Where can Nolan Arenado be traded? Breakdown of the new market for St. Louis third baseman

Baseball’s annual winter meetings began Sunday with the monumental free-agent signing of Juan Soto by the New York Mets and ended Wednesday with Boston’s blockbuster trade to acquire ace left-hander Garrett Crochet from the Chicago White Sox. After a busy week across the industry, it’s clear that the free-agent and trade markets have been fully activated — and more impactful transactions are certainly on the cards.

The trade and free agent markets are inherently intertwined, with completed signings and trades constantly forcing teams to reassess their paths forward as they try to address the biggest holes in their rosters. When top talent is available at a particular position via both trade and free agency, clubs must decide whether they prefer to acquire talent by offering the biggest and best contract or the most attractive collection of young talent in an industry. And one team’s willingness to go the monetary route — the Yankees, for example, securing Max Fried with the largest free-agent deal ever given to a left-handed pitcher — can affect another’s urgent need to roll in a pitcher who Crochet with a huge view. package.

We’ve already seen this dynamic play out at the top of the starting pitching market, and the third-base market could develop similarly in the coming weeks. With Willy Adames off the board, having signed with the Giants, Alex Bregman is far and away the premier free-agent infielder available. At the same time, it has become increasingly clear in recent weeks — and was much discussed at the winter meetings — that another well-known third baseman might also be obtainable for teams looking for a meaningful infield upgrade: Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado.

Early in the offseason, St. Louis a willingness to trade its three most prominent veterans — Arenado, Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras — and use 2025 as a transition year to reset the roster and get a better sense of which young players will be part of it. of the team’s core in the long term. But since all three have no-trade clauses in their contracts, such deals require permission from the players. And with Gray and Contreras reportedly less likely to be dealt, Arenado — whose agent, Joel Wolfe, has expressed his client’s preference to be traded to a contending team — has emerged as the Cardinals vet most likely to be moved this winter. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has even publicly declared his intention to act the 10-time Gold Glove winner.

If Bregman and his agent, Scott Boras, seek a deal that exceeds the seven-year, $182 million pact Adames received from San Francisco, Arenado — who is owed $74M over the next three seasons — appears as a cost-effective alternative. Of course, it is not nearly so simple that one player costs more than the other. At this stage of their careers, Bregman is clearly the superior player. And given Arenado’s no-trade clause, not just any team will be able to call up the Cardinals and get a deal done.

But before a team even entertains the possibility of whether Arenado would waive his no-trade clause for them, they need to answer a simpler question: How good is this guy, anyway? Because while he requires a smaller financial outlay than Bregman, committing more than $20 million annually for three more years to a soon-to-be 34-year-old third baseman coming off the worst full season of his career is not a decision. should be made easily.

For a decade after his debut with the Rockies in 2013, Arenado’s all-around defense and strong bat kept him comfortably in the inner circle of elite players at his position. But as his production at the plate has declined in St. Louis over the last two years, his overall value has become a very good player rather than a truly outstanding one.

Here are Arenado’s annual fWAR and ranks among primary third basemen in MLB starting with his first All-Star season in 2015:

• 2015: 4.5 (5th)

• 2016: 6.0 (3rd)

• 2017: 5.8 (4th)

• 2018: 5.9 (4th)

• 2019: 6.1 (4th)

• 2020: 0.6 (26th)

• 2021: 4.3 (4th)

• 2022: 7.2 (1st)

• 2023: 2.7 (12th)

• 2024: 3.1 (10th)

Aside from the shortened 2020 season, when Arenado was injured for a while, the pitch is clear: He was one of the best third basemen on the planet for a very long time, but that’s no longer the case. While his defense at the hot corner remains at an exceptionally high level, Arenado’s bat appears to be headed in the wrong direction.

After a monster 2022 season in which he finished third in NL MVP voting, Arenado opened 2023 with one of the worst months of his career, posting a .582 OPS in April. His bat heated up with the weather, hitting .295/.346/.584 with 20 homers in 74 games from early May to late July. But his poor early form resurfaced down the stretch as he hit .184 with just one home run over his final 30 games before ending the year on the disabled list due to back spasms.

While there were hints of top-tier production in the middle months of 2023, 2024 offered fewer encouraging signs for Arenado offensively. Despite playing in 152 games — durability has remained a hallmark of his career — Arenado’s best month was the .807 OPS he posted in August. His .646 OPS against lefties was his worst single-season mark as a major leaguer.

Arenado’s ability to put the ball in play is still well above average — only 11 qualified hitters struck out at a lower clip than Arenado’s 14.5% mark – but his overall contact quality declined significantly in 2024. He recorded career-lows in hard-hit rate (31.6%; 12th percentile in MLB), barrel rate (3 .2%; sixth percentile) ) and average exit velocity (86.3 mph; ninth percentile).

These are worrying trends. But given his still-great glovework at a valuable position and his renowned work ethic and positive clubhouse reputation, Arenado will have interest from suitors.

Which teams could be in the mix for Arenado?

If Arenado is determined to be traded to a certified contender, neither of the defending pennant winners appears to be a realistic option. The Dodgers were rumored as a possible landing spot for the California native in trade discussions earlier in his career, but they are reportedly committed to Max Muncy on the postand understandably so. The Yankees – who not long ago had a bad experience dealing an aging star third baseman in Josh Donaldson – don’t seem particularly interested and could prioritize a pursuit of Bregman to upgrade their infield.

But the Yankees aren’t the only team chasing Bregman. The Tigers, Red Sox and Astros are all supposedly in the mix to sign the star third baseman. Any of those teams could, in theory, turn to Arenado if Bregman were to sign elsewhere, though each faces different obstacles to a potential acquisition.

Detroit may be more willing to make a long-term commitment to a player in Bregman, who is still in his prime and has a strong connection with manager AJ Hinch, but Arenado could provide the veteran presence the Tigers’ ultra-young roster has badly needed. Houston could turn to Arenado as a short-term solution at third should Bregman leave his longtime home. Neither club has been reported as a preferred destination for Arenado, but both would give him a chance to play for a team with October ambitions.

Boston’s interest in Bregman suggests a willingness to move Rafael Devers to first base, an option that was rejected by manager Alex Cora. It’s unclear if such a significant adjustment for the current franchise player would also be made to make room for Arenado. As another option, Steve Cohen’s Mets certainly wouldn’t be intimidated by the money Arenado owes, but they might prefer to stay young at the position, with Brett Baty as the leading candidate, and instead invest more heavily in the pitching staff.

In addition to the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox, the Phillies, Padres and Angels are three other teams that Arenado allegedly interested in being treated, although none seem to be a natural fit. So while Arenado’s landing spot might be limited to those six teams, his no-trade clause gives him and Wolfe the opportunity to work with the Cardinals’ front office to find a preferred destination. Other teams may emerge as viable contenders as negotiations develop.

The Angels — who owe Anthony Rendon nearly $80 million over the next two seasons and are coming off their ninth straight losing season — don’t appear to satisfy Arenado’s desire to be traded for a winning situation. Philadelphia has reportedly been open to moving Alec Bohm, but such a move would have to precede an Arenado acquisition, and Philadelphia doesn’t appear to have much traction on a Bohm trade as things stand.

That Arenado has expressed a willingness to move to first if it means he can play for a contender suggests he could land with a team with a superior option anchored at his position, such as San Diego with Manny Machado. But it’s also hard to imagine a team seeing the value of adding Arenado as a first baseman at his current price, especially if his offensive production continues to decline — let alone a Padres team that isn’t expected to add significant salary this winter.

An Arenado trade appears to be happening eventually, but finding a trade partner isn’t as straightforward as one might assume, and Bregman’s pending decision will affect Arenado’s market one way or another. Should Arenado be dealt, a player who joined the Cardinals via trade from the wayward Rockies with the prospect of playing for a perennial contender would conclude his tenure having won fewer postseason games with the St. Louis (0) than he did with Colorado (1). .

Will the next chapter of Arenado’s career offer more October success? He certainly hopes so. His next team will go a long way in deciding that.