UNLV vs San Jose State Predictions, Picks, College Football Week 13 Odds

On November 23, 2024By Littum

With weather expected to affect UNLV’s game against San Jose State, we suggest leaning on this Rebels’ offense, which doesn’t rely on the passing game to move the ball consistently.

November 22, 2024 • 6:56 PM ET

• 4 min reading

Photo by – Imagn Images. Pictured: UNLV Rebels quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams struggles for a first down.

The no. 23 The UNLV Rebels will look to settle for their highest ranking ever of the season when they take on the San Jose State Spartans tonight.

The Rebels are still in the hunt for the Mountain West title, but likely need a win, which will add extra weight to my UNLV vs. San Jose State predictions to Friday, November 22.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET at CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, with the game televised on FS1.

UNLV vs San Jose State prediction and best bet

Who will win UNLV vs San Jose State?

The UNLV Rebels are favored by just over a touchdown on the road. They have lost just once in conference play and that came against the dominant force that is Boise State. The offense is moving and grooving, averaging 39.9 ppg, and the defense has held each of its last four opponents under 30 points.

They are much more efficient on the ground than the San Jose State Spartans, which should be a major factor with rain in the forecast.

My best bet
Pick: Under 62.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Selections made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The forecast calls for rain and wind Friday night at CEFCU Stadium, which should have an impact on how this game plays out. There is a 92% chance of precipitation throughout the contest, with winds of 9.6 to 10.5 mph.

That type of weather forecast might not be very impactful for some teams – usually you’re looking for winds of 13+ to affect the totals, and rain sometimes doesn’t have a negative effect – but it will for these teams.

Ken Niumatalolo has had a hell of a first year with the San Jose State Spartans. His team has reached bowl eligibility despite dealing with a ton of turnover from last season’s co-regular season MWC champion team. Some of that success can be attributed to the shrewd hiring of Craig Stutzmann as offensive coordinator.

Stuzmann has installed a pass-happy scheme affectionately called “Spread-N-Shred”. The Spartans throw for a whopping 343.3 yards per game. game, throws the ball often (second nationally in passing rate) and does so efficiently (19th in both EPA per pass and pass success rate).

That game plan becomes far more difficult when Mother Nature has other ideas. The Spartans basically can’t run the ball, ranking 129th in EPA per rush, and thus likely won’t be at their best if the rain is constant throughout the contest as expected.

On the back end, the UNLV Rebels like to keep the ball on the ground and are in no rush at all offensively. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s Go-Go Offense ranks eighth nationally in rush rate, posting 249.1 yards per carry. fight on the ground. UNLV ranks 70th in plays per minute and will likely look to slow things down on the road with a short week of rest against the lightning-quick Spartans.

While the Rebels will be happy to keep the ball on the ground, this is not a blip in that concern. The Spartans have been effective against opposing ground games, ranking 20th in EPA per game. rush, ranked 25th in rushing success rate and 14th in rushing explosiveness. They’ve been a surprisingly solid unit overall this year, ranking 31st in the EPA as of game.

The Spartans are 1-4 O/U in their last five games. Their attack will be challenged by the elements and they face a team that wants to keep the ball on the ground. I’m betting Under in a game where the weather should play a role.

UNLV vs San Jose State same-game parlay (SGP)

Below 62.5

UNLV -7.5

Justin Lockhart anytime touchdown

UNLV has been a wagon in Mountain West games, easily handling business in every game other than the Boise State and Hawaii contests. The Broncos’ loss was understandable, and it was a close game, whereas the surprisingly narrow 2-point win over Hawaii was still a game in which the Rebels amassed 98 more yards than their opponent.

San Jose State’s metrics have been thrown out of whack by its dominant first three games of the season. The defense has regressed of late, while the offense has gotten a lot of yardage without lighting up the scoreboard and has failed to score more than 24 points in a game since Oct. 5.

While the rain will play a factor in this game overall, a decent number of points are still expected and there is value in San Jose State wide receiver Justin Lockhart’s anytime touchdown plug. He’s seen 6+ targets in every game since Week 3 and has been nearly as efficient as star teammate Nick Nash lately, averaging 130.5 receiving yards over his last four games.

Lockhart received 16 targets last game, taking them to 10 receptions for 172 yards and a score. He has been very efficient, averaging 2.27 yards per carry. route and he will likely see a positive touchdown regression come his way.

Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

More picks from college football and odds from Covers

UNLV vs San Jose State odds

UNLV vs San Jose State live odds

UNLV vs San Jose State opening odds

UNLV vs. San Jose State spread: San Jose State +7.5
UNLV vs. San Jose State money line: UNLV -280, San Jose State +230
UNLV vs. San Jose State Over/Under: 63

Odds provided by BetMGM.

UNLV vs San Jose State spread and Over/Under analysis

San Jose State is 0-5 ATS in its last five conference games.
UNLV has won seven straight road games.
San Jose State is hosting ranked teams on back-to-back weeks for the first time in program history, so it’s fair to say the level of competition has gone up a notch. UNLV is 2-4 O/U in its last six games, with the total in the 60s.
57% of Covers consensus users back UNLV on the spread, while 55% take over.

UNLV vs San Jose State betting trend to know

San Jose State is 1-4 O/U in its last five games. Find more college football betting trends for UNLV vs San Jose State.

How to watch UNLV vs San Jose State

Location:	CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA
Date:	Friday, 11-22, 2024
Kickoff:	10 p.m. ET
TV:	FS1

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UNLV vs San Jose State weather

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