Top picks from the NFL betting divisions for Saturday, December 28

Week 17 of the NFL regular season kicks off today with a tripleheader of Saturday games. Let’s examine where the smart money leans on all three matchups using our VSiN NFL betting splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come straight from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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The Chargers (9-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 34-27 win over the Broncos, covering as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Patriots (3-12) have lost five in a row and fell even to the Bills 24-21, but managed to cover as 14-point road dogs.

The early lookahead opening for this match was Los Angeles -5.5 away. We quickly saw this line adjusted down to the Chargers -4.5. But over the last two days we’ve seen Los Angeles climb back to -5.5 and now the Chargers have moved to -6 on game day. Essentially, all late motion breaks against Los Angeles putting up points. The game day movement is particularly notable as it occurs when the limits are raised and the biggest bets come in. At DraftKings, the Chargers take in 83% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support . At Circa, however, the Patriots receive only 16% of spread bets, but 48% of spread dollars. This means New England is the best contrarian play of the day and also offers buy-low inflated line value of +6.

The Chargers have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team expected to win. Road favorites are 53-39 ATS (58%) this season. The Chargers are likely a popular teaser play (-6 down to a pick’em), meaning they just need to win the game. Road favorites are 71-26 (73%) straight up this season. Los Angeles enjoys a rest advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Patriots played on Sunday. Motivation could also play a role, as the Chargers can clinch a playoff spot with a win, while New England has long been eliminated from postseason contention.

As for the total, we’ve seen it tick up from 39.5 to 42.5. At DraftKings, over 53% of bets and 52% of dollars receive. At Circa, the overflow takes 77% of bets and 64% of dollars. The forecast calls for low 40s with 6 MPH winds and possibly some showers at Gillette Stadium.

The Broncos (9-6) had just had their four-game winning streak end when they fell to the Chargers 34-27 and failed to cover as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (7-8) have won three straight and outscored the Browns 24-6, covering as 10-point home favorites.

This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward the home favorite as the Bengals receive 60% of spread bets at DraftKings and 66% of spread bets at Circa. Thanks to the lopsided support, the Bengals are pushed up -3 (-115), with several shops now hanging -3.5. But once the hook has become available, we’ve seen some resistance and buyback on the Broncos, with Denver up +3.5 (-115). Reading between the lines, it looks like we have dueling respected action at Bengals -3 and Broncos +3.5.

Denver has “bet against the public” value, as the Broncos only take about a third of the tickets in a stand-alone game with very high stakes. The Broncos also have an advantage in rest, having last played on Thursday while the Bengals played on Sunday.

We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here as the total has steamed up from 47.5 to 50, with some books as high as 50.5. At DraftKings, over 66% of bets and 82% of dollars receive. At Circa, the overflow takes 55% of bets and 77% of dollars. Both books show a stark “low stakes, higher dollars” bet split in favor of over. These are two of the best over teams in the NFL, with the Bengals 10-5 over and the Broncos 9-5-1 over.

The Cardinals (7-8) have lost four of their last five games and fell to the Panthers 36-30 in overtime, losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Rams (9-6) have won four straight and just took down the Jets 19-9 and covered as 3-point road favorites.

The early lookahead opening for this game was the Rams -3.5 at home. Since then, however, we’ve seen a big adjustment in favor of Los Angeles, running the Rams up from -3.5 to -6.5. We even saw this line reach Rams -7, at which point some Cardinals +7 buybacks hit the market and dropped the line back to -6.5, where it rests now. At DraftKings, Los Angeles receives 71% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars. At Circa, however, the Cardinals receive 38% of spread bets, but 50% of dollars. Arizona has value as a contrarian division dog as they only take about a third of the tickets in a primetime game in addition to the built-in familiarity that levels the playing field and benefits the team in points.

The Rams will likely be a popular teaser bet (-6.5 to -0.5), meaning they just need to win the game and not cover the spread. The motivation appears to favor Los Angeles, as the Rams are in position to win the division and earn a playoff spot, while the Cardinals have officially been eliminated from playoff contention. This is also a revenge game for the Rams, who were blown out by the Cardinals 41-10 in Week 2.

The pros have also hit below, dropping the total from 49 to 47.5. This downward movement is notable because the public overplays (57% of bets at DraftKings and 67% of bets at Circa), yet sharp reverse line moves forced the numbers to drop. Under would qualify as a contrarian primetime under and division under system match.