dominated Malegaon Central turned victory into defeat.

“Batenge toh tengje,” warned Fadnavis. During the campaign in Dhule, PM Modi also gave call of “Ek hai toh safe hai”.

Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS), after its hands-off approach in UP and West Bengal in the general elections hit the ground in Maharashtra.

The RSS involved 65 organizations in its ‘Sajag Raho’ (be alert) campaign to prevent a division of Hindu votes on caste lines.

Maharashtra was thus turned into a Hindutva 2.0 laboratory and the RSS-BJP’s success in consolidating votes here is most likely to be replicated nationally.

3. BJP WAY OF PEACE IN DIRECT FIGHT WITH CONGRESS

The Congress’s decimation in Maharashtra also shows how it is losing in direct battles with the BJP.

The results of 76 seats in Maharashtra, where there was a head-on fight between the two, were the most watched. Of these, 36 were in Vidarbhaa region that has been swept by the BJP-led Mahayuti.

The rise of the BJP and the fall of the Congress is visible in what the parties have done in close contests, which reveals a party’s organizational strength and popularity.

The strike rate of the Congress in direct contests with the BJP saw a large jump from 8% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to 30% in 2024. The strike rate of the BJP fell from 92% to 70%.

However, history was reversed in Haryana in Octoberwhere there was a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. The Congress failed to prevent the BJP from forming the government for a record third consecutive term.

The Haryana loss in a straight game came after defeats in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.

The Maharashtra Assembly election result cements this view – the BJP is way ahead of the Congress when it comes to head-to-head fights.

The Maharashtra result for Mahayuti reaffirms that the BJP is a formidable electoral machine. This victory boosts the party’s confidence as it prepares for the 2025 election cycle, starting with Delhi Assembly Elections in February.

4. CONGRESS IS LOSING NEGOTIATING MUSCLE WITH ALLIES

The knives were already out in the INDIA camp for the Congress after its humiliating setback in Haryana. With a blow to the party in the Maharashtra elections, its alliance partners will twist the knife now.

The Congress strike rate in Maharashtra, where it leads in 19 of the 101 seats it contested, was an abysmal 19%.

In Haryana, the Congress did not include the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), an INDIA bloc ally.

A leader in Saamana, Uddhav Sena’s mouthpiece, blamed the Congress’ defeat in Haryana the party’s “overconfidence and arrogance towards the state leadership”.

In Maharashtra too, the Congress tried to play the bigger partner and did not allow Uddhav Thackeray to be projected as the CM face.

A poor show by the Congress in Maharashtra could make several INDIA partners revolt. The first is likely to be AAP, with Delhi elections being the next big test.

With INDIA block registers a victory in Jharkhandit also shows how dependent the Congress is on its regional partners. In Jharkhand, the Congress was the junior partner of the Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).

The BJP is emerging as a stronger power center that can hold on to the NDA partners, while the Congress is proving to be a weak core to hold on to the allies.

5. MIXING OF POPULIST SCHEMES AND INFRA-PUSH

In Maharashtra, major infrastructure projects were also at stake.

The Congress-led MVA tried to woo voters by promising money. Even that forced Mahayuti to promise higher cash guaranteesincluding the flagship Ladki Bahin Yojana.

What the NDA partners got right in the middle of the battle for revisions (poll sops) was a real mix of infrastructure development.

As Mahayuti returns to power, it will go ahead with the concretization of Mumbai roads, the open park at Mahalaxmi Race Course and the Gargai Pinjal water projects.

These projects have been highlighted by the Mahayuti partners.

Had the MVA toppled the Mahayuti government, it would have done so threw a wrench into the Dharavi redevelopment project. Shive Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray said he would cancel the tender for the redevelopment of Dharavi, one of the largest slums in the world, awarded to the Adani Group.

In a way, the result has determined how much the election is determined by populist sops and real development on the ground.

6. ADANI NUMBER AND WINTER SESSION FIREWORKS

Congress MP and Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, promised a heated winter session, which is set to begin on Monday (November 25).

Rahul Gandhi has planned his primary attack on the government indictment against Adani group chairman Gautam Adaniin the United States in an alleged bribery case.

With the loss of face in Maharashtra, where it won only 18 seats, the Congress may lack the spirit for a fiery attack.

At every election rally in Maharashtra, the Congress leader accused the Modi government of crony capitalismby linking it to the Adani Group.

The massive victory of the BJP in Maharashtra proves that such claims do not have an electoral impact. This was also the case in previous opinion polls.

The BJP, seeing that such charges have no voter resonance, can blast the opposition’s attacks to pieces.

From consolidation of Hindu votes to reforms, from infrastructure push to standing among alliance partners, the results of the Maharashtra Assembly elections will have implications for the course and discourse of national politics for some time to come.