Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Prediction: Connor Bazelak’s Swan Song

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have turned what looked like a lost season into an eight-game winning streak, while the Bowling Green Falcons fell just a few games short of a MAC Championship appearance.

Who carries momentum into the offseason and who has let missed opportunities linger? See where we lean in this Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green prediction.

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green 68 Ventures Bowl Betting Preview

All of Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green odds are from DraftKing’s Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, December 26, 2024. The CFN spread comes from the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM dispersion
  Bowling Green -7
• Spread
  Bowling Green -10
• Moneyline
  Bowling Green -360, Arkansas State +285
• Over/Under
  53.5 points
• Game time
  Thursday 26 December at 9 p.m. ET
• Location
  Hancock Whitney Stadium | Mobile, AL
• That’s how you see
  ESPN

While both teams have a few players entering the transfer portal, their rosters are in decent shape heading into the 68 Ventures Bowl. Bowling Green could be without starting right tackle Alex Wollschlaeger and linebacker Jordan Sipp Jr., but star tight end Harold Fannin Jr. expected to play.

MORE: Who has opted not to play in a bowl game? Track them all with our College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker!

The line on this game hasn’t moved much, opening at Bowling Green -7.5 and ticking down to Bowling Green -7. The total has increased from 49.5. Fannin’s decision to play is exciting for Falcons, football fans and players alike.

Arkansas State win probability

CFN’s FPM is right on par with Vegas, making Arkansas State a seven-point underdog. This corresponds to a winning probability of 31.2%.

Bowling Green’s winning probability

On the flip side, the Falcons are moderate favorites with a 68.8% probability of winning. Despite the identical records, Bowling Green is the better team on paper, even though the MAC has struggled in bowl games over the past few seasons.

• vs. Arkansas State: 68.8%

Prediction for Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green

I’m a big fan of analytics, though I rarely dive right into them in these previews. Today I break that habit.

From an analytical standpoint, in small samples, a coach’s record in close games largely comes down to luck. These two teams are a textbook example of that principle.

Both Arkansas State and Bowling Green are 7-5, but they’ve gotten here in completely different ways. Butch Jones’ Arkansas State squad has been outscored by a significant margin this season. When they lose, they lose big – averaging 26.2 points per game. match, including several blowouts.

Meanwhile, their victories have been nail-biters. Six of their wins have come by seven points or fewer, including a controversial Week 1 win over FCS Central Arkansas that hinged on an incorrect call. The Red Wolves have been outscored by 90 points overall this season.

Bowling Green, on the other hand, has struggled in close games going 1-3 in one-score matchups. But with Connor Bazelak at the helm, those close losses include narrow margins to Texas A&M and Penn State.

But when the Falcons win, they win convincingly, which is reflected in their season point differential of +78. Analytically, it points to a significant difference in quality between these two teams. The question is whether Bowling Green can capitalize on it.

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Assuming Fannin plays, I expect the Falcons to move the ball at will against a team that has relied heavily on turnover luck this season. The Red Wolves rank 132nd in yards per carry. rushing yards allowed and 117th in yards per allowed pass.

Now they’re up against the best receiver they’ve faced all year and an offense that protects the ball exceptionally well and ranks 19th nationally in fewest turnovers.

All signs point to a regression to the mean for Arkansas State. While I’m usually cautious about rooting for MAC teams in bowl games, this one is different – ​​I’ve already placed my bet.

Take Bowling Green in a blowout sweep as Butch Jones’ luck runs out. The Falcons are a strong play against a Red Wolves team that is 1-4 against the spread when they get more than a field goal.

Forecast: Bowling Green 37, Arkansas State 20

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